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Susan Corke opened the event by saying that this is a moment of opportunity in Turkey not seen in years, and will hopefully be part of a positive transition. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) said it will withdraw its militants by May 8. Corke acknowledged that the peace process will probably be fragile, but said there real hope that the parties will join together in a common cause to end the conflict. She added that real change will require real commitment on the part of Turkey’s leaders to fulfill Turkey’s democratic process as there is a real danger that an authoritarian model could emerge.

Howard Eissenstat called Turkey a conundrum. In many ways it is an unmitigated success: booming economy, remarkable educational system, incredible cultural dynamism, and democracy that has deep roots. Yet he said the problems are nonetheless extremely grave. Eissenstat outlined three sets of problems, saying that two are deeply rooted and difficult to address while the third is easier. First, Turkey is an illiberal democracy—Turkish national culture is imbued with an allergic reaction to diversity and a militarism that feels like the first half of the 20th century. He said this has made it very difficult for groups who are not seen as part of the national whole to freely voice their identity. Eissenstat said that Turkey’s cultural intolerance that has improved, but that it would be difficult find an Armenian or Kurd that would say that they feel like full members of society. Second, Turkey’s Freedom and Justice Party’s (AKP) remarkable success as a political machine has caused Turkish freedoms to be constrained by the patronage associated with it: “If you go up against it, you get hurt; if you make peace with it, you have a pathway to success.” He added that the interweaving of the party and society is producing a democratically elected single-party state, and that there are no easy answers. Eissenstat said the third area was the legal realm. Turkey has recognized that it needs to increase freedom of association, religion, and expression, as demonstrated by its multiple judicial reform packages. However, he said that Turkey seems to be engaged in a process of bargaining with the international community, trying to find the point where it will stop complaining. He concluded that the AKP will continue to consolidate power, making him pessimistic for the future.

Yigal Schleifer provided a broader look for the last couple years. He noted that after 12 years of control, the AKP is still able to present itself as the new kid on the block and face of reform, even though it has in many ways it has become the state it once opposed. He said that Erdogan and the AKP have shown a great knack for shifting quickly when necessary. Two years ago they seemed to be at a crossroads with the EU process looking dim, the “zero friends with neighbors” policy falling apart, and worsened relations with the U.S. The AKP took a hard, nationalist turn to the right, Turkey seemed to take a step back on the Kurdish issue, and there was regression in freedom of expression and media. Schleifer said it was a discouraging picture, but became a moment of reinvention for the AKP. They injected new energy EU process, hardened and sharpened their foreign policies, and most significantly, pursued a new Kurdish opening. Schleifer attributed the change to Turkey returning to the Cold War approach of seeking a western alliance in an uncertain world. It embraced Europe economically and realized that its ambitions were being hindered by how it was treating the Kurds. Schleifer added that the emerging ‘Kurdish crescent,’ and the AKP’s desire to make better inroads in southeast Turkey to support constitutional efforts, encouraged Erdogan to deal with the issue sooner than later. He said it is hard to know what to expect because Erdogan’s foreign policy includes strengthening ties with NATO vying for leadership of a new non-aligned movement. On the domestic front, he said that the AKP is good at making its policies look good, but they often include self-interested power grabs. The biggest example is the current constitutional process. Turkey needs a new constitution that enshrines civil liberties against protecting the state, but the new presidency has become the primary issue. Meanwhile, Turkey’s domestic record on freedom of expression and control of the press is deteriorating.

