The Sons of Iraq and Sectarian Reconciliation
August 26th, 2008 by Adam
In the Los Angeles Times, Shawn Brimley and Colin Kahl warn that the recent crackdown on the Sons of Iraq by Prime Minister Maliki threatens to reverse recent security gains and inflame sectarian tensions. They say that plans to integrate them into the Iraqi security forces have been delibarately slowed and the Iraqi army has arrested or harassed members of the Sons of Iraq. The U.S. can pressure Maliki to reconcile by using its remaining leverage to, “…make continued security assistance conditional on Maliki carrying through on his commitments to integrate and gainfully employ the Sons of Iraq.”
Similarly, Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark provides a run-down of recent analysis on the subject and provides some interesting commentary of his own.
Posted in Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon, Syria to Establish Diplomatic Ties
August 14th, 2008 by Adam
Today’s editorial in the Daily Star sees the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria as a tremendous step forward for Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. The editorial optimistically proclaims, “The deal will not immediately erase all of the tensions that took decades to develop, but it will allow for the immediate opening of a new chapter of full and healthy relations between the two states.”
Also in the Daily Star, Michael Young looks at the implications of yesterday’s deadly bombing in Tripoli that killed 18 people. Young sees a Syrian hand in the violence, hoping it will push Lebanon’s army to confront the Sunni extremists in a bid to politically divide the Sunnis and weaken President Michel Sleiman’s parliamentary majority.
Grandmasta at Arabic Media Shack also has analysis on the bombing in Lebanon.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism, Syria, Terrorism | Comment »
Elections Limbo
August 8th, 2008 by Amanda
Iraqi provincial elections once scheduled for October have now been postponed without a definitive date, which according to Eric Martin at American Footprints, “represent[s] the larger, as yet unreconciled, political conflicts” within Iraqi leadership.
The Washington Post states that “the elections are especially vital to Iraq’s disenfranchised Sunnis, who boycotted the last provincial elections in 2005.” Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark agrees, saying that their “anger …is already palpable”.
The consensus appears to be that security may destabilize if Sunnis who led the Awakening movement feel marginalized from power. As Dr. Irak at Abu Muqawama puts it, “provincial elections are needed to allow emerging Sunni elites … a chance to gain a seat at the table and make a legitimate claim to political power and the patronage resources that flow from that power.”
The sentiment is echoed by Shawn Brimly at Democracy Arsenal,who writes that “the so-called Awakening Councils along with the Sons of Iraq, helped bring the some semblance of security to their communities, and the elections were seen as an opportunity for them to transition from local political and security organizations into the mainstream of Iraqi political leadership. With these elections now in doubt, it is unclear how these groups will react to the IIP and the Maliki government.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
A Compromise on Iraq Worthy of Obama and McCain
August 5th, 2008 by Sarah
Stephen Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon, and Kenneth Pollack put forth a plan for Iraq in Foreign Affairs that can “partly square Obama’s goal of redeploying large numbers of U.S. forces sooner rather than later, with McCain’s goal of ensuring stability in Iraq.” The authors argue that threatening withdrawal is likely to only derail what progress has been made politically. Instead, they recommend that “reconciliation can be done slowly, via small steps, then each stage of compromise is likely to be tolerable, with the risk of one holdout party exploiting the others kept to a manageable level” so that the U.S. “should be able to cut its presence in Iraq substantially — perhaps by half — over the course of 2010 and 2011.”
Posted in Election 08, Iraq, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Limited Political Progress in Iraq
August 4th, 2008 by Sarah
An emergency session of the Iraqi Parliament planned for this past weekend in order to settle disagreements over the provincial election law was cancelled. Juan Cole summarizes the situation simply. “No provincial election law means, probably, no provincial elections this year. No oil law. No significant Shiite-Sunni reconciliation. Politics gridlocked in Iraq.”
Meanwhile, Kurdish members have called for the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to be annexed to the nearby Kurdistan Regional Authority, a move that was vehemently rejected by the city’s Turkmen and Arabs.
An editorial, in the International Herald Tribune strongly opposes the annexation of Kirkuk, and blames the U.S. and Kurds for not seriously looking for political compromise. “Compromises on Kirkuk are theoretically possible, but only the UN seems to be seriously trying to find one.”
A New York Times editorial agrees.
And Helena Cobban in The Christian Science Monitor argues that only the U.N. can mobilize the global resources, the non-military tools, and expertise necessary to sort out the political divisions in Iraq. However, for the U.N. to be successful, Cobban argues that U.S. must form a “strong, new compact” with the U.N. after “Washington’s deep estrangement” in recent years.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Sectarianism, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
What of the Sons of Iraq?
July 30th, 2008 by Adam
In the Christian Science Monitor, Tom Peter writes an important article about the difficulties of transitioning the Sons of Iraq from an auxiliary police force into other forms of employment. Only 17,000 of 103,000 (roughly 15%) have been integrated into the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However, the high rates of integration into the ISF the U.S. envisioned has been stalled by the Iraqi government that is reluctant to integrate a Sunni armed force into an army that is predominately Kurdish and Shiite. Peter asserts that officials are worried that if the Sons of Iraq are not transferred into employment after the force is dissolved that security could suffer.
