Moving Beyond Rhetoric:
How Should President Obama Change
U.S. Policy in the Middle East?

Wednesday, January 30, 2013
10:00 am – 11:30 am
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Ave. NW,
Washington, DC 20009

Four years ago, President Barack Obama took office amid promises of a fundamentally different approach to U.S. policy in the Middle East. In frequent public remarks, including his first inaugural address and his major June 2009 speech in Cairo, President Obama promised to “seek a new way forward” in U.S. relations with the region, based on “mutual interest and mutual respect.” Such rhetoric was initially received with enthusiasm across a region eager for real change, but soon became viewed as empty words not backed up by substantive policy shifts. Even following the historic changes that have swept the region since early 2011, the U.S. administration has responded with similarly promising rhetoric, but with few tangible changes to policy.

As President Obama embarks on his second term, it’s important to examine what concrete changes to U.S. policy are needed to fulfill the promises of President Obama’s rhetoric. How can the U.S. balance existing relationships with current governments and with those of nascent political actors? How should the U.S. view and engage with rising Islamist powers in the region? How best can the U.S. use its leverage with allies, and how should the role of U.S. aid to the region change? And what should the balance of public and private diplomacy look like?

To answer these questions, POMED has gathered ideas from fourteen respected policy analysts and experts from the U.S. and from across the Middle East and North Africa and will release them in a new publication. Copies of this new report will be available at the event.

Join us for a discussion with:

Esraa Abdel Fattah
Youth Committee Member, Al-Dostour Party of Egypt

Larry Diamond
Director, Center on Democracy, Development,
and Rule of Law, Stanford University

Brian Katulis
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress

Moderator: Stephen McInerney
Executive Director, POMED

Click here to RSVP.

We’ll also be live-tweeting from the event (@POMEDWire), so follow the conversation at #POMED. If you’d like us to ask one of your questions, we’ll try to include a few from our virtual audience.

Please contact Alex Russell at alex.russell@pomed.org with any questions, or call +1.202.828.9660, ext 25.

Monday, January 14, 2013
5:30 pm – 7:00 pm
Johns Hopkins University,
Bernstein Offit Building, Room 500
1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW

On January 14, 2011, Ben Ali was forced to leave Tunisia by a popular uprising commonly known as the Jasmine Revolution. This historic event triggered mass protests that would sweep the Arab world, forcing other longstanding authoritarian leaders from power and potentially transforming the region. Since that time, Tunisia has witnessed the country’s first free and fair elections, the emergence of new political parties and coalitions, and the many difficulties of maintaining stability amid an uncertain political transition. On the second anniversary of this historic moment, it is important to assess Tunisia’s progress in its difficult transition to democracy and examine the prospects and challenges that lie ahead.

Please join us for a discussion with:

Leila Chennoufi, InterAmerican Development Bank, Eamonn Gearon, African Studies Program, JHU-SAIS, Samia Msadek, World Bank, and Moderator Mohamed Malouche, Tunisian American Young Professionals (TAYP)

Opening remarks by Daniele Moro, Center for Transatlantic Relations, JHU-SAIS

To RSVP for the event, please click here. Please contact Alex Russell at alex.russell@pomed.org with any further questions.

Friday, November 30, 2012
10:00 am – 11:30 am
Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 106

On November 23, 2011, the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) released a 500-page report providing 26 recommendations for reform in the Kingdom. One year later, the Government of Bahrain has claimed to have implemented most of these recommendations, but many independent observers disagree, regarding the government’s efforts as insufficient and disappointing. Moreover, the political situation in Bahrain has continued to deteriorate, with frequent eruptions of violence including a series of bombings in Manama in early November. The government has also taken a number of repressive steps in recent weeks, including the banning of all public demonstrations and the stripping of 31 opposition figures of their Bahraini citizenship.

On the first anniversary of the BICI report’s release, where do reform efforts stand? And what does the current political crisis in Bahrain mean for U.S. interests and policy in the Middle East more broadly? During President Obama’s second term in office, in what ways should his administration adapt its policy approach to Bahrain? What role do military, economic, and diplomatic relations between the two countries play in the current crisis? What specific steps, if any, can the U.S. take to have a more meaningful, constructive influence in Bahrain?

Please join us for a discussion with:

The Honorable James McGovern
United States Congressman (D-MA)

Tom Malinowski
Washington Director, Human Rights Watch

Stephen McInerney
Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy

Frederic Wehrey
Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Moderator: Carl Gershman
President, National Endowment for Democracy

Click here to RSVP for the event.

