Musharraf’s Resignation
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Troy at Abu Muqawama discusses Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation and whether the civilian government will continue to fight extremism as Musharraf did. “Even if they decide to do so, can either the government or the Army provide the leadership necessary to do so?”
In regard to politics, Blake Hounshell at FP Passport warns that Musharraf’s resignation “could lead to ugly infighting between [Asif] Zardari and [Nawaz] Sharif.”
Likewise, Steve Clemons at The Washington Note suggests that “Musharraf’s rivals now need to be ‘for’ something rather than just against him. Hopefully, the competing parties will continue to collaborate on taking on huge challenges facing the nation — but their record is not good.”
An editorial in The Daily Times (Pakistan), however, is not optimistic. It argues that the call for Musharraf’s resignation is fueled by “revenge and not justice.”
Arif Rafiq at The Pakistan Policy Blog takes a close look at Musharraf’s potential replacements and the possible voting coalitions that may emerge. While “the PPP and PML-N don’t have to work together to choose a president….that would endanger the governing coalition….For its next president, Pakistan needs a symbol that will help unite it in a time of increasing fragmentation.”
Meanwhile, an editorial in the Daily Star suggests that Musharraf’s resignation “should be a wake-up call for Arab leaders that any semblance of eternal power anchored in foreign backing always turns out to be a chimera, when local, regional and global conditions change, as they always do.”
In regard to U.S. policy, Max Bergmann at Democracy Arsenal declares that “the resignation of Musharraf represents the total collapse of eight years of Bush administration policy.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Pakistan, Political Parties, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Moving Forward in Pakistan
August 13th, 2008 by Sarah
Hassan Abbas at the Daily Star argues that the Pakistani army is unlikely to bail Pervez Musharraf out of the charges leveled against him and suggests that “it is time for Musharraf’s friends in the West to press him to serve his country one last time, by avoiding confrontation with his country’s democratic forces and calling it quits.”
An editorial in the Wall Street Journal warns that “the impeachment proceedings carry the whiff of personal vendetta rather than a good faith effort to fix Pakistan’s urgent problems” and expresses deep concern that unlike Musharraf, the coalition government fails to understand that “fighting religious extremism is as crucial to Pakistan’s sovereignty as it is to the free world’s.” Until it “demonstrates a better understanding of the dangers of militant Islam and shows a determination to fight it,” the country’s numerous problems will be left unresolved.
Posted in Military, Pakistan, Political Parties, Terrorism, al-Qaeda | Comment »
POMED Notes: Implications of Turkey’s Constitutional Court Decision
August 7th, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the Brookings Institution invited Cagri Erhan, Ibrahim Kalin, and Murat Yetkin to discuss the Turkish court’s ruling and its implications for Turkey’s relations with the United States and Europe. Cagri Erhan is Vice President of the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies, Ibrahim Kalin is the Founding Director of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, and Murat Yetkin is a columnist for Radikal, a Turkish publication. Brookings Visiting Fellow and former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Mark Parris moderated the event.
All of the speakers saw the court’s decision as “good step forward for democracy.”
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Event Notes, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
Recommendations Regarding Islamists
August 7th, 2008 by Sarah
Robert Satloff at Middle East Strategy at Harvard introduces several recommendations made by the late Peter Rodman to policymakers regarding Islamist political groups. Rodman had argued that merely because a group is elected through democratic processes, does not mean that it is democratic; they must also agree to certain liberal principles including ”political pluralism, limitations on government power, guarantees of individual and minority rights, the possibility of alternating parties in office.” Rodman also argued that the best way to encourage moderates is to “demonstrate by our firm resistance that radical policies are counterproductive.” In regard to U.S.-friendly autocrats, Rodman warned “it is not our job to accelerate the delegitimization of friendly governments that seem not to meet our standards, only to have them succeeded by something infinitely worse, as happened in Iran.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Perhaps Not A Victory For Democracy After All
August 5th, 2008 by Sarah
Spencer Boyer and Brian Katulis at the Center for American Progress laud the Turkish Constitutional Court’s recent decision, upholding the constitutionality of the AKP party. “Turkey is as important to the United States as Germany was during the Cold War, serving as a literal and figurative bridge between East and West.” They argue that “Muslim-majority countries all over the world have been watching the complicated interplay between Islam and secular democracy in Turkey, and many have viewed the AKP as an encouraging model for the future.”