Corke began the Q&A by asking the panelists to map out specific recommendations for how Turkey could get to where it needs to be, and what role the U.S. and the West could play. Eissenstat said that it was important for Turkey’s friends to address cultural issues because Turkey is movable. He specifically said that when Turkey announces its fourth package of judicial reforms western allies should tell it to “finish the job.” He added that Erdogan often ends up doing exactly what his critics ask, so the West should stop taking his ruffled feathers so seriously—name and shame can actually work with him. Eissenstat recommended that President Obama mention that the U.S. hopes Turkey will address constitutional articles that are damaging freedom of expression. Schleifer said that Turkey has 21st century ambitions and 19th century problems, such as the Kurdish and Cyprus issues. He argued that Europe needs to always realize what an important role the EU process plays for Turkey, and that everyone should be involved with helping in the new Kurdish process, which is much bigger than Turkey. He said the West should stop worrying about whether the AKP is too Islamist and realize that its various structural issues are Turkish and would be problems for whomever was in power in Turkey. Corke recommended keeping the EU accession process alive because it was an engine of reform and the criteria by which Turkey would like to be judged.

In response to audience questions, Eissenstat said that Erdogan could do a remarkable thing in the area of ethnic intolerance given his solid Sunni credentials. He said that Turkish leaders ultimately don’t believe Turkey will become part of the EU but the process is valuable for all sides as Turkey and the EU can still grow together and get people into the room. Schleifer agreed, doubted that Turkey even wants full membership, and predicted a privileged partnership. He suggested reform might be possible without the EU process. The panelists agreed that Turkey needs to be motivated from within, not merely pushed from the outside. Schleifer noted that there is significant public enmity between Turkey and Israel and predicted that their relationship would be similar to that Israel’s with the Gulf countries. Eissenstat said that Erdogan realized that his stance on Israel-Palestine was not serving Turkey’s interest. He called the PKK-Turkey negations a potential game changer that should be supported but was pessimistic about their ultimate success, because if they are not completed before the new constitution is in place, Erdogan can turn his back, leaving the Kurds holding nothing. He added that concessions on Cyprus had been possible but are now unlikely. Both panelists called the AKP’s foreign policy ad-hoc and amateurish compared to its domestic program, but Eissenstat noted that though Syria is sucking the region in Turkey has avoided it better than others thus far. Schleifer said the opposition parties have not kept up and need to make serious changes. Eissenstat added that some blame can be put on the increasingly fawning nature of the press toward the AKP, which has intimidated the media with arrests and firings, leaving newspapers without hard-hitting reporting and columns.

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Amy Hawthorne began the discussion by stating that the issues of human rights and rule of law are a barometer for the progress and direction of Egypt’s political transformation. She also stated that the failure to achieve or begin human rights reforms has been one of the biggest surprises and disappointments of the transition.

Heba Morayef began by saying that she had initially been cautiously optimistic about the Muslim Brotherhood but any optimism had been eliminated by the recent crisis in November and December. She stated that the United States’ response to that crisis made concerns that the U.S. is not on the side of human rights understandable. Morayef also stated that police abuse has been a problem for two years and the Egyptian government has failed to realize that the abuse is destabilizing. She then discussed the lack of accountability for police, noting Morsi’s refusal to release a fact-finding committee’s report that would be the first official acknowledgment of police responsibility for violence against protesters. She also stated that the failure to hold police accountable for abuse contributes to protesters’ sense of disillusionment. Morayef pointed to the obstacles to the political space for organizing as an additional point of concern, saying countries cannot claim to be democratic if they limit the political space for criticism. She also noted the current draft NGO law before the Shura Council as an alarming example of these restrictions. Morayef asserted that international actors are still able to promote human rights in Egypt, saying, “The opportunity for leverage is now…while the [Morsi] administration is still outward looking.”

Mahmoud Salem stated that there is no respect for rule of law in Egypt, pointing to a variety of recent incidents of citizen arrests, retaliatory beatings, and lynchings. He then described a recent incident in which President Morsi was mobbed during a public event in Upper Egypt and claimed that in spite of Morsi’s assertions of his own legitimacy and calls to obey the rule of law, there is little evidence that he believes either of these things. He also claimed there is an increasing pattern of government inability to exercise its power. Salem stated that there are two ways to achieve change peacefully: protesting and the judiciary. However, he claimed that the Morsi government has no interest in protests and that it has taken the teeth of the judiciary. Elections are the only remaining peaceful avenue, but they have lost all legitimacy. According to Salem, the only political action left is violence. Salem noted that the postponement of elections is particularly problematic because they will not occur until September in order to accommodate Ramadan. He said this is particularly concerning because October is a month for revolution. He stated, “Egypt is in God’s hands now. It’s not even in the army’s hands now.” Salem said that he does not know what can be done about the situation and said that he is watching for the government to fall apart entirely or to become purely symbolic.