We’ll also be live-tweeting from the event (@POMEDWire), so follow the conversation at #POMEDbah. If you’d like us to ask one of your questions, we’ll try to include a few from our virtual audience.

Please contact Alex Russell at alex.russell@pomed.org with any questions, or call (202) 828-9660, ext 25.

Click here to RSVP and continue reading for the full event description.

With a first draft of its constitution written, the status of the Constituent Assembly in limbo, and parliamentary elections looming on the horizon, Egypt is facing several crucial tests in its transition at once. By their very nature, the outcomes of these obstacles will have long-lasting effects on Egypt’s political environment and will set Egypt’s path into the future. Given the importance of these events, it becomes necessary to assess where Egypt is headed and how best to support Egyptian aspirations for democracy. Join us in discussing the following questions, among others:

• Now that the Constituent Assembly has released a draft constitution, how have various sectors of Egyptian society reacted, and what changes might be made before the final form is completed?

• What role have civil society organizations and media outlets played in Egypt’s transition, especially during the constitution-drafting period, and what obstacles do they still face in accomplishing their work?

• What can we expect in Egypt’s upcoming parliamentary elections? How will recently formed parties fair against the Freedom & Justice Party, which dominated the previous parliamentary elections, and which issues facing Egypt will play the biggest role in determining the elections’ outcome?

• How can the U.S. best support the democratic aspirations of Egyptians as their nation is faced with these difficult obstacles in its transition? How have past U.S. reactions to political obstacles in Egypt affected Egyptian opinion and confidence in the U.S.?

Please join us for a discussion with:

Greg Aftandilian
Senior Fellow for the Middle East, Center for National Policy

Wael Abdel Fattah
Daily Columnist, Al Tahrir Newspaper
Co-founder, Al-Akhbar Daily Newspaper

Gameela Ismail
Steering Committee Member, Al-Dostour Party
Candidate, 2010 & 2011 Egyptian Parliamentary Elections

Moderator: Stephen McInerney
Executive Director,
Project on Middle East Democracy

Women played an integral role in the Arab uprisings, and the continued empowerment of women will be critical to the emergence of democracy in the region. Gender rights and women’s equality are among the most consequential and controversial issues facing newly elected governments across the Arab world. Some fear that the election of Islamist parties will turn back the clock on women’s rights, but others see more open politics as a new opportunity for efforts to achieve equality in the Arab world. How has the Arab awakening affected the women of the region? How are activists and politicians seeking progress for women in this uncertain and evolving landscape?

On October 25, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, Vital Voices Global Partnership, and the Project on Middle East Democracy will host activists from Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan who are advocating for women’s rights in a variety of ways: combating child marriage, working to repeal gender-discriminatory laws, promoting gender equality in the new Egyptian constitution, and protecting the rights of women workers. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.

Please join us for a discussion with:

Lina Ahmed
Lebanese League for Women in Business
Lebanon

Marianne Ibrahim
Al Gisr Center for Development
Egypt

Randa Naffa
SADAQA
Jordan

Souad Slaoui
Isis Center
Morocco

Moderator: Tamara Cofman Wittes
Director and Senior Fellow,
Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings

Click here to RSVP for the event.

We’ll also be live-tweeting the event (@POMEDWire), so follow the conversation at #POMED. If you’d like us to ask one of your questions, we’ll try to include a few from our virtual audience.

Please contact Alex Russell at alex.russell@pomed.org with any questions, or call (202) 828-9660, ext 25.

Clinton briefly addressed the state of political reform and security in the four main Maghrebi countries. In Libya, Clinton said that she was “inspired” by the overwhelming Libyan condemnation of the September 11 Benghazi attacks, as evidenced by the mass protests against violence and the militias in the  days after. Clinton lauded the newly inclusive Tunisian government, led by a moderate Islamist bloc that is working with civil society in drafting a modern constitution. Clinton urged Moroccan leaders to continue to follow through on reform promises, but said that she was encouraged that leaders there “have sought to engage all Moroccans and have focused on creating jobs and fighting corruption.” Although there has been “some progress” in Algeria, Clinton said that “Algeria has a lot of work to do to uphold universal rights and create space for civil society.”

The U.S. will continue to assist the political transition process in the Maghreb by focusing on security, economic development, strengthening democratic institutions, and advancing political reforms. One billion dollars in targeted assistance and “a new $770 million fund that would be tied to concrete benchmarks for political and economic reforms” were among several initiatives that Clinton said the administration is advancing to help in these efforts. Clinton concluded by affirming that the best way to honor Amb. Chris Stevens is to ” not retreat. We will keep leading, and we will stay engaged in the Maghreb and everywhere in the world, including in those hard places where America’s interests and values are at stake.”

