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From the POMED Wire
Yesterday’s massive bombing targeting Benazir Bhutto’s convoy only hours after her return to Pakistan may have severe consequences for stability and prospects for reform in Pakistan. President Musharraf condemned the bombing as part of a “conspiracy against democracy.”
Reporters Without Borders has released its World Press Freedom Index for 2007. Iran, Iraq, the Palestinian Territories, and Pakistan rank near the bottom of the list, while U.A.E. and Kuwait are ranked not much lower than the United States…
Over at the Democratic Piece, Andrew Mandelbaum writes of the unique cooperation among diverse Yemeni opposition parties, including the Islamist Islah Party and the Yemeni Socialist Party, drawing attention to their agreement on…
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POMED House Parties
POMED regularly works with individuals who host small get-togethers at their homes to build awareness and support for POMED. If you would like to learn more about hosting such an event, please contact Caroline Brennan at caroline.brennan@pomed.org.
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In order to continue to expand our work, POMED needs your support. Please consider making a donation through our secure, online donation site.
Click Here to Donate to POMED
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| Dear Friends,
It’s been an exciting month for POMED as we continue to grow. Last month we were pleased to co-host an event with Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) that looked at the role of Islamic political parties in recent elections in Morocco and Turkey - and what their participation means for US foreign policy. We were fortunate to have an outstanding group of speakers for the event, and a fascinating discussion ensued following their presentations.
This month, we’re working with Freedom House to put on another important event, on the state of reform in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states.
As champions of human rights and reform, we should all be concerned about how the language of democracy is used in the practice of US foreign policy. When we congratulate countries for holding meaningless elections or enacting nominal reforms, we look foolish, undermine the work of local democracy advocates, and damage our capacity to promote genuine democratic change in the future.
With this in mind, we thought it appropriate to take a serious look at the state of reform in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states - a topic about which much has been written in recent weeks. Among the important questions, we want to ask: How much reform has really taken place in recent years? To what extent have these reforms been implemented, or are likely to be implemented? And what role can the US play in encouraging further political development? We’re looking forward to hearing answers to these and other questions from our distinguished panel.
This event will be held in the Rayburn House Office Building from 2-4pm on Thursday, November 1. For more details including a list of speakers, click here. Space is limited, so please contact us at rsvp@pomed.org if you wish to attend.
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POMED Updates
Event at SAIS on Islamist Political Participation in Turkey and Morocco
On September 27, POMED co-sponsored a panel discussion with the International Development Program at the Johns Hopkins School of International Studies (SAIS), which addressed Islamist political participation in the context of the recent elections in Turkey and Morocco. Moderated by POMED Research Director Shadi Hamid, the discussion looked at the Parliamentary elections in Morocco on September 7 and the summer parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey, focusing particularly on the performance of the Islamist PJD in Morocco and the AK Party in Turkey.
Anthony Chang, Deputy Director for the Europe Division of the International Republican Insititute (IRI), used IRI polling data from Turkey to paint a picture of Turkish society and demonstrate that some fears surrounding the AKP are not warranted. Matthew Frumin, Senior Advisor at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), drawing on his recent experience with the international mission to assess and monitor the Moroccan elections, highlighted the message sent by the low voter turnout that “people need for this [political] process to be more meaningful…if they are going to engage.” Century Foundation fellow Geneive Abdo cautioned against applying too many lessons from these two countries to Islamist politics across the Arab world. She used the cases of Egypt and Jordan to highlight differences among Islamist political movements including views on Islamic Sharia law, stance on gender issues, and degree of experience in public life.
More detailed notes of the panel discussion are available here, and the audio from the full event is available from SAIS here. See below for more POMED coverage of the Moroccan elections.