Tarek Radwan offered additional comments on the presentations, saying, “Obviously Egypt is struggling at this point.” Referring to Morayef’s earlier point about the crisis in November and December, Radwan stated that an argument could be made that the breakdown began even earlier with Morsi’s dissolution of parliament. He agreed that there is no political will for reforms but he argued that part of the problem is the Morsi government’s insecurity about its power and control. He also noted the challenge presented by the ambiguity in who we’re dealing with, citing the vague boundaries and conflicting messages from Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood leadership. He echoed Morayef’s hopes about the “outward-looking” Morsi administration as an opportunity for external pressure. Radwan also noted that Egypt illustrated the potential impact of aid. Regarding policy toward Egypt, he said Europe is “taking the right steps” and Secretary Kerry is beginning to take the right steps. However, he said, “The Obama administration has been silent when it should have spoken out and spoken out when it should have been silent.”

Hawthorne then began the question-and-answer portion of the discussion by asking the panelists about their view of the draft NGO law. Morayef stated that the law’s restrictions formalize an already problematic situation by handing the organizations and human rights defenders over to the security forces. She also stated that the NGO investigations have had a deterrent effect on youth groups organizing. Responding to a question on the interactions between the Egyptian government and rights institutions, Morayef stated that “access is definitely better” but that the quality of access is unclear and access to the presidency can be particularly difficult. She also noted that litigation has been a key tool for human rights defenders but that the impact on policy is unclear and varied. She said that they are back in the “naming and shaming stage.”

In response to questions on conditioning aid, Salem stated that he likes the European approach. He said conditions should link assistance directly to very specific democratic reforms, such as the inclusion of technocrats in the government. He also stated that it would be interesting to see individual programs directed at specific aspects of economic development. However, he saw little opportunity for pressure until there was a total breakdown in the government. Morayef argued that human rights conditions on military aid are not particularly effective but that there is a good argument for rebalancing aid. She also stated that the U.S. needs to be consistent in the narrative it presents. When prompted to discuss alternative instruments like public rhetoric, she stated that there is no efficacy if public statements do not back up private engagement. Salem added that the opposition feels it is futile to challenge the Morsi regime because they perceive the administration as having U.S. backing.

Morayef stated that she believes the refusal to release the results of the fact-finding committee is linked to its identification of military involvement in violence against citizens. She also noted a significant shift in Morsi’s rhetoric on the role and activity of the police over the last two months. On the dissolution of parliament, Radwan claimed that the court had exceeded its mandate and that this action gave Morsi the opportunity to act in ways the U.S. has disliked. Responding to a question on the degree of organization of the opposition in Washington, Morayef stated that the human rights community in Egypt had not invested significantly in international advocacy in the past but that a shift toward greater international efforts was beginning. Salem echoed her point.

Photo Credit: Reuters/Jacquelyn Martin/Pool

Secretary of State John Kerry announced Thursday that the United States will provide $60 million in nonlethal assistance to the Syrian Opposition Coalition. The assistance will include food rations and medical supplies as well as training, but according to the State Department will not include cash. Describing the impact of the assistance, Kerry said, “It will strengthen the organizational capacity of the Syrian Opposition Coalition.” He added, “we need to stand on the side of those in this fight who want to see Syria rise again in unity and see a democracy and human rights and justice.” In comments following the announcement, Syrian Opposition Coalition Chairman Moaz al-Khatib outlined the coalition’s requests during the talks and said, “the international community can no longer stand aside and watch what is happening in Syria.” Several European countries have also discussed providing nonlethal assistance to the Syrian rebels but have not announced a specific plan.