Will the Monarchs Reform? Challenges to Democracy in the Gulf 

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

SEIU Headquarters, First Floor Conference Room

(1800 Massachusetts Ave. NW)

12:00 pm – 2:00 pm (A light lunch will be available at noon.)

While 2011 and 2012 have witnessed unprecedented changes across the Middle East and North Africa, the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates – have not been shaken to the same degree, with the notable exception of Bahrain.  Nonetheless, the dramatic uprisings across the region have had a clear impact on both the populations and governments of the Gulf, and it is worth examining political developments and the state of human rights in these countries.

How have the uprisings and political changes in other Arab countries been perceived by both the governments and citizens of the GCC? What steps have been taken by these governments to prevent similar changes from happening in their own countries, and how have these steps been received both domestically and internationally? What, if any, steps toward democratic reform have been taken, and what future actions might we expect from Gulf governments with regard to reform? How have the GCC governments changed their approach toward their citizens, civil society organizations, media outlets, and labor unions? How have the dramatic political changes in the region affected relations between the U.S. and the governments and people of the Gulf? And how can the U.S. and other international actors engage with the Gulf in a manner that helps its citizens realize their democratic aspirations?

Please join us for a discussion of these issues with:

Maryam al-Khawaja; Deputy Director, Gulf Center for Human Rights & Acting President, Bahrain Center for Human Rights

Les Campbell; Senior Associate and Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa Programs, National Democratic Institute

Kristin Diwan; Assistant Professor of Middle East Politics, School of International Service, American University

Moderator: Stephen McInerney; Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy

Click here to RSVP for the event.

We’ll also be live-tweeting from the event, so follow the conversation at #POMEDgcc.

If you’d like us to ask one of your questions, we’ll try to include a few from our virtual audience.

Please contact Alex Russell at alex.russell@pomed.org with any questions, or call  (202) 828-9660, ext 25.

You can find the film on Movies on Demand and iTunes. POMED screened the film at the West End Cinema last night, featuring remarks from Iran experts Alireza Nader of the RAND Corporation, Jamal Abdi from the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), and Suzanne Maloney from Brookings.

For the full notes, please continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

In her opening remarks, Leila Hilal observed that Tunisia is much less visible in Western media, reflecting the common thinking that the country is a “success story” in the Arab world today. But the real question, in her view, is whether Tunisia is really a model for revolutions across the region. While the conventional wisdom presumes that it is, it has become clear in recent months that Tunisia’s transition is fragile and may even be in peril.

Alexis Arieff spoke first, noting that Tunisians are at a point in their transition where they are taking stock of their progress. There have been a host of achievements, of course, while other steps are partially complete. She mentioned that the Constituent Assembly is still finding its way, balancing its specific task of writing the new constitution with broader legislative assignments. Judging by preliminary drafts of the new constitution released to the public, Arieff observed that the process appears to be an inclusive, good-faith effort at building a consensus document. Many questions remain, however, such as uncertainties related to the country’s electoral system and associated institutions, for example. On the topic of institutional reform, she noted that ongoing investigations have shed light the former regime’s modus operandi, but it remains to be seen how the new government will handle real questions of reforms, including the of trials of former regime officials.

Arieff added that the economy presents major challenges in the short run, and that the solutions must be more structural and long-term in nature. Regarding the security situation, Arieff mentioned problems related to transnational smuggling and the possible threat of terrorist activity, as well as “gaping problems” having to do with the operation of internal security services. Moreover, clashes between Salafi groups and security forces highlight, for some, the state’s failures in maintaining security and integrating marginalized groups into the political process. While much of the international press attention has focused on recent Salafi clashes, Arieff contended that the more important issues are longer-term, more complicated issues.

Next, Amine Ghali pointed out that since Tunisia is going through a transition process, many of the phenomena in the Tunisian landscape today are unique – not necessarily because there is something particularly unique about Tunisia, but because every transition process is different. He outlined that Tunisia is currently in the second phase of its transition: the first being the time from the revolution to elections, and the second being from the elections to the delivery of a constitution. The first phase was largely a success, in his view, in that it delivered free and fair elections; Ghali attributed that success to the fact that it was managed by neutral actors. The second phase, in contrast, is being administered by partisan actors. Unexpected political allies, in his view, are not leading an inclusive process, and Ghali stressed that the new Tunisia must not be built by the winners, but rather by everyone. He outlined several points of confrontation in Tunisia today, largely related to efforts by one group to monopolize a part of the transition process.

