Mauritania: Council Rejects Anti-terrorism Law
March 8th, 2010 by Josh
Following an appeal by 32 opposition members of parliament, a constitutional court declared that ten articles of Mauritania’s new terrorism law — instituted to combat Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb — are illegal under Mauritanian law. The unconstitutional provisions allow for, among other things, “preventive detention of terrorist suspects for 15 days and recording of telephone conversations and their e-mails and those of persons connected with them.” Although Prime Minister Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf defended the government’s good intentions when formulating the terrorism act, he deferred to the court and said that “we respect and abide by the decision.”
Posted in Mauritania, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Democracy Promotion: Anti-terrorism Tool?
March 4th, 2010 by Josh
“Decoupling support for democracy from the broader effort to combat terrorism and religious extremism in the Middle East would be a costly strategic misstep,” say Shadi Hamid and Steven Brooke in a feature for the latest edition of the Hoover Institution’s Policy Review. Surveying a number of reports and academic works, they conclude that political repression breeds violent extremism and that those who commit acts of terrorism are more likely to come from repressive authoritarian states.
Further, Hamid and Brooke argue that the failed Bush administration agenda to promote Middle East democracy was not a reflection of shoddy theorizing, but rather the result of insufficient and poorly resourced policies that, aside from a short period following the 2003 Iraq invasion, did little more than issue rhetorical support for democratic reforms. They propose reformulating the U.S. democratization strategy to include more stringent aid conditionality, greater funding for the Middle East Partnership Initiative and the Millennium Challenge Account, and new initiatives to unite Islamist and secular groups under pro-democracy platforms.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Reform, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Voting Begins Amidst Deadly Attacks
March 4th, 2010 by Josh
As thousands of soldiers, police officers, and security officials went to polls today for early voting, three separate attacks killed at least twelve people at voting stations in Baghdad. This comes after a larger attack on Wednesday that killed nearly three dozen. Still, despite the fear in some circles that the recent uptick in violence might delay the U.S. withdrawal, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell assured reporters that the president’s timeline remains unchanged, saying that “it would take an extraordinarily dire turn of events for [a delay] to be something we were to consider.”
However, the first day of voting was marred by more than just violence; thousands of citizens complained that their names were missing from the registration rolls, prompting the government to announce that anyone unable to find his or her name would be granted a provisional ballot.
Over at the National, Nir Rosen addresses “foreign analysts and reporters” who fear a civil war 2.0 by reiterating his earlier pronouncement that Iraq’s emerging stability will, in his opinion, preclude a return to sectarian violence. But Gregg Carlstrom counters, saying that there is a legitimate concern that “the de-Ba’athification crisis is an indicator of unresolved tensions — and that those tensions, coupled with Iraq’s crushing poverty and severe refugee crisis and lackluster government performance (all of which Rosen chronicles quite well), will lead to unpredictable long-term consequences.”
Elsewhere, the Arab Reform Bulletin has posted two new articles, both of which focus on Iraq and various post-election concerns. Salem Mashkour, an Iraqi journalist and candidate on the ballot, delineates the proliferation of viable political “blocs” since the 2005 contest, saying that he would not be surprised to see a cross-sectarian coalition emerge from the March 7 poll. The Bulletin’s other piece, written by professor Abbas Kadhim of the Naval Postgraduate School, chronicles the social, economic, and political consequences of Iraq’s pervasive corruption.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Military, Political Parties, Publications, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Goldstone Report: UN Votes to Extend Time
March 1st, 2010 by Josh
Via the Majlis, the UN General Assembly voted 98-7 to grant both the Israelis and Palestinians five additional months to investigate the findings from the Goldstone Report. Although a Palestinian Authority official applauded the action as a victory for both the Palestinians and international law, Alejandro Wolff, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN, criticized the resolution and reiterated the administration’s position that the report is deeply flawed (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also briefly addressed this issue in response to a question from Congressman Gary Ackerman at last week’s HCFA hearing). You can read the full GA resolution here.