According to a senior State Department official, the $60 million package will be used “to enable the SOC to help local councils and communities in liberated areas of Syria expand the delivery of basic goods and essential services, and to fulfill administrative functions, including security, sanitation, and educational services” and to increase the SOC’s capacity to establish rule of law and interim justice in these areas. The U.S. will send technical advisers, or contracted experts, to work with U.S. implementing partners, whom the official characterized as “NGO folks who specialize in getting this kind of civilian support in quickly.” The advisers will ensure compliance with U.S. regulations on use of foreign assistance through “vetting, oversight, and monitoring.” The official outlined two goals for the assistance package to the coalition, saying the U.S. is attempting “to strengthen them in Cairo as a political organization that actually can begin to deliver concrete assistance to their people” and to ensure that the administration of the newly liberated areas “meets the needs of the people and is done in a manner that comports with the human rights standards and rule-of-law standards that the SOC has articulated.”

On Wednesday, the Washington Post‘s editorial board called for “direct political and military intervention on the side of the opposition.” The board urged the administration to provide training and non-lethal equipment to the rebels. However, in contrast to the administration’s aid package, the board argued that “heavy weapons are also essential.” The Post also said the U.S. should help the Syrian opposition establish an alternative government and then recognize it as the only legitimate government of Syria. In the Huffington Post, Dr. Joseph Blady argued against aid to the opposition. Blady claimed that U.S. involvement would make the situation worse rather than changing the equation favorably, arguing that decisions to aid the opposition “ignore the fact that military stores, regardless of their origin, somehow always end up in the hands of people antagonistic to everything we stand for.”

Photo Credit: Ishara S.KODIKARA/AFP/Getty Images

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia executed Rizana Nafeek, a Sri Lankan maid convicted of killing the infant she was caring for in 2005. Nafeek was 17 when the incident occurred, and she was tried and sentenced. She spoke no Arabic but was reported to have admitted committing the crime before she retracted the statement claiming physical duress. She said the baby accidentally choked while drinking.

Human rights groups and foreign officials condemned the execution. Philip Luther of Amnesty International said, “Despite a chorus of pleas for Saudi Arabian authorities to step in and reconsider Rizana Nafeek’s death sentence, they went ahead and executed her anyway, proving once more how woefully out of step they are with their international obligations regarding the use of the death penalty.” Nisha Varia at Human Rights Watch said, “Rizana was just a child herself at the time of the baby’s death, and she had no lawyer to defend her and no competent interpreter to translate her account. Saudi Arabia should recognize, as the rest of the world long has, that no child offender should ever be put to death.” Catherine Ashton, the E.U.’s foreign affairs head expressed “dismay”, while U.K. Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt condemned the beheading. On Thursday, Sri Lanka, which had appealed to Saudi Arabia to stay the execution, withdrew its ambassador. When asked on Wednesday, the U.S. Department of State had no comment.

On Tuesday, Amnesty International reported that Saudi Arabia still appeared to be detaining at least 11 women that were originally arrested on January 5th for protesting against the continued detention of their relatives. Luther said that “According to reports and photos from the protest, these women and children merely gathered peacefully and held placards bearing their detained relatives’ names and the length of their detention.”

Photo Credit: Reuters

United States Ambassador to Lebanon, Maura Connelly, met with Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss the upcoming elections in Lebanon, which are currently scheduled for June 2013. Connelly said the U.S. supports “efforts to implement an electoral law that would pave the way for free, fair and transparent elections,” while the U.S. Embassy released a statement urging Lebanon to “uphold its democratic and constitutional principles and hold elections on time.” Berri, who urged leaders of opposing political camps to resume talks on a new draft law for the elections, said “if we don’t reach a positive breakthrough, then there would be something missing in our sense of patriotism.” Meanwhile, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel warned that elections may be postponed “if a new electoral law, other than the current 1960 law, is not agreed upon.”