Posted in Iraq, Military, Sectarianism | Comment »
How Successful Was The Surge?
July 29th, 2008 by Sarah
In a debate hosted by American Prospect, Stephen Biddle, Shawn Brimley, Juan Cole, Matthew Duss, Colin Kahl, Lawrence Korb, John Nagl, Michael O’Hanlon, Marina Ottaway, and Thomas E. Ricks all weigh in on the Surge in Iraq and address the factors that have contributed to Iraq’s recent stability.
Stephen Biddle argues that despite the Surge’s failure to bring about its promised political compromise, a completely different possibility arose. The “Anbar Model” or “bottom up” approach was “one that was neither planned nor anticipated nor intended when the surge was designed, but which has nevertheless become central to the prospects for stability in Iraq.”
Shawn Brimley argues that the Surge is only one of many factors that contributed to the relative stability in Iraq. “The decline in violence in 2007 had much more to do with a change in U.S. strategy than simply the additional troops. A change in strategy, plus the Sunni Awakening, the decision of Sadr to stand down his militia, and the use of concrete barriers in Baghdad to separate Sunni and Shia were all extremely important factors that, along with the additional troops, combined to help lower the violence.”
Juan Cole looks more to the various groups that received U.S. funding to fight jihadis, the success of the Badr Corps paramilitary of Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq over Sadr’s movement, and the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis, which left few mixed neighborhoods.
Matthew Duss warns that the “Anbar strategy,” which resulted in deals between Sunni tribal militias and the U.S., instead of redirecting political authority to a centralized government, could breed larger problems later. “It’s true that security is a prerequisite for state-building, but if that security only comes at the expense of the legitimacy of the state we’re supposedly trying to build, then we have an entirely new problem on our hands.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Iraq, Military, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Ethnic Rivalries Plague Iraq
July 28th, 2008 by Sarah
Ned Parker in the L.A. Times warns that Iraq’s “political horizon is clouded” by dangerous ethnic rivalries “with no resolution in sight.”
Robert Dreyfuss at The Nation agrees, claiming that Iraq is “poised to explode” for various reasons. “The first is the brewing crisis over Kirkuk, where the pushy Kurds are demanding control and Iraq’s Arabs are resisting. The second is in the west, and Anbar, where the US-backed Sons of Iraq sahwa (”Awakening”) movement is moving to take power against the Iraqi Islamic Party, a fundamentalist Sunni bloc. And third is the restive Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr, which is chafing at gains made by its Iranian-backed rival, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.”
Likewise, Juan Cole at Informed Comment reports that this weekend attempts to come to a compromise on Iraq’s provincial elections have failed.
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Kurdish Walk-Out
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark suggests that the recent walkout of Kurdish Iraqi Parliament members at the vote on the country’s provincial election law spells trouble for political reconciliation. “At a minimum, it seems likely that President Jalal Talabani will not vote to ratify the law, which means it will not come into effect. Even worse would be if the decision drives Kurds to now demand the implementation of Article 140 [the deeply contentious referendum on the status of Kirkuk]… And then, of course, there’s the prospect of a mass Kurdish boycott of the provincial elections leading to a round of disenfranchisement reminiscent of the Sunni community in 2005.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Sectarianism | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Egypt’s Coptic Christians: The Experience of the Middle East’s Largest Christian Community During a Time of Rising Islamization”
July 18th, 2008 by Adam
The Center for Religious Freedom at the Hudson Institute held a discussion with Bishop Thomas of the El-Qussia and Mair Diocese in Upper Egypt. The discussion dealt with experiences of Egypt’s Coptic Christian community. The Bishop talked about important issues facing the Copts, including religious freedom, the growth of Islamic identity, and tensions between the Muslim and Coptic communities.
For POMED’s full notes on this discussion, click here.
Posted in Egypt, Event Notes, Sectarianism | Comment »
Mubarak and the Mosque
July 14th, 2008 by Adam
Rannie Amiri at Counterpunch reports on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s attempts to subvert Sunni scholars to do his sectarian bidding. According to Amiri, Mubarak’s outreach to these religious authorities is based on his fear of the tens of thousands Iraqi Shiite refugees that have come to Egypt since 2003. Mubarak wants to use the Sunni scholars to provide a counterbalance against the influence of the Shiites, who are seen as a fifth column and unwilling to submit to state authority.
On a related note, the Daily Star reports that 16 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were arrested Sunday during a by-election in Northern Egypt.
Posted in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Islam, Sectarianism | Comment »
Sectarian Soccer
July 8th, 2008 by Adam
At Counterpunch, Karim Makdisi has an interesting article examining the relationship between Lebanon’s perpetual sectarian strife and soccer. Makdisi asserts that Lebanon’s sectarian tensions have permeated the nation’s soccer, and instead of it being an avenue for national unity, it has become merely another sectarian battleground. He then concludes by castigating Lebanon’s leaders for using soccer to, “…further division amongst the country’s soccering communities that would preserve their power and their stranglehold in formulating, and sustaining, Lebanon’s fragile sectarian identity.”