Posted in Hamas, Human Rights, Israel, Military, Palestine, Terrorism, United Nations | Comment »
Libya: Snapshot of the Regime, Prospects for Reform
February 24th, 2010 by Josh
In an interesting feature for Reason’s March issue, Michael Moynihan draws upon his recent trip to Tripoli in order to elucidate what he views as Libya’s continuing stagnation despite both its tremendous oil wealth and recent efforts to engage in dialogue with the West. Highlighting notable contradictions between the government’s rhetoric of reform and ground-level realities, Moynihan recounts a number of conversations with ex-terrorists who, although touted by the government as fully rehabilitated, were actually taken off death-row or promised reduced prison sentences in exchange for renouncing political violence and aiding anti-terrorism investigations. One such individual, claiming he “saw the light” and had abandoned Islamism to work for Colonel Qaddafi’s government, defended Libya’s freedom of the speech and journalistic diversity — but when asked if one would be allowed to print an anti-Qaddafi slogan, he recoiled questioned why anyone would do that, which Moynihan interprets as an unintentional barometer of Libya’s true level of liberalism.
Despite these encounters, Moynihan retains some hope that Saif Qaddafi, Muammar Qaddafi’s son and presumed heir, will issue in a new generation of leaders that will “loosen their chokehold on power in exchange for a seat at the adult table of international politics.” But the current wave of superficial and cosmetic reforms, he says, “have brought [the Libyan people] no closer to the representative democracy Qaddafi promised 40 years ago.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Libya, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: New Violence Reaction to Ban on Parliamentary Candidates?
February 2nd, 2010 by Jessica
The New York Times reports on yesterday’s suicide bombing on the outskirts of Baghdad, in which approximately 38 people were killed and many more wounded. Despite official pledges to increase security surrounding the annual pilgrimage, the Times quotes one of the wounded victims, “The security forces are responsible because they were not searching anyone.” In response to the attack, Maj. Gen. Qassim Atta al-Moussawi announced that some 134 soldiers and officers would face charges of dereliction of duty and negligence possibly resulting in their court martial, though several accounts of the incident indicate that the bomb was detonated in an area where women were being searched.
Though no one has claimed responsibility, Iraqpundit suggests that the attack, aimed at Shi’a pilgrims, is an escalation of tensions related to the parliamentary elections scheduled for March. He theorizes that the attacks are in response to the exclusion from the upcoming elections of more than 500 candidates based on religious affiliations. The author questions the wisdom of the U.S. and UN position that the Iraq elections are an internal problem, pointing out that submitting to the power of a few corrupt individuals within the government may shift Iraq’s democracy “into another farce of a political system like other countries that claim to be democratic in the region.”
News of the attacks coincide with reports that prominent candidate Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risha has threatened to boycott the upcoming election in response to the governments ban of 500 candidates from the ballot. Abu Risha is the head of the Sahwa, or Awakening, and one of the strongest U.S. allies in the region. An AP report quotes Abu Risha on Iraqi participation in the election should so many remain banned from the election, “They will not care about the election - they will ignore it, maybe if these decisions stand.” While some of the 500 candidates have been reinstated, some 456 remain banned. Of those, seven belong to Abu Risha’s Awakening Council and 70 others are candidates within the Unity Alliance of Iraq political coalition, which Abu Risha also helps lead.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Reform, Terrorism | Comment »
Afghanistan: Taliban Intensifies Attacks in Advance of International Conference
January 19th, 2010 by Jessica
Dexter Filkins of the New York Times reports in an article entitled, “Kabul Attack Shows Resilience of Afghan Militants,” on the attack made by Taliban militants early Monday morning in the city of Kabul. According to Filkins’ article a total of five people were killed during the course of the attacks with another 71 being injured. The assault, consisting of a group of militants and two suicide bombers, took place in a busy city center in the middle of Kabul. The primary of target of the attacks was the Central Bank, though the Presidential Palace and the Ministry of Justice, both located in Pashtunistan Square, were in close proximity to the area under assault. In response to the attacks several hundred Afghan soldiers were deployed.
Filkins reports that the assault is the most recent operation in a series of incidents designed to instill a sense of panic among the citizens of Kabul. Filkins also comments that urban centers were targeted due to the concentration of U.S. troops in the rural countryside, and that this concentration as led to a recent upsurge in assaults concentrated in urban locals.
The assaults lasted approximately 5 hours, leaving a popular Afghan shopping area in ruins. Of the seven Taliban carrying out the attacks, 2 were suicide bombers, the remaining 5 were killed during the course of the following conflict. Spokesmen for the Taliban greatly exaggerated the number of militants carrying out the assault, reporting that approximately 20 suicide bombers had been dispersed to the city’s center and that some 40 plus government officials had been killed.