In Jordan, campaigning got underway for parliamentary elections scheduled for January 23, which includes 820 candidates and 60 joint tickets competing for 150 seats. King Abdullah encouraged Jordanians not to boycott the elections amid calls from opposition groups for citizens not to vote. A mass rally is scheduled for January 18 to protest the elections. Meanwhile, Members from the European Union Election Observation Mission deployed 24 observers to all 12 governorates to “observe the entire electoral process prior, during and after the parliamentary elections” announced Deputy Chief Observer Dimitra Ioannou.

In neighboring Syria, United Nations Envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi warned “the situation is bad and it’s getting worse.” Brahimi’s comments came after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said it was impossible to change the mind of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “When the opposition says that only Assad’s departure would allow for the start of talks on the fate of the country, we think that’s incorrect,” Lavrov argued. Meanwhile, in an op-ed for the Washington Post, Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) urged the United States and its allies ”to channel assistance to the newly established Syrian opposition council,” in addition to providing “weapons and other lethal assistance to the opposition military command.”

Photo Credit: Manu Brabo/ AP

The U.S. Department of State called on both sides of the Syrian conflict to “stop unlawful attacks on civilians and comply with international law” on December 17. The call came after reports that a number of civilians had been killed or wounded in the Yarmouk district of Damascus, as a result of air raids and fighting between the government and the opposition. Hundreds of Palestinians fled Yarmouk refugee camp toward Lebanon, prompting a warning from the Syrian government to not assist the opposition in any way. Syrian Alawites have also been forced out of Idlib by members of Jabhat al-Nusra in recent days.

The European Union put “all options on the table to support the Syrian opposition,” including the possibility of supplying non-lethal military equipment or arms. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron were not in agreement as to whether or not a standing arms embargo should be lifted to allow for such action. Thomas Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute released an op-ed highlighting the Obama administration’s dilemma in addressing Syria’s chemical weapons. Donnelly noted that despite the president’s declaration that movement of chemical weapons is a “red line,” it is “doubtful…that we have…a comprehensive understanding of Syria’s chemical capabilities.” He asserts that aside from a direct ground campaign, the U.S. has little capacity to actually police all of the chemical weapons in the country before they are dispersed to groups such as Hezbollah.

According to Lebanese publication Al-Akhbar, Syria’s vice president Farouk al-Sharaa publicly announced that the Syrian Army cannot defeat the armed rebels and the regime now seeks a negotiated settlement. Al-Sharaa expressed concern that the opposition would only topple the current regime by pushing “the country into chaos and a cycle of violence that has no end,” and that this was not a desirable outcome for anyone. In a recent video the chief of the Syrian intelligence’s public relations division,” Alaaddin al-Sabbagh, declared that he had defected from “the Assad criminal regime” and urged others to do the same.

Photo Credit: YouTube

Syrian National Coalition President Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib met with European Union leaders, including E.U. Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton on December 10. The European Commission announced that it would provide 30 million euros in humanitarian aid to the Syrian people, bringing its total contribution to 126 million euros. In Germany, four employees of the Syrian embassy were expelled in an effort to reduce German “relations with the Assad regime to an absolute minimum,” according to a statement issued by Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. Meanwhile, nine Syrian judges defected as the opposition continues to gain momentum.

At least 17 people were killed in Tripoli, Lebanon during clashes between Sunnis and Alawites, a new indication of deepening fault lines stemming from the Syrian civil war. The latest conflict began after a number of Sunni fighters were killed in an ambush by pro-Assad forces as they tried to enter Syria to join opposition fighters. Sunnis in Tripoli, angry over videos that allegedly show the men’s bodies being stabbed and kicked, attacked Alawites, starting days of clashes between militias.

Additionally, the U.N. Special Representative for Syria and the Arab League, Lakhdar Brahimi, held talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns on December 9. ”All three parties reaffirmed their common assessment that the situation in Syria was bad and getting worse. They stressed that a political process to end the crisis in Syria was necessary and still possible,” said a statement from the Special Representative.