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
Coptic Christians’ Increasing Isolation
July 7th, 2008 by Adam
Ellen Knickmeyer has an interesting article in the Washington Post detailing how recent clashes between Coptic Christians and Muslims in Egypt have pushed many Copts towards a self-imposed segregation from their fellow countrymen. Recent sectarian violence and increasing fundamentalist forms of Islam have eroded decades of religious tolerance between the two communities. The increasing sectarianism brings fears that sectarian identities could replace the Egyptian national identity and further exacerbate tensions.
GrandMasta Splash has more at Arab Media Shack.
Posted in Egypt, Sectarianism | Comment »
Sshhh…. Don’t Tell Anybody
June 27th, 2008 by Amanda
The Daily News Egypt reports that an American tourist was “marring Egypt’s image” by catching both its pervasive poverty, and sectarian fighting between Muslims and Copts on film. A hotel employee reported the woman to the Tourist Police where the State Security authorities have made attempts to find the tourist. The documentary also captured images of police intervention in the sectarian clashes.
Hossam el-Hamalawy at a3rabawy refers to another example of civil rights quashing by the Egyptian government as poet and journalist Farouk Goweida is continually denied membership to the Supreme Council for Culture in retaliation for his public criticisms of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif in Al-Ahram newspaper.
The crack down on journalists by the Moroccan government is highlighted in the Daily Star by James Badcock.
Posted in Egypt, Journalism, Morocco, Sectarianism | Comment »
Troubled Times In and Out of Iraq
June 26th, 2008 by Adam
In an op-ed in the New York Times, Nicholas Kristof shines a light on the plight of Iraqi refugees in neighboring countries. Kristof criticizes the U.S. and international community for neglecting what many call the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. If not dealt with, the refugee crisis could, “…drag on — and especially if we allow young refugees to miss an education so that they will never have a future — then we are sentencing ourselves to endure their wrath for decades to come.”
The New York Times reports that the situation for those in Iraq is also perilous, especially Christians. Even though security has improved to the point where local churches have stopped paying protection money to insurgents, their still remains a high degree of insecurity. Christians in Northern Iraq fear that the Kurds will not adequately protect them in order to tilt the demographic balance in the Kurds’ favor.
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Sectarianism | Comment »
Political Drama in Lebanon
June 26th, 2008 by Adam
The recent impasse in forming a new government in Lebanon threatens last month’s political compromise, the Christian Science Monitor reports. The disagreements between politicians regarding cabinet portfolios may exacerbate tensions, especially between Shiites and Sunnis.
Meanwhile, Michael Young of the Daily Star urges the March 14 coalition to seriously tackle economic and social problems and develop a serious strategy to lessen sectarian differences. Unless these steps are taken to bolster the state, the coalition will have a hard time maintaining the support of a Sunni population that is feeling increasingly insecure and a Christian population that feels the coalition ignores their concerns.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraqi Self-Liberation
June 25th, 2008 by Adam
In an article in the New York Times, Thomas Friedman argues that the recent lull in violence is due to a narrative of self-liberation that has developed in light of the Tribal Awakening and the liberation of Basra, Sadr City, and Amara from Iranian-backed militias and the Mahdi Army. This narrative has given the Sunnis the confidence to join the government and contest the next parliamentary elections, while giving the central government and Iraqi Army more legitimacy. However, Friedman warns that these dueling tracks of liberation, “…still don’t amount to a single national unity movement. Civil war could still be in Iraq’s future.”
Posted in Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
The Legally Bizarre
June 20th, 2008 by Amanda
A Newsweek article covers the AKP’s constitutional amendments, the constitutional court’s logic, and the ramifications for Turkish democracy. It defends the constitutionality of the AKP-majority National Assembly’s actions and deems “the court’s recent action is legally bizarre and arguably unconstitutional itself.”
Posted in Judiciary, Sectarianism, Turkey | Comment »
Confessions Yield No Concessions
May 20th, 2008 by Pasha
Mohammed Bazzi argues in the Christian Science Monitor that the “antiquated power-sharing system” in Lebanon is the root of the current strife. He sees the Lebanese confessional system as stunting the growth of political institutions and that it “leads to a weak state” by encouraging “horse-trading and alliances with powerful patrons.” Bazzi also views the system as particularly susceptible to outside influence, another major cause of strife in Lebanon. Unfortunately, he concludes that the needed political players, both Lebanese and foreign, are too invested in the current system to replace it with a new, more egalitarian system. For this reason, the fundamental reforms Bazzi sees as necessary seems out of reach.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism, Uncategorized | Comment »
That’s the Spirit!
May 16th, 2008 by Pasha
Philip Carl Salzman argues in Middle East Strategy at Harvard that the fragmentation seen in Lebanon is a manifestation of the Arab “tribal spirit.”
The Conservative Voice’s Alan Caruba dismisses President Bush’s tour of the Middle East, arguing that peace is “not going to happen” because of a root cultural cause which renders Arabs “hard-wired for conflict.”
The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies does not argue that peace is not going to happen, but does note that this cultural root cause, which they call “tribalism,” is a significant impediment to change.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