POMED Interview with Tunisian Democracy Activist Sihem Bensedrine
In early September, POMED had the opportunity to sit down with longtime democracy and human rights activist Sihem Bensedrine to discuss the state of political freedoms, oppression, and political reform in North Africa. Ms. Bensedrine is the founder and spokesperson for the National Council for Liberties in Tunisia (CNLT), one of the two primary NGOs devoted to issues of democracy and human rights in Tunisia. She is also the founder and editor of the prominent online newspaper Kalima.
In the poignant interview, Ms. Bensedrine discussed the effects of the internet on freedom of expression and particularly the crippling effects of U.S. support for Tunisia’s authoritarian ruler, General Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, on local efforts for reform, declaring that,
“The problem for us is that, if our dictator was alone, and we only had to fight against our dictator, then we know how to do this. But when our dictator is supported by the large democratic countries, then we have to fight the whole world, and it’s too much for us.”
The full transcript of the interview is available here.
POMED on Moroccan Elections
On September 7, Morocco held parliamentary elections, in which the biggest story was the voter turnout of 37%, considerably lower than reported for any previous Moroccan election. POMED Policy Associate James Liddell, based in Rabat, provided a series of election previews looking at the Moroccan electoral system, indicators of disillusionment and feared low turnout, and the increasing division of society into “two Moroccos,” as well as this post-election assessment.
In addition, POMED Research Director Shadi Hamid and Research Assistant Jeb Koogler wrote this article at the American Prospect online, analyzing the election, the low turnout, and its significance for political progress in Morocco. Their piece drew criticism in the Moroccan French-language daily newspaper, TelQuel, and James Liddell provided this response.
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Turkish Democracy Weathers a Storm, But Challenges Lie Ahead
By Alex Taurel, POMED Policy Associate
Turkey’s democracy emerged stronger this summer following a severe political crisis triggered by the bid of the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP in Turkish) to elevate the foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, to the presidency, which was vehemently opposed by the country’s military and secular establishment. In April, pro-secular forces in the military, judiciary, and the political opposition mobilized to express their disapproval of Gul’s candidacy, with the military ominously warning that it might intervene. A full-fledged crisis had emerged over who would be the country’s next president, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for early parliamentary elections to defuse the situation.
Nearly 47 percent of Turks cast their vote for Erdogan’s AKP on July 22, awarding a fresh mandate to the party that has helped Turkey, a notoriously unstable country, achieve considerable political and economic stability. Since the AKP came to power in 2002, Turkey has enjoyed unprecedented economic growth and relatively low levels of corruption. And nearly 20 years after first applying to join the European Union’s forerunner organization, Turkey finally began formal accession negotiations with the EU in October 2005. Though many are understandably frustrated by the halting pace of negotiations with Brussels, most voters credit the AKP for getting Turkey to this point.
Challenges Ahead
As developments in the last few weeks have amply demonstrated, all is not well in Turkey. The country faces a number of challenges, including grappling with heightened attacks by the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); overcoming the impasse that currently marks accession negotiations with the EU; and de-escalating political tensions between the AKP government and pro-secular forces.
The AKP government is under tremendous pressure to deal with the threat posed by the PKK, which has ramped up attacks in Turkey since establishing a safe haven in Iraqi Kurdistan. Last week Turkey once again raised the specter of an invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan to combat the PKK, which would destabilize the only relatively secure area of Iraq, a move the U.S opposes. But given Washington’s inability or unwillingness either to deal with the PKK itself or to apply pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government to rein in the separatist group, Ankara may feel compelled to act unilaterally, come what may.
Not only would a unilateral invasion of northern Iraq greatly complicate relations with the Americans; it would also jeopardize Turkey’s chances of joining the EU. The prospect of joining the European club has underpinned many of the democratic reforms Turkey has passed this decade, including easing restrictions on freedom of the press, association, and expression; protecting and promoting the rights of the Kurdish minority; and banning torture during police interrogations. Without a reward in sight, the Turkish government may be unable to muster the political will necessary to continue passing reforms or even maintain the current ones.