A recent column by Jackson Diehl criticized the Obama Administration for its lack of action in Syria. “Officials seem to have no plan, other than to hope that the scenarios they are thinking about won’t happen,” he wrote. Diehl advocated that, “The most obvious step would be to see to it that the forces the West favors are at least as well armed and equipped as the Alawis and the jihadists.” Instead, he lamented, “The United States is ensuring the opposite, by denying military aid to secular rebels even as Islamist governments arm their favorites.”

Photo Credit: AFP

Khaled Meshaal is due to make his first ever visit to the Gaza Strip. He will join celebrations for Hamas’s 25th anniversary and meet members of different Palestinian movements, “as well as representatives of the families of martyrs, prisoners and those injured in the last Israeli aggression against Gaza,” said Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri. Israelis contend that a power struggle is taking place between the internal and external factions of Hamas. “There is a debate between [the two groups] on several levels, and Meshaal’s external faction is much more moderate,” noted Shlomo Brom, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies. However, an anonymous senior Israeli official said he was not convinced that Meshaal had done enough to restore his credibility within Hamas as undisputed leader. “Between the various leaders, there are small differences between what they say, but at the end of the day, it is all shades of black. They all lead a terror group,” he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Berlin for a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany’s abstention from the U.N. vote on Palestine and Israel’s decision to build new settlements has soured relations between the two countries. “Israel has undermined the trust in its willingness to negotiate,” German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said of the settlement plans, adding that they led to the “further shrinking of the geographical space for a future Palestinian state which has to be the basic requirement for a two state solution.”  Netanyahu acknowledged that, “There is obviously a difference of view in Europe on the issue of the settlements.”

King Abdullah II of Jordan visited Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank as a gesture of support following Palestine’s upgraded status at the U.N.  The Palestinians “highly appreciate the important role his majesty and Jordan played internationally and regionally and at the U.N. to achieve this important historical achievement,” said presidential spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina.

Photo Credit: The New York Times

The United Nations General Assembly approved the upgrade of Palestine to a nonmember observer state at the United Nations on Thursday, with 138 votes in favor, nine opposed, and 41 abstentions. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the resolution “unfortunate and counterproductive,” while Israeli spokesman Mark Regev said the vote was nothing but “negative political theatre” that is “going to hurt peace.” The status of nonmember observer state provides Palestine with additional tools to challenge Israel in international legal forums.

Meanwhile, ahead of the U.N. vote, a bipartisan group of Senators introduced legislation SA 3023 as an amendment to S. 3245, the National Defense Authorization Act currently under consideration in the Senate, that would cut assistance to the Palestinian Authority if they file charges against Israel in the International Criminal Court. Additionally, amendments SA 3139 and SA 3171 were introduced to the same bill. SA 3171 bars the U.S. from funding the United Nations if the General Assembly votes to upgrade Palestine’s status in any manner, while SA 3139  cuts funding for any country that votes to upgrade Palestinian status. “We are committed, Democrats and Republicans, to using every means at our disposal to ensure that this U.N. General Assembly vote does not serve as a precedent for elevating the status of the PLO,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

“Thursday’s overwhelming U.N. vote to elevate the status of Palestine at the world body inflicts yet another fracture in the facade of Western solidarity, exposing a divide among European Union and NATO member states over U.S. policy in the Middle East,” warned Carol J. Williams, in The L.A. Times. “Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister (of Israel), has argued that the Palestinians’ new status is compatible with a two-station solution – and therefore not necessarily bad news,” reminded Gideon Rachman in The Financial Times. “As Palestinian celebrations die out, focus shifts once again to Washington, where Abbas and his prime minister Salam Fayyad now have to deal not only with an administration reluctant to dive into any new peace initiative but also with Congress,” cautioned Nathan Guttman in The Jewish Daily Forward. 

• Jordanian Protests Surge, Protesters Face Charges

• Funds Pledged for European Endowment for Democracy

• Yemen’s National Dialogue Delayed

• Syrian Coalition Gains International Support

• New POMED Report Assesses Bahrain’s BICI Progress

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