Taliban representatives stated that the attacks were in response to American and Afghan proposals to “reconcile and reintegrate Taliban fighters into mainstream society.” This proposal, an essential tenet of Obama’s plan for peace in Afghanistan, was meant to be revealed later this month at the International Conference on Afghanistan in London. The conference is designed to bring Afghan leaders and the international community together in order to discuss the strategies for democracy and development in Afghanistan. Policymakers will develop milestones for improving the Afghan government with followup conferences to take place Kabul designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the aforementioned milestones.
Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Taliban, is quoted in response to the proposed policy as saying, “We are ready to fight, and we have the strength to fight, and nobody from the Taliban side is ready to make any kind of deal.”
Evan Hill in his post entitled, “Taliban Launches Raid in Kabul; Gov’t says 5 dead 38 wounded,” urges that the January 18th assault not hinder U.S. and Afghan plans to reintegrate members of the Taliban back into society. Hill comments, “It might be a slap in the face, but it doesn’t seem to me as if an assault by a few dozen fanatics undermines the entire effort to bring certain Taliban back into society.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Taliban, Terrorism | Comment »
Jordan: Islamists Challenge Government over Role in Afghanistan
January 14th, 2010 by Josh
Via the New York Times, Jordanian Islamists recently issued a statement titled, “It Is Not Our War,” in which they decry Jordanian participation in, and cooperation with, U.S. military operations in the Afghan theater. In addition to calling for the withdrawal of Jordanian forces from Afghanistan, they demanded “an end to the policy of what is called cooperation or security coordination with the Zionist enemy or the American intelligence agencies.” The Times noted that the deadly suicide attack on CIA operatives carried out by Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al-Balawi, a Jordanian doctor, spurred a round of heated internal debate as various segments of society found themselves caught between two national interests: Jordanian pride and American partnership. In fact, political analyst Hasan Abu Hanieh described a largely confused population who “[did] not even know that there are Jordanian forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Zaki Saad, a former director of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political wing in Jordan, blamed the government for initiating policies that drove “radical young people into the arms of Al Qaeda.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Islamist movements, Jordan, Military, Muslim Brotherhood, Terrorism | Comment »
Iraq: A Critical Year Ahead
December 22nd, 2009 by Jason
Kenneth Pollack warns that “while [Iraq] has made tremendous progress in both the security and political realms, all of those gains are fragile and could evaporate quickly if strained.” Pollack argues “the mistake we are in danger of making in Iraq is that as our military steps back, our civilians are not always stepping up.” If Iraqis begin to question our resolve, then ordinary Iraqis will have no choice but to support militias who might protect them in what they perceive as an impending civil war.
Fareed Zakaria also warns against forgetting the war in Iraq, contending that while the surge was a military success, Iraq has yet to resolve its fundamental political differences that preclude a stable future. Therefore, the Obama administration should maximize this opportunity to realize Iraq’s potential as an “extraordinary model for the Arab world.” While more pessimistic than Zakaria, Andrew Sullivan agrees this year will be “critical” in determining the ultimate success or failure of the war in Iraq.
John Hannah responds to the Iranian incursion into Iraqi territory. He argues that the incident proves that the Iraqi government is increasingly confident in protecting its sovereignty and Iraq has the potential to emerge as a “central pillar” in America’s struggle against violent Islamist extremism. Given the “flaccid U.S. response” to the incident, Hannah urges to “do far more to support our Iraqi friends.” While the incident has since died down, George Friedman argues Iran showed it might not wait for the U.S. to initiate a conflict. Now that Prime Minister Maliki has proven he is not an Iranian puppet but an Iraqi patriot, Hussain Abdul-Hussain argues the Gulf countries should “embrace a neighbor currently emerging from years of tyranny followed by civil strife.”
Finally, the AP reports a suicide bomber in northern Iraq has killed a city council chief, a member of the Turkmen minority affiliated with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Yemen: The Need for a Broader Perspective?
December 22nd, 2009 by Jason
Time Magazine explores the potential fallout from U.S. assistance in strikes and raids against Al-Qaeda militants in Yemen. The article quotes Gregory Johnsen who warns “you can’t just go kill a few individuals and the al-Qaeda problem will go away,” especially when such attacks result in civilian casualties. As Mohammad Quhtan of Yemen’s opposition Islamist al-Islah party explains, “Al-Qaeda will be able to recruit a lot more young people, at least from the tribes that were hit.”