However, Zeyno Baran at the Hudson Institute isn’t convinced that the decision is an outright victory for democracy. According to Baran, the AKP party has created a “climate of fear” by conducting government surveillance on its critics, and there is speculation that the Ergenekon case is mere political retribution. Ultimately, Baran warns that if the Ergenekon case turns out to be “mostly a show trial, then those concerned for Turkish democracy and rule of law need to reconsider where Turkey is headed.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
A Victory for Democracy
August 4th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in The International Herald Tribune applauds the Turkish Court’s decision to not ban the AKP party. “The court ruling is a victory for Turkey, for democracy and for the politics of moderation in the volatile Near and Middle East. That makes it a victory for the United States as well.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, Secularism, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »
AKP Triumph
July 31st, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in The Times Online (UK) lauds the Turkish Court’s decision to not ban the AKP party as“showing moderate Islamists in other countries that Islam is compatible with democracy, and that they should and can work within a secular legal framework to achieve their spiritual ends.”
Meanwhile, an editorial in The Wall Street Journal Europe argues that the “Court’s ruling is an opportunity for E.U. leaders to re-engage their large Muslim neighbor” and cites the prospect of E.U. membership as having “done more than anything else to solve some of Turkey’s fundamental problems.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
POMED Notes: Subcommittee Hearing: Update on the Situation in Lebanon
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs invited Jeffrey Feltman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the U.S. Department of State to discuss the current political situation in Lebanon in light of the recent Doha Agreement. Feltman welcomed the election of President Sulieman and the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Siniora, and reiterated President Bush’s policy of non-engagement with Hizbullah and Syria.
Rep. Gary Ackerman made opening remarks.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Political Parties, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Turkish Court Decision Upholds AKP Party
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Turkey’s highest court has just announced that it will not ban the AKP party as unconstitutional on charges of undermining the country’s secular system. However, Hasim Kilic, the head of the constitutional court, says that the party would instead be deprived of half of its funding from the state treasury and says that “the decision was a warning, a serious warning [to the party].”
Likewise, Wolfgango Piccoli, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, notes “It is certainly a strong warning. The AK Party was not just cut off from funding but also the actual voting of 6 to 5 is a signal. Has it let the AK Party off the hook? That depends on whether they have learned a lesson from what has happened and whether they will be able to show that they are committed to secularism.”
Mithat Sancar, a law professor of Ankara University, suggests that “Cutting the party’s treasury funds means that the evidence for their anti-secular activity was there but not substantial enough to impose a ban. Therefore they warned the party to be careful in their actions to avoid closure in the future.”
Although other parties have been banned in the past by the Turkish Court, Radio Netherlands reports that the case against the AK party was unusual because it marked “the first time it concerned a ruling party with an extensive power base.”
In regard to the decision’s economic consequences, Market Watch reports that after the decision came down, “Turkey’s stocks and currency soared…the decision was among the most market-friendly possible outcomes since it reduces political uncertainty, which had escalated sharply in Turkey in recent months.”
Meanwhile,Win Thin, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. remarks that “it’s ironic that the mildly Islamic AKP has been the best thing to happen for the economy and so investors can look forward to a continuation of orthodox policies.”
Others, such as Turkey’s Labor Minister Faruk Celik, said ruling not to ban the ruling AKP Party “was a victory for Turkish democracy.”
E.U. Parliament member, Joost Lagendijk signaled his relief, noting that “closing down AKP on the basis of this indictment clearly goes against European rules on closing down political parties and would have been an anti-democratic decision,” while a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed “hope that the decision by the court will contribute to restore political stability.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
How Successful Was The Surge?
July 29th, 2008 by Sarah
In a debate hosted by American Prospect, Stephen Biddle, Shawn Brimley, Juan Cole, Matthew Duss, Colin Kahl, Lawrence Korb, John Nagl, Michael O’Hanlon, Marina Ottaway, and Thomas E. Ricks all weigh in on the Surge in Iraq and address the factors that have contributed to Iraq’s recent stability.
