“In terms of political freedoms and human rights and democracy, I think it’s going to be terrible . . . it’s only going to get worse, we’re only going to see more political prisoners moving forward. This might cause academics, civil society, leaders, and journalists to give up the fight moving forward, and I think that would be the worst thing for Turkey.”

Erdoğan is not irrational, which means he also understands something fundamental about Turkey’s NATO membership: it’s part of what gives him his clout. “Turkey’s power very much stems from the fact that it’s in NATO.”

“I think the opposition has calculated that its decision to prioritize the economic issues hasn’t really delivered the victory that they wanted.”

“[Opponents have never been] this close in terms of public sentiment to winning an election, to unseating Erdogan.”

“Given how much control Erdogan has over the judiciary, the bureaucracy, the media and other state institutions, it’s impossible for this to be a fair playing field.”

“Turkey has a very long track record of holding competitive elections…. “So for people from all walks of life, it’s a bare minimum that the country should have a free enough election where people feel, ‘We’ve picked our leader.’”

“I have a lot of confidence in the opposition’s ability to prevent or at least expose election security issues that might come up on Sunday…. They’ve really been prioritizing this issue and have been trying to get pro-opposition or independent monitors at polling stations throughout the country.”

“This election is up for grabs: [Muharrem] Ince’s decision not to run anymore has made it significantly more likely that we will have a winner this Sunday.”

If the AKP tries [to manipulate the vote], Washington’s response will “hugely shape” the future of U.S.-Turkish relations. “People will note how the Biden administration, which talks a big talk about defending democracy, has or has not reacted.”

Kilicdaroglu would bring a different quality of diplomacy were he to be Turkey’s next leader. “I think it will have a huge impact. . . . The fact that Turkey will have a more democratic image will help the US defend that close relationship it has with Turkey.”