Instead, Johnsen repeats his call for (see our previous post) a broader American foreign policy that will undermine Al-Qaeda. He points to a Reuters article that describes how, in addition to al-Qaeda, falling oil income, water shortages, humanitarian crises, the Houthi conflict, and a southern separatist movement all contribute to Yemen’s instability.
Posted in Middle Eastern Media, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Yemen: U.S. Assisted Raids on al-Qaeda
December 21st, 2009 by Jason
The Washington Post reports that the U.S. “provided intelligence and other assistance to Yemeni forces in attacks Thursday against suspected al-Qaeda targets.” According to The New York Times, President Obama approved the request for support from the Yemeni government for the raids which killed at least 34 militants.
Waq al-Waq worries that the U.S. is not only providing assistance against al-Qaeda, but against the Houthis as well, which he calls a “mistake.” In addition, he questions the success of the raids given the high number of civilian casualties,the blowback in the Yemeni press, and the failure to kill the main target, Qasim al-Raymi. Instead, he urges the U.S. to do “a lot more prep work and development work to […] undermine al-Qaeda.” Finally, he points to a report by Alistair Harris and Michael Page that warns against narrowly focusing on al-Qaeda to the exclusion of the other problems that confront Yemen.
Meanwhile, a Houthi spokesman is claiming Saudi air strikes killed 54 civilians, as local tribal sources have informed that the rebel leader Abdul Malak al-Houthi has been seriously injured. Neither of these reports have been confirmed independently.
Posted in Military, Publications, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen, al-Qaeda | 1 Comment »
Iraq: Iranian Troops Enter Contested Oil Field
December 18th, 2009 by Jason
Iraq officials have confirmed that Iranian soldiers have entered Iraqi territory and claimed an oilfield whose ownership is disputed by Iran. A U.S. military spokesman stated “there has been no violence related to this incident and we trust this will be resolved through peaceful diplomacy between the governments of Iraq and Iran.”
During a trip to Iraq, Admiral Mullen affirmed that the Iraq drawdown will proceed as scheduled, despite delayed elections and a recent spike in bombings. Meanwhile, Iraqi forces are on alert after threats of violence during the coming Christmas holiday.
IraqPundit relays a conversation he had with laborers from Sadr City who expressed their discontent with Moktada al-Sadr as well as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Instead, they plan to vote for Nouri al-Maliki “because he is not an extremist.” At the same time, IraqPundit reveals that many “Iraqis are disappointed in al-Maliki because he has presided over an extremely corrupt government, and he has failed to prevent terror attacks.”
The New York Times editorial staff warns that “the bitter discord between Iraq’s Kurdish regional government and the Shiite-Arab dominated central government - over land, oil and the power of the central government - is the most dangerous fault line in Iraq today.” Therefore, the situation calls for “deft and sustained American involvement.”
Finally, Peter Galbraith has written a statement clarifying his activities in Kurdistan concerning his role in advising the formation of the constitution and the negotiation of oil deals.
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, Secularism, Terrorism, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
Yemen: Al Qaeda Killed, Captured
December 17th, 2009 by Jason
Al Arabiya reports that Yemeni security forces have killed 34 al-Qaeda militants and arrested 17 more , foiling several planned terrorist attacks. However, Gregory Johnsen at Waq al-Waq worries that the number of innocent people killed in the raids will “create a problem for the government with regards to retaliatory attacks in the future.” Furthermore, he observes it’s not clear that all the militants killed were, in fact, members of al-Qaeda.
Joost Hiltermann contends in Foreign Affairs that the Houthi rebellion is misunderstood, arguing the “insurgency is more a reaction to a dysfunctional government than an inspired, centralized ideological movement.” In fact, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi gained his popularity because “he voiced popular discontent about the Yemeni political system - its corruption and perpetuation of social inequalities, its allegiance to Saudi and U.S. foreign policy objectives, its support of Salafi encroachment, and its repression of Zaydi revivalists.” As such, Hiltermann warns that Saudi intervention will only exacerbate the conflict.
Yesterday, Houthi rebels accused the U.S. Air Force of cooperating with the Yemeni government in an attack that killed at least 120 people. The U.S. has not responded to the accusation. At the same time, Human Rights Watch has criticized the Yemeni government for abusing the human rights of southern Yemeni secessionists.
