Pakistan Without Musharraf
August 20th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in the L.A. Times lauds Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to resign earlier this week, but questions whether Asif Ali Zardari or Nawaz Sharif have “the expertise to cope with the country’s most daunting challenges — runaway inflation, religious extremism and ongoing conflict with India.” Despite this, the editorial remains hopeful. “Democracy can and will work even in parts of the world where so far it has seemed a dismal failure. All it takes is a little patience; Pakistan’s people and army just need to provide it.”
On the other hand, Syed Saleem Shahzad at Asia Times Online reports on yesterday’s Taliban attacks in Afghanistan, claiming that the Taliban seized upon Musharraf’s resignation and the power vacuum it created in the country. Pakistan “is clearly a government of disunity, destined to endless feuding and paralysis - a situation militants will exploit to the full, as they have since Musharraf shed his uniform last November.”
Likewise, William B. Milam in the Daily Times (Pakistan) compares Musharraf’s resignation to the ending of Casalanca, where the key players made sacrifices to a “greater good.” Miliam, however, “doubts it will be sufficient for Pakistan to overcome its existential crisis.”
Meanwhile, Peter Wonacott and Zahid Hussain in the Wall Street Journal reports that Pakistan’s civilian government hit a snag after the PPP asked to review the issue of restoring the judges dismissed by Musharraf. Xenia Dormandy, a South Asia scholar at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government predicts that the infighting will worsen. “I’d be stunned if the current coalition lasted to next fall.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Reform, Terrorism | Comment »
The Terrorism Index
August 19th, 2008 by Sarah
The Center for American Progress has released “The Terrorism Index,” surveying the foreign policy experts for their assessment of how the U.S. is fighting the War on Terror. Over 100 experts give their insight into U.S. policy toward Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, as well as the 2008 Presidential candidates.
To read the full report, click here.
Posted in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Military, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Musharraf’s Resignation
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Troy at Abu Muqawama discusses Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation and whether the civilian government will continue to fight extremism as Musharraf did. “Even if they decide to do so, can either the government or the Army provide the leadership necessary to do so?”
In regard to politics, Blake Hounshell at FP Passport warns that Musharraf’s resignation “could lead to ugly infighting between [Asif] Zardari and [Nawaz] Sharif.”
Likewise, Steve Clemons at The Washington Note suggests that “Musharraf’s rivals now need to be ‘for’ something rather than just against him. Hopefully, the competing parties will continue to collaborate on taking on huge challenges facing the nation — but their record is not good.”
An editorial in The Daily Times (Pakistan), however, is not optimistic. It argues that the call for Musharraf’s resignation is fueled by “revenge and not justice.”
Arif Rafiq at The Pakistan Policy Blog takes a close look at Musharraf’s potential replacements and the possible voting coalitions that may emerge. While “the PPP and PML-N don’t have to work together to choose a president….that would endanger the governing coalition….For its next president, Pakistan needs a symbol that will help unite it in a time of increasing fragmentation.”
Meanwhile, an editorial in the Daily Star suggests that Musharraf’s resignation “should be a wake-up call for Arab leaders that any semblance of eternal power anchored in foreign backing always turns out to be a chimera, when local, regional and global conditions change, as they always do.”
In regard to U.S. policy, Max Bergmann at Democracy Arsenal declares that “the resignation of Musharraf represents the total collapse of eight years of Bush administration policy.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Pakistan, Political Parties, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Can Free Trade Stop Terrorism?
August 15th, 2008 by Amanda
In an opinion piece at the Wall Street Journal, Edward Gresser and Marc Dunkelman declare free trade as an important means to fight terrorism. Their logic follows that if markets are opened in Muslim countries their economies will boom, which will then lead the “unemployed, embittered youth” to be less “susceptible to the sirens of Islamic fundamentalism” and terrorist the acts associated with it.
Although the authors recognize that corruption and political repression are factors in breeding of extremist attitudes, they posit that “few things could do more to combat terrorist recruitment than draining the pools of angry and unemployed youth that are spread across this region. “
Posted in Terrorism | Comment »
Lebanon, Syria to Establish Diplomatic Ties
August 14th, 2008 by Adam
Today’s editorial in the Daily Star sees the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria as a tremendous step forward for Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. The editorial optimistically proclaims, “The deal will not immediately erase all of the tensions that took decades to develop, but it will allow for the immediate opening of a new chapter of full and healthy relations between the two states.”
Also in the Daily Star, Michael Young looks at the implications of yesterday’s deadly bombing in Tripoli that killed 18 people. Young sees a Syrian hand in the violence, hoping it will push Lebanon’s army to confront the Sunni extremists in a bid to politically divide the Sunnis and weaken President Michel Sleiman’s parliamentary majority.