Exacerbating both of these challenges for the AKP government are existing tensions with the Kemalists, the authoritarian secular-nationalist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk-modern Turkey’s founder and first president-that dominate the military, judiciary, and civil service. The Kemalists are highly mistrustful of the intentions of the AKP, which has an Islamist pedigree, and are incensed by the August 28 parliamentary election of Gul, a former Islamist whose wife wears an Islamic headscarf, to the position of president that Ataturk once held. In the last fifty years the military has deposed numerous governments that have strayed too far from secularism for their taste. But a military coup now would almost certainly destroy Turkey’s EU chances, which, somewhat counter-intuitively, would please many Kemalists, who worry that Islamist forces plan to take advantage of Europe’s freedom of religion to bring Islam into the public square. Similarly damaging for Turkey’s EU prospects-as well as its already-fragile relationship with the US-would be a unilateral invasion of northern Iraq, which the military and its nationalist allies are advocating as a solution to Turkey’s Kurdish problems.
Recommendations for US policymakers
The United States should continue to push for a diplomatic solution to the PKK threat emanating from northern Iraq. Ankara and Baghdad signed a pact in late September coordinating their counter-terrorism activities, and Washington should encourage both sides to continue the security dialogue. The US should also press the AKP government to stick with its inclusive, multiculturalist approach to dealing with the Kurds in southeast Turkey, where the party’s efforts translated into a sizeable share of the region’s votes in the July parliamentary elections.
The United States should continue privately pressuring the Europeans to move forward in accession negotiations with Turkey. The French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, said in September that the Sarkozy government will not block Turkey’s accession negotiations-an apparent softening of Sarkozy’s electoral campaign position strongly opposing Turkey’s entry, which some diplomatic sources have credited to US behind-the-scenes lobbying.
Finally, the United States should encourage all actors in Turkish politics to play by the rules of the democratic game. The US wavered in its commitment to democracy by initially remaining silent on the Turkish General Staff’s threatening statement of April 28 that they would “fulfill their duties” as “defenders of secularism,” which represented an improper intrusion into Turkey’s democratic process. Going forward, the US should press the military to stay in the barracks. And Turkey’s currently flagging secular parties should be encouraged to modernize their message and political program to better compete with the AKP in the marketplace of ideas, rather than relying on its allies in the armed forces to confront Islamist forces through military coups, as they have done so often in the past.
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Legislative Update
Having been the final month of Fiscal Year 2007, September was expected to be dominated by debate over the possible inclusion of withdrawal deadlines or timetables in appropriations bills to continue funding for the Iraq war. In the end, the House and Senate failed to agree on any of the twelve annual appropriations bills for fiscal year 2008, and instead passed the short-term continuing resolution H.J.Res.52, funding all programs including war spending at current levels through November 16. Accordingly, recent debate was less focused than expected on troop withdrawal deadlines, but nonetheless Iraq remained the top foreign policy focus of Congress, with a variety of resolutions introduced or passed attempting to influence U.S. strategy in Iraq. Other legislative events of the past month have focused on Iran, as well as a controversial bill recognizing the Armenian genocide of the early 20th century.
Iraq
Several amendments to spending bills that would have set deadlines for the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq, such as S.AMDT.3164, proposed by Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) to amend H.R. 3222, were eventually withdrawn before passage of the seven-week continuing spending bill. In the wake of the recent controversy surrounding the killing of Iraqi civilians by Blackwater contractors, the House passed a bill, H.R. 2740, sponsored by Rep. David Price (D-NC), that would make private contractors supporting military operations outside the United States subject to punishment for crimes that would warrant imprisonment of more than one year if committed inside the U.S. The Senate has not yet taken up this bill.
Several non-binding resolutions have been recently passed expressing the sense of Congress with regard to the war in Iraq. This includes the Senate Amendment 2997, proposed by Sen. Joseph Biden on federalism in Iraq, calling on the international community to support “an agreement on a comprehensive political settlement based on the creation of federal regions within a united Iraq.” This amendment to H.R. 1585, the Defense Authorization bill for fiscal year 2008, was passed by a vote of 75-23 on September 26.