Posted in Human Rights, Islamist movements, Military, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Iraq: Security Forces Involved in Bombings
December 17th, 2009 by Jason
Reuters reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki admitted that at least 45 Iraqi security force members were involved in the attacks last week that killed over 100 people. Maliki assured the attacks would not affect the U.S. withdrawal or plans to hold elections in March. His speech comes as ministerial buildings in Baghdad and Mosul were once again targeted by attacks this Tuesday, killing nine people.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Military, Terrorism | Comment »
Nobel: Obama’s Speech and Reaction
December 12th, 2009 by Jason
President Obama accepted his Nobel Peace Prize yesterday in Oslo, Norway. In his acceptance speech (full text), Obama affirmed that the award “speaks to our highest aspirations - that for all the cruelty and hardship of our world, we are not mere prisoners of fate. Our actions matter, and can bend history in the direction of justice.” Throughout the speech, Obama balanced the tension between the aspiration for peace and the necessity of war.
President Obama reminded the audience that America’s historical leadership in “constructing an architecture to keep the peace” that has advanced “the ideals of liberty, self-determination, equality and the rule of law.” Through the sacrifice and service of its citizens, the United States has promoted peace, prosperity and democracy “not because we seek to impose our will” but out of “enlightened self-interest, because we seek a better future for our children and grandchildren, and we believe that their lives will be better if other peoples’ children and grandchildren can live in freedom and prosperity.”
Elaborating further, President Obama explained that peace is not simply a lack of conflict, but rather it must “based upon the inherent rights and dignity of every individual.” Therefore, President Obama promised that “even as we respect the unique culture and traditions of different countries, America will always be a voice of those aspirations that are universal.” Because that voice sometimes must be delivered directly to authoritarian regimes, Obama rejected “sanctions without outreach, and condemnation without discussion [that] can carry forward a crippling status quo.” As such, the world “must try as best we can to balance isolation and engagement; pressure and incentives, so that human rights and dignity are advanced over time.”
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Posted in Afghanistan, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, EU, Freedom, Human Rights, Military, Multilateralism, Neocons, Terrorism, US foreign policy, US politics, al-Qaeda, sanctions | Comment »
Iraq: Political Fallout After Violence
December 10th, 2009 by Jason
Secretary Gates made an unannounced visit to Iraq today to discuss the upcoming parliamentary elections in March. At the same time, the Pentagon clarified today that Iraq’s decision to delay elections until March 7th will not affect the American withdrawal timetable. President Obama has declared combat operations will end August 31, 2010, with a full withdrawal by the end of 2011.
But Gates’ visit comes as Iraq attempts to cope with a series of bloody attacks. The AP reports Prime Minister al-Maliki has replaced Baghdad’s head military commander as he called for patience amongst the angry Iraqi public. Al-Maliki will attend a special session of parliament to investigate the security failure. According to the article, the political fallout “reveals a stark psychological shift among Iraqis who once accepted such violence as routine and are now demanding someone pay a political price.”
The New York Times reports the attacks have “undermined public faith in the government by exposing the deep divisions within Iraq’s security forces […] the public has come to view security as little more than an extension of politics.” According to security officials, many members of the “security forces are more loyal to political parties than to the state.”
IraqPundit details the disagreement amongst average Iraqis over who is to blame for the attacks. However, he contends, “one thing everyone agreed on is the parliament will be completely replaced” on the March 7 elections. Marc Santora at the At War blog observes that determining responsibility for such attacks has become more complicated “as the American role here fades, as the regional power struggle intensifies and as the political campaign ahead of national elections scheduled for March gains momentum.” Duraid Adnan tells how the violence in Iraq has personally touched his life.
Finally, an Iraqi government spokesman announced residents of Camp Ashraf would be moved to buildings in Baghdad this Tuesday.
Posted in Iran, Iraq, Military, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, Syria, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Iraq: Elections Delayed Again
December 9th, 2009 by Jason
In the wake of a series of large bombs that killed 127 people, wounded 500 more, and damaging government buildings, Iraq’s presidency council announced that parliamentary elections will now be held on March 7th. Officials said the decision was made independent of political considerations. Juan Cole reports the bombs targeted both the ministries of interior and finance and parliament will investigate “this serious lapse in security.”