Stephen Biddle argues that despite the Surge’s failure to bring about its promised political compromise, a completely different possibility arose. The “Anbar Model” or “bottom up” approach was “one that was neither planned nor anticipated nor intended when the surge was designed, but which has nevertheless become central to the prospects for stability in Iraq.”
Shawn Brimley argues that the Surge is only one of many factors that contributed to the relative stability in Iraq. “The decline in violence in 2007 had much more to do with a change in U.S. strategy than simply the additional troops. A change in strategy, plus the Sunni Awakening, the decision of Sadr to stand down his militia, and the use of concrete barriers in Baghdad to separate Sunni and Shia were all extremely important factors that, along with the additional troops, combined to help lower the violence.”
Juan Cole looks more to the various groups that received U.S. funding to fight jihadis, the success of the Badr Corps paramilitary of Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq over Sadr’s movement, and the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis, which left few mixed neighborhoods.
Matthew Duss warns that the “Anbar strategy,” which resulted in deals between Sunni tribal militias and the U.S., instead of redirecting political authority to a centralized government, could breed larger problems later. “It’s true that security is a prerequisite for state-building, but if that security only comes at the expense of the legitimacy of the state we’re supposedly trying to build, then we have an entirely new problem on our hands.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Iraq, Military, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Islamist Parties and Democracy
July 29th, 2008 by Sarah
The Journal of Democracy, of the National Endowment for Democracy, has released this quarter’s issue focusing on “Islamist Parties and Democracy.” Contributors include Tamara Cofman Wittes, Husain Haqqani, and Hillel Fradkin among others.
Wittes provides a more nuanced understanding of Islamist groups, as the “usual division of Islamists into ‘moderate’ and ‘extremist’ categories is less helpful than a threefold classification that suggests a distinct policy approach toward each group.”
Husain Haqqani and Hillel Fradkin explore the paradox of Islamists parties and their roots. “Do such parties thus represent a decisive break with the Islamist past that may portend revisions in other areas of Islamist doctrine as well?”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Turkey’s Court Meets Today
July 28th, 2008 by Sarah
Turkey’s highest court meets today to decide whether the AKP party should be banned as unconstitutional. BBC News reports that “if the party is closed down or large numbers of its senior members are banned from politics, it will deepen the political fault lines between AKP supporters and secularists,” and “could lead to a period of political instability.” In addition, BBC News notes that “the case has already caused uncertainty in Turkey’s stock market,” and that “a ban could harm Ankara’s long-running bid to join the European Union.”
Posted in EU, Islam and Democracy, Political Islam, Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
Morocco’s Islamists and the Problem of Participation
July 28th, 2008 by Adam
The Carnegie Endowment for Peace has an intriguing report by Amr Hamzawy about Morocco’s Islamist, Party for Justice and Development (PJD). Hamzawy sees that the PJD, though entrenched in the nation’s political system, is challenged by various constraints, including the system’s semi-authoritarian nature, the power of the King, and competition to win the Islamist vote. This puts the PJD in a perpetually unstable posture as it must play by the rules to remain politically acceptable to the powers that be, while it cannot be so moderate that it alienates its religiously oriented constituency. Hamzawy mentions that while some of these factors are unique to Morocco, it does highlight the dilemmas faced by Islamist parties seeking peaceful political participation.
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Morocco, Political Islam, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »
More on the Threat to Turkish Democracy
July 25th, 2008 by Amanda
The Daily Star continues its coverage of the AKP’s potential banning from political participation by the Turkish Constitutional Court. Steven Cook argues that “the consequences of the political turmoil in Turkey should not be underestimated” and suggests that a more pressing concern is determining who will govern if the AKP and its leaders are ousted. If a group such as the Republican People’s Party that “is weak, anti-democratic and anti-Western” takes control, and voters become disenfranchised, “it is hard to think of a worse scenario for a country that until recently was poised to consolidate hard fought democratic gains and economic progress.”
Posted in Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
Morocco’s Islamist Party Selects Moderate Leader
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Morocco’s Islamist Justice and Development Party has selected Abdelilah Benkiran, a leading moderate figure, as the group’s new leader replacing Saad Eddine Othmani.