The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a recent hearing on the state of corruption in Iraq, and Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) has expressed strong frustration with State Department policy of not commenting publicly on Iraqi corruption. Waxman addressed these concerns in a letter to Secretary of State Rice in late September, and by introducing H.Res.734, urging the withdrawal of a directive prohibiting U.S. Federal Government officials from making public statements “which judge or characterize the quality of Iraqi governance or the ability/determination of the Iraqi government to deal with corruption.”
A pair of bills have been recently introduced in the House (H.R. 3797) and the Senate (S. 2130) urging the President to undertake regional diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to help broker national reconciliation in Iraq. The House bill proposed by Rep. David E. Price (D-NC) requires a regional diplomatic plan to bring together Iraq’s neighbors and the international community to address the key challenges facing Iraq and the region, and also creates a Presidential Special Envoy for Iraq Regional Security. The Senate bill proposed by Sen. Robert P. Casey, Jr. (D-PA) is a non-binding resolution calling for similar diplomatic steps.
Iran
Debate in Congress continued over how to deal with the potential threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons program and concern over the role of Iran in contributing to instability in Iraq. The most significant bill addressing Iran was the Kyl-Lieberman amendment to the Defense Authorization bill for fiscal year 2008 (Section 1538, pages 780-787 of H.R. 1585). After animated debate, the bill was passed by a 76 - 22 vote in the Senate. The bill includes a call for the Department of State to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization, a clause that some, including Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), fear could be interpreted as de facto authorization for the use of military force against Iran.
Before passage, Senators Lieberman and Kyl dropped paragraphs 3 and 4 under Section (b) (see original text of the amendment), stating that “it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and “support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq…with respect to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Other attempts to address Iran included the proposal of H.Con.Res.203, sponsored by Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R-IL) to condemn the persecution of labor rights advocates in Iran, as well as H.R.3653, introduced by Rep. Gus M. Bilirakis (R-FL) to hold the current regime in Iran accountable for its human rights record and to support a transition to democracy in Iran. This bill would also establish a special envoy for human rights in Iran within the Department of State.
Armenian Genocide Resolution
The passage by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs of a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turks in the early 20th century sparked fears of decreased Turkish cooperation with U.S. foreign policy, particularly in Iraq. The bill, H.Res.106, sponsored by Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-CA), calls upon the President “to ensure that the foreign policy of the United States reflects appropriate understanding and sensitivity concerning issues related to human rights, ethnic cleansing, and genocide documented in the United States record relating to the Armenian Genocide,” and was passed by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs by a vote of 27 - 21. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) had previously declared their intention to bring the bill to a vote on the House floor, but they now appear to be hesitating, as support for the bill in the House is reported to be declining.
Outlook
Congress has extended funding at FY 2007 levels through November 16. The question now remains whether the House and Senate will reach agreement on the annual appropriations bills by this time or perhaps pass one more stopgap extension, setting up the passage of an omnibus spending bill before adjourning the session. Differing versions of five of the twelve appropriations bills, including the State and Foreign Operations bill, have been passed by the House and the Senate, and it remains to be seen how the Conference Committee may resolve differences in the bill. It will also be interesting to see whether the debate over deadlines for withdrawals from Iraq is renewed at this time or delayed until spring.
In addition, one issue that has been relatively dormant since early August is the $20 billion deal proposed by the White House in July to sell arms to Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states. Some Members of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs have expressed surprise that the White House has not yet begun the mandatory consultation process with Congress regarding the deal, and note that the calendar will force the White House to take action soon. In addition, it appears that a Joint Resolution of Disapproval of the deal will be proposed in the House as soon as the details are officially announced, though it remains to be seen whether such a resolution will be taken up by the Committee on Foreign Affairs. On November 1, POMED will be co-sponsoring an event with Freedom House that will address the state of political reform and human rights in the Arab Gulf states in the context of this proposed arms deal (see above).
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