Ranj Alaaldin argues the violence reflects Iraq’s “political problems and also the geopolitical realities,” especially as its neighbors show “no enthusiasm for a stable and democratic Iraq.” Ultimately, Iraq will not be stable until “Iraqi politics truly starts to cross ethnic and sectarian boundaries.” Andrew Sullivan is concerned that the neoconservatives will push to extend the American presence in Iraq given its recent setbacks.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Neocons, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Afghanistan: More Hill Testimony
December 9th, 2009 by Jason
General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry testified about the new Afghan strategy before the Armed Service Committees in both the House and Senate yesterday. They will continue their testimony on the Hill both today and tomorrow.
According to Chris Good at The Atlantic, General McChrystal’s prediction of success in Afghanistan was couched in “a healthy amount of humility.” McChrystal argued that a combination of the resolve of the Afghans, the unpopularity of the Taliban, the evidence of recent ISAF success in providing better security and goverannce, and the Afghan support for the ISAF mission all portend the potential for success. But Dana Miliband notes that McChrystal managed a “careful linguistic dance” to avoid uttering the actual word victory, defining success instead as the ability for the Afghans to win for themselves.
Anatol Lieven and Maleeha Lodhi in The New York Times don’t see much of a chance for success at all. They therefore argue “it is essential that the U.S. plan incorporate a political strategy aimed at Afghan national reconciliation - and that plan should involve negotiations with the Taliban.” Azeem Ibrahim also calls for negotiations with the Taliban and allow “moderate elements of the Taliban to share power in a democratic Afghan system.”
After a recent trip to Afghanistan, Michael Shank contends “Afghans are simply asking for an Afghan-centered approach, one that puts Afghans at the fore of every peace and security effort, one that builds sustainable Afghan state and local capacity, and one that sets new precedents for justice and accountability.” Such is the plan outlined by General McChrystal. However, Fred Kaplan pounces on McChrystal’s comment that “there is much in Afghanistan that I do not understand” and argues for the necessity of understanding the local society and culture for COIN to be effective. Additionally,which Andrew McCarhty at NRO critiques, “General McChrystal would employ COIN tactics in the course of a broader nation-building scheme. It is the nation-building to which I object. It is premature: Nation-building, if we should do it at all, should follow the enemy’s defeat.” He goes on to defend the original Bush Doctrine formulation “before it was modified by the ‘forward march of freedom’ rhetoric that has nothing to do with American national security.”
Patrick Barry also questions whether the U.S. is nation-building or not, focusing on McChrystal’s warning against “thinking of local militias as a better security off-ramp than the Afghan army.” He also wonders why Pakistan is not received sufficient attentiongiven that, per McChrystal’s testimony, our goal in Afghanistan is to primarily fight Al Qaeda. Laura Rozen explores how the Obama administration has both de-emphasized the faltering leadership of President Asif Ali Zardari while also offering a mixture of sticks and carrots to the Pakistani military to ramp up efforts against Islamist militants and especially the Afghan Taliban.
In another post, Rozen reports that a recent memo from retired General Barry McCaffrey suggests “the international civilian agency surgewill essentially not happen […] Afghanistan over the next 2-3 years will be simply too dangerous for most civil agencies.” Rozen contends such analysis “bolsters chatter that the U.S. military leadership may not be ready to put aside tensions with its civilian counterparts,” as fleshed out by this recent New York Times article on the relationship between General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry. Nonetheless, Jen DiMascio of Politico reports that the pair “sought to present a unified front” yesterday on the Hill.
Posted in Afghanistan, Committee Meetings, Congress, Democracy Promotion, Military, Pakistan, Taliban, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Afghanistan: More on the New Strategy
December 7th, 2009 by Jason
On the Sunday talk shows, the administration continued to clarify the new Afghan strategy with analysts weighing in from all sides. Secretary Gates affirmed the proposed July 2011 withdrawal date is “firm,” but the rate will be determined by conditions on the ground. General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry will testify before Congress this week to further elaborate on President Obama’s new Afghan strategy. Meanwhile, The New York Times provides interesting insight into the strategy review process that eventually led to President Obama’s decision to deploy 30,000 additional troops.