Ahmad Hamouch at IslamOnline.net notes Benkiran’s moderate position and points to his focus “on the everyday concerns rather than on religious agenda,” which Benkiran describes as “inspired by our Islamic background but a religious background linked to the citizen’s needs…The citizens suffer from poverty, unemployment, a housing crisis and problems in education and healthcare.”
Democracy Digest notes, however, that the PJD faces criticism from “radical Islamists opposed to its accommodation with the state and from secular democrats who believe that, despite its incremental approach, the party retains a commitment to ultimately implementing sharia law.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Morocco, Political Islam, Political Parties | Comment »
POMED Notes: Islamist Parties and Democracy
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the International Forum for Democratic Studies and the National Endowment for Democracy invited Hillel Fradkin, Amr Hamzawy, Laith Kubba, and Tamara Cofman Wittes to assess the rise of Islamist parties and its implications for democracy in the region. All of the speakers agreed with Wittes’ statement that Islamist parties “are not evolving in a vacuum. The U.S. is part of this, and rather than just sitting here, we must take responsibility for what happens next.”
Marc Plattner of the International Forum for Democratic Studies and Vice President at the National Endowment for Democracy moderated the event.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Event Notes, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraqi Accord Front Rejoins the Al-Maliki Government
July 21st, 2008 by Sarah
Al-Jazeera (via Juan Cole at Informed Comment) reports that the “Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front rejoined the al-Maliki government. It left last summer over accusations that al-Maliki ignored Sunni sensitivities, refused to speak to his vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, coddled Shiite militias that ethnically cleansed Sunnis, and kept tens of thousands of Sunnis in prison without charges or due process.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
The Future of Turkey’s Political Landscape
July 17th, 2008 by Sarah
Bitter Lemons hosts a debate on Turkey’s political future.
Soli Ozel examines the highly-explosive AKP and Ergenekon cases and argues that“the old authoritarian republican order and mindset are incapable of rejuvenation.” However, Ozel also suggests that the AKP “lacks the imagination and the commitment needed to forge a new consensus [to] propel Turkey forward in a liberal-democratic direction.”
Ersin Kalaycioglu describes Turkey’s divided political backdrop as a “kulturkampf of secularists” versus a “kulturkampf of traditional religious conservatives.” Ultimately, Kalaycioglu argues that the conflict undermines the legitimacy of Turkey’s government, makes democratization more difficult, and turns the rule of law into merely a tool in a power struggle.
Yet Fadi Hakura seems optimistic, arguing that “Islamic and secular values are apparently converging among the Turkish people.” This, combined with plummeting popular support for all major political parties and the “unprecedented silence of the military,” leads Hakura to believe that “Turkey could be on the cusp of a novel style of politics.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Judiciary, Political Islam, Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
In a Turkish War of Wills
July 11th, 2008 by Amanda
A Christian Science Monitor commentary suggests that” if Turkey’s leaders fail not only to respect the democracy they have but to improve it through eventual constitutional and judicial reform, they will simply drag their country down in a war of wills.” As the Secularists continue to fear the Islamists’ encroachment upon the separation of mosque and state, they are clinging to their power in the courts to place a ban on the religiously oriented AKP. The article posits that “the onus is on the governing party to take every possible step to reassure Turks that it indeed supports a secular, rule-based democracy.”
Foreign Policy Magazine documents Turkey’s Year of Turbulence in pictures, including its rocky relationship with neighboring Iraq. Additionally, The New York Times reports on Prime Minister Recap Erdogan’s recent visit to the nation - the first by a Turkish leader in 18 years.
Posted in Judiciary, Political Parties, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
POMED Notes: Religious Freedom in Turkey
July 9th, 2008 by Sarah
The Congressional Human Rights Caucus Task Force on International Religious Freedom invited Ziya Meral, a Turkish researcher, and Patricia Carley, Policy Director for the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom to lead a staff briefing on the current political and social scene within Turkey and the status of religious freedom in the country. Both speakers agreed that banning the AKP party could be disastrous for democracy in Turkey. All comments were made off the record.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Event Notes, Freedom, Human Rights, Political Islam, Political Parties, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