In response to a question about how Tunisians are working to build consensus around contested issues, Ghali stated that many actors are mobilizing to ensure that their voices are heard – labor unions, lawyers, and a host of other civil society actors, for example. He also noted that various commissions have been formed to investigate cases of corruption and human rights abuses, among other things, which are conducted via consultative and technical processes, rather than partisan ones. Through these types of projects, political actors are pushed to be more open to dialogue with others. On security sector reform, Ghali stressed that lessons from other transitions show that police reform is a key to broader institutional reform efforts.

Next, Tamara Wittes contended that Tunisia’s challenges are not any worse than challenges elsewhere. She also noted that while it is natural for the winners of elections to seek to design a system that is favorable to them, parties must create laws that will benefit them even if they lose in future elections. Such a strategy is not altruistic, but rather practical and self-interested in the long term. Wittes continued that one feature of Tunisia’s transition that bodes well for its future is that the military quickly removed itself from the political sphere. In addition, a number of Tunisia’s current political factions existed in exile under Ben Ali’s rule and engaged in dialogue with each other while in exile. Through this process, many forged agreement on basic principles related to democracy and the role of religion in politics. When those parties became active after the revolution, they shared some basis of understanding. However, since new parties were not part of the pre-revolution exile community dialogue, there is now a challenge of engaging those emerging actors so that everyone can agree on the rules of the game.

On the economy, Wittes observed that there were some early assumptions about how quickly the Tunisian economy could recover, based largely on how quickly it was expected that political stability would be achieved. However, the developmental disparities in Tunisia were greater than many people thought. Furthermore, the conflict next door in Libya also slowed Tunisian growth. And, while Europe would have had a central role to play in supporting Tunisia economically, it is of course struggling with its own economic difficulties.

When asked about U.S. strategy towards Tunisia, Wittes pointed out that U.S. assistance to the country has risen substantially since pre-revolution levels. Before the revolution, the U.S. embassy was severely constrained in its contacts and activities in Tunisia. Almost overnight, however, U.S. policy required a fundamental shift: major economic assistance needed to be quickly dispersed, for example, and election support needed to be administered. Now, the overall U.S. assistance package to Tunisia is about $190 million.

Following each speaker’s prepared remarks, Arieff asked Wittes about the future of U.S. assistance to Tunisia. She responded that one challenge for donors is that it is not possible to provide apolitical economic assistance. Assistance is a sensitive issue, and donors want to be responsive to consensus on the ground (unfortunately, Wittes added, there is not always consensus). Another challenge has to do with domestic American politics, related to Washington’s willingness and ability to commit substantial funds to assist new democracies during their transitions. She mentioned the Obama administration’s proposal for a Middle East Incentive Fund, which is a step in the right direction towards committing meaningful resources to transitioning countries. Ghali also pointed out that that although Tunisia is doing relatively well, compared to its neighbors, it still needs resources from the international community. He stressed that foreign assistance must be anchored to standards of human rights and democracy, including media freedoms, women’s rights, and other issues.

During the question-and-answer period, it was asked whether Tunisia will receive the amount of private investment that it requires. Wittes responded that it is difficult for Tunisia to attract private investment because it is a small market; thus, it must integrate itself into a wider Maghreb market. Western governments can play a role in facilitating that broader market development, she contended. Another economic development opportunity for Tunisia may also be as a transshipment point for companies that want to do business in Libya. For that to be feasible, however, Libya-Tunisia relations must improve.

Another audience member asked about the decline in optimism among Tunisian youth and former revolutionaries. Ghali addressed the issue of fatigue, noting that it is common in a post-revolution environment for youth to lose energy and even feel deceived as the transition process proceeds. While optimism and high youth involvement characterize the first stage of transitions, politicians generally take over during the second phase. Arieff pointed out that some degree of frustration can actually be constructive if channeled properly.

The problem of defining success in Tunisia was also mentioned, to which Wittes responded that a successful transition ends with an election that transfers power to another party. Responding to a question about Tunisia’s informal sector, Wittes emphasized that the Tunisian bureaucracy needs to be reformed to incentivize people to participate in the formal sector, adding that there is a problem with regulatory frameworks. Decentralization can help give people a greater sense of ownership over their efforts, but it can also have the opposite effect of empowering local power brokers.

Finally, on a question about civic education, Ghali said that while small civil society organizations are holding workshops and engaging in other projects aimed at educating Tunisians, the government has not made civic education a priority. He indicated that a wider civic education effort will be crucial moving forward.