Grandmasta at Arabic Media Shack also has analysis on the bombing in Lebanon.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism, Syria, Terrorism | Comment »
Moving Forward in Pakistan
August 13th, 2008 by Sarah
Hassan Abbas at the Daily Star argues that the Pakistani army is unlikely to bail Pervez Musharraf out of the charges leveled against him and suggests that “it is time for Musharraf’s friends in the West to press him to serve his country one last time, by avoiding confrontation with his country’s democratic forces and calling it quits.”
An editorial in the Wall Street Journal warns that “the impeachment proceedings carry the whiff of personal vendetta rather than a good faith effort to fix Pakistan’s urgent problems” and expresses deep concern that unlike Musharraf, the coalition government fails to understand that “fighting religious extremism is as crucial to Pakistan’s sovereignty as it is to the free world’s.” Until it “demonstrates a better understanding of the dangers of militant Islam and shows a determination to fight it,” the country’s numerous problems will be left unresolved.
Posted in Military, Pakistan, Political Parties, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
The Bush Doctrine
August 12th, 2008 by Sarah
In a article at The American Interest Online, John Lewis Gaddis reviews the Bush Doctrine of “seeking and supporting the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.” To this end, Gaddis recommends “working with authoritarian regimes when there is more to fear than their authoritarianism when the trajectory is toward making democracy possible, even if it’s still a long way off. But it also requires resisting regimes—and terrorist movements—whose course lies in the opposite direction: toward making themselves the source of all fears, rather than the safeguard against them.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Challenges in the Fall and Beyond
August 6th, 2008 by Sarah
Today, the Brookings Institution hosted foreign policy experts Kenneth Pollack, Bruce Riedel and Jeremy Shapiro for a discussion on the state of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as U.S. efforts to partner with Pakistan in confronting al Qaeda. Kenneth Pollack is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Bruce Riedel is Director of Research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Jeremy Shapiro is a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and Director of Research at the Center on the United States and Europe. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution moderated the event.
Riedel called for the U.S. to “clearly stand behind the new democratically-elected government” in Pakistan, while Pollack recommended that the U.S. aggressively engage Iran in order to best serve our interests in the region.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Iran, Iraq, Legislation, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Don’t Call It A “War” on Terror!
August 5th, 2008 by Sarah
Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki at Rand Corporation have released their study of how terrorist groups have been dismantled over the past 40 years. According to the authors, 43% eventually joined the political process, while 40% fell apart after key members were arrested or killed by local police and intelligence agencies. In light of this, the authors call for U.S. strategy to move away from using military force as the backbone of the fight against al-Qaeda. Instead, they recommend that U.S. strategy emphasize policing and intelligence, and even suggest that officials “should end the use of the phrase ‘war on terrorism’ since there is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa’ida.”
For the full report, click here.
Posted in Military, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Pakistan Intelligence Linked to Indian Embassy Bombing
August 1st, 2008 by Sarah
U.S. intelligence officials have accused Pakistan’s military intelligence of providing “logistical support” to militants who bombed the Indian embassy in Afghanistan last month. Joby Warrick in the Washington Post argues that the finding “has dramatically heightened U.S. concerns about long-standing ties between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency and Taliban-allied groups that are battling U.S. forces in Afghanistan.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Status of Al-Qaeda
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
This week’s edition of The Economist focuses on the status of al-Qaeda worldwide.
The issue addresses the current debate over CIA Director Michael Hayden’s claim of a “near strategic defeat” of the terrorist organization, its growing strength in Pakistan, its ability to recruit and export its ideology, the contrast between home-grown terrorism in Europe and the U.S., the effects of maintaining Guantanamo Bay on fighting global terrorism, tactics explored by Saudi Arabia to tackle terrorism, and al-Qaeda’s self-destructive tendencies.
Posted in EU, Military, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
2008: Separating Terrorism From Islamic Extremism
July 17th, 2008 by Matt
Over at TAPPED, Ezra Klein homed in on a particular passage on Islamic extremism in Barack Obama’s interview with Fareed Zakaria that Klein says shows a distinct difference between McCain and Obama on this issue:
“One of the clear distinctions between the Left’s approach to terrorism and the Right’s approach to terrorism is that the Left wants to limit the scope of the conflict, while the Right wants to expand it. So though it was only al Qaeda who attacked us on 9/11, Romney and Giuliani and McCain and plenty of their colleagues want to zoom out from al Qaeda to terrorism, and from terrorism to Islamic extremism. Rather than this being an effort to hunt down al Qaeda, it becomes a war to hunt down al Qaeda, destroy Hezbollah, eradicate Hamas, overthrow Saddam Hussein, change the regime in Tehran, crush the Muslim Brotherhood, and confront Syria, and whatever else Bill Kristol thought of while eating his Cheerios that week.”
Posted in Election 08, Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, Terrorism, US foreign policy, US politics, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Afghanistan Suspends Meetings With Pakistan
July 16th, 2008 by Sarah
Barnett R. Rubin at Informed Comment posts a statement by the Afghanistan Cabinet Meeting castigating Pakistan Intelligence for becoming “the largest center for breeding and exporting terrorism and extremism to the world and particularly to Afghanistan.” Although it distinguished Pakistan Intelligence and from the country’s elected government, the statement held that Afghanistan will “suspend its bilateral and multilateral meetings and sessions [with Pakistan] until a positive spirit of dialogue and understanding for mutual trust is restored.”