Fred Hiatt in the Washington Post explains the similarities between the Iraq and Afghan surges, contending that predictions of inevitable defeat can still yet be proven wrong. Also citing the surge in Iraq, Sean McLain at The National writes that it will “be a greater challenge in Afghanistan” to capitalize on any military success with political progress. But for any chance of success, Thomas Friedman contends Hamid Karzai must step up to the plate. Friedman elaborates: ”Without minimally decent government, Afghans will not take ownership. If they don’t take ownership, they won’t fight for it. And if they won’t fight for it on their own, whatever progress we make will not be self-sustaining.”
As Eliot Cohen explains, the theory of COIN calls for building a decent government through “competition for effective rule and legitimacy - local political outcomes that are enabled by, yet distressingly independent of, military success […] the key to success is building up your host’s forces and capacity for governance, not your own.” However, Cohen observes that this is easier said than done. Therefore, Doug Stanton outlines a more nuanced approach than a simple COIN strategy that seeks to win over Afghanistan “one village at a time.”
In an article generally supportive of the new Afghan strategy, Frederick Kagan and William Kristol contend that some NATO countries misconceived the mission as “supporting the Afghan government without addressing its endemic corruption and abuse of power.” However, Blake Hounshell expresses concern that “the deadline for initiating withdrawal may actually have the perverse effect of increasing corruption as “Karzai’s cronies want to maximize the amount of goodies they can stuff in their politics” before time runs out.
Tony Karon at Time outlines five questionable assumptions of the new Afghan strategy. Among them, Karon questions whether Karzai can be an effective partner, explaining “Karzai’s government is widely seen as corrupt, ineffective and a tool in the hands of a foreign invader, and Afghans are gloomy about the prospects for reforming it.” As such, John Metzler at the China Post suggests the U.S. may be willing to work around Karzai’s corruption and focus efforts on sub-national leaders. He also argues the surge is ultimately aimed to convince some Taliban to leave the insurgency and negotiate. In fact, Juan Cole reports that President Karzai has once again called for the U.S. to condone talks with the Taliban leadership. A former Taliban minister has recently suggested that if an agreement can be forged with Kabul, the Taliban would abandon its alliance with Al Qaeda. Cole also has posted a summary of Pakistani reactions to the new Afghan strategy, translated by the USG Open Source Center.
According to Claude Salhani in The Washington Times, President Obama should have spoken about the need for greater investment in education, more covert operations, and a greater role for the Afghan tribes in his West Point speech. Meanwhile, Jim Hoagland contends President Obama likely avoided the subject of the civilian surge during the speech “because there is not yet agreement among the president’s advisers or NATO members on how the present ineffective flow of financial aid and technical support from abroad for President Hamid Karzai’s government should be reorganized.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Iraq, Military, Multilateralism, Reform, Taliban, Terrorism, US foreign policy, US politics, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Afghanistan: NATO Promises 7,000 Troops
December 4th, 2009 by Jason
As General McChrystal assured the Afghan cabinet the U.S. was not abandoning its mission, Secretary Clinton, in an op ed for The Telegraph, called on all nations to help with the mission in Afghanistan. Ultimately, she asserts: ”we recognise that only the Afghan people can decide what kind of national they want to build for themselves. And only the Pakistani people can ensure their country’s democratic future.”
Heeding the call, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark announced that a combination of 25 countries will provide approximately 7,000 more troops to the Afghan effort. In addition, U.S. Navy Adm. James Savridis, head of NATO and U.S. commander in Europe, told the Associated Press that he believes several thousand more non-U.S. troops may be deployed on top of the 7,000 announced by Rasmussen. Meanwhile, Italy also announced it will commit 1,000 new troops to the Afghan mission, and President Dmitry Medvedev also declared Russia’s support, explaining “we are obliged to help in Afghanistan.”
In remarks after the NATO announcement, Secretary Clinton praised the contributions of America’s allies, but also insisted that the U.S. must “provide a sense of urgency to the Afghans to do themselves what we know they’re capable of doing.” During her testimony on the Hill, in response to a question by Senator Ben Cardin (D-Md.) about what happens when the Afghan regime fails to improve, Secretary Clinton asserted, “we aren’t aiming at some zero-corruption standard, we just want a more responsive government.” Meanwhile, in his own op-ed for The Washington Post, General Rasmussen explains NATO’s strategy in Afghanistan, insisting “good governance is the best way to close off the oxygen supply to the Taliban.”
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Posted in Afghanistan, Congress, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Iraq, Military, Reform, Taliban, Terrorism, US foreign policy, US politics, al-Qaeda | Comment »