In response, an editorial in The International News (Pakistan) criticizes the Afghanistan Cabinet Meeting for amplifying tension between the two countries, as it “will only make the effort to combat terrorism more arduous” and add to speculation that the U.S. is considering raids into Pakistan.
Posted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Terrorism | Comment »
Border Trouble in Pakistan
July 15th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in the Daily Times (Pakistan) highlights consensus in Pakistan against an “American military intervention in Pakistan to sort out America’s Al Qaeda problem.” The editorial warns that such an intervention will irreparably damage Pakistan’s economy. “What is needed is not the back-breaking preparation for a defensive war but peace diplomacy.”
Posted in Arab media, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Heartland and the Pakistan border
July 9th, 2008 by Sarah
The latest issue of the online journal, Heartland: Eurasian Review of Geopolitics, addresses “The Pakistani Boomerang,” outlining the situation on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and features articles by Barry Rubin, John C. Hulsman, and Ariel Cohen, among many others.
John C. Hulsman argues that the latest National Intelligence Estimate’s findings signals “the beginning of the end of one of the most contentious presidencies in American history.” But he warns that Iran’s nuclear ambitions will still be a major issue facing the next U.S. President.
Ariel Cohen outlines the winners and losers of the NIE report (Winners: China, Russia, Ahmedinejad. Losers: Bush, Cheney, U.S. credibility, Neo-Cons, Israel, and the Iranian people) and outlines the possible responses in U.S. foreign policy.
Meanwhile Barry Rubin examines how modern Arab regimes neutralize democratic forces through repression and cooption, by revitalizing Arab nationalist ideology and by painting reformers as the true enemy of the people.
Posted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb
July 2nd, 2008 by Adam
GrandMasta Splash at Arabic Media Shack analyzes the recent New York Times article examining Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Splash says the Times article exaggerates the Al-Qaeda links as their tactics, such as killing foreigners, were part of the GIA’s repertoire during its conflict with the Algerian government in the 1990s. Furthermore, according to Splash, the group’s linking with Al-Qaeda is a sign of weakness as they were nearly crushed by the Algerian government and had to align with Bin Laden as a last ditch effort to save their organization from complete marginalization.
Posted in Algeria, North Africa, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
U.S. Support for Autocracies Promotes Radical Islam?
June 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Chris Zambelis at the Jamestown Foundation examines some of the factors contributing to the radicalization of Islam. Zambelis points to the use of torture by autocracies, often seen as oppressive and illegitimate, in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia as formative in the psychology of radicalization. U.S. support for these governments “serve as a battle cry for militants to take up arms against the United States.”
In related news, Daniel Kimmage in the New York Times sees the internet as a “very practical means of countering al-Qaeda,” but laments that “the authoritarian governments of the Middle East are doing their best to hobble Web 2.0. By blocking the Internet, they are leaving the field open to Al Qaeda and its recruiters.”
Posted in Egypt, Freedom, Human Rights, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Reinforcing Extremists
June 19th, 2008 by Sarah
In light of the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times argues that hard-liners in Israel, Palestine and America all reinforce each other. “So while Israelis denounce Hezbollah and Hamas, they helped create them. And while Palestinians denounce the separation barrier, their suicide bombings built it.”
Posted in Hamas, Israel, Terrorism | Comment »
When Jihadis Come Marching Home
June 11th, 2008 by Adam
At Democracy Journal, Andrew Exum has a very interesting article about the effects of returning foreign fighters from Iraq. The return of these fighters may have direct security and strategic implications on a regional and global scale. This phenomenon may also hinder reform in the Middle East since, “…success in Iraq was supposed to usher in an age of democratization throughout the Middle East, the failure in Iraq may have instead led to the largest crack-down on dissidents and political speech the region has seen in decades.”
Posted in Reform, Terrorism | Comment »
More or Less Defeated
June 10th, 2008 by Sarah
A debate at PostGlobal addresses the claim of CIA Director Michael Hayden that al-Qaeda has “more or less” been defeated in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dr. Ali Ettefagh skeptically questions how convenient it is “that the apparent rise and defeat of al-Qaeda, a group with no pre-invasion presence in Iraq, is so timely with the American election season!”
Anwer Sher questions “when wars are fought with an adversary who is largely invisible, how can one make the assertion that the war is over?” and asks whether the more important question, whether Hamid Karzai can restore order without the support of foreign troops. Miklos Vamos puts it more bluntly. “I do not think al-Qaeda is defeated in any way.”
Rami Khouri suggests that is just fantasy. “Al-Qaeda is not a formal movement or force that can be “defeated” in a classical military sense. The reality is probably that American policies around the world, have spurred as many new terrorists as they may have captured or deterred other ones.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Iraq, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
