Elections Limbo
August 8th, 2008 by Amanda
Iraqi provincial elections once scheduled for October have now been postponed without a definitive date, which according to Eric Martin at American Footprints, “represent[s] the larger, as yet unreconciled, political conflicts” within Iraqi leadership.
The Washington Post states that “the elections are especially vital to Iraq’s disenfranchised Sunnis, who boycotted the last provincial elections in 2005.” Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark agrees, saying that their “anger …is already palpable”.
The consensus appears to be that security may destabilize if Sunnis who led the Awakening movement feel marginalized from power. As Dr. Irak at Abu Muqawama puts it, “provincial elections are needed to allow emerging Sunni elites … a chance to gain a seat at the table and make a legitimate claim to political power and the patronage resources that flow from that power.”
The sentiment is echoed by Shawn Brimly at Democracy Arsenal,who writes that “the so-called Awakening Councils along with the Sons of Iraq, helped bring the some semblance of security to their communities, and the elections were seen as an opportunity for them to transition from local political and security organizations into the mainstream of Iraqi political leadership. With these elections now in doubt, it is unclear how these groups will react to the IIP and the Maliki government.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
Convoluted Elections In Israel
August 7th, 2008 by Sarah
Bernard Gwertzman of the Council on Foreign Relations interviews Gerald M. Steinberg on Israeli Prime Minister Olmert’s plans to step down from office. Gwertzman illuminates the Israeli political scene, and shares insight into who may emerge as Israel’s new leader and why the electoral system is so convoluted.
Posted in Elections, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan | Comment »
POMED Notes: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Challenges in the Fall and Beyond
August 6th, 2008 by Sarah
Today, the Brookings Institution hosted foreign policy experts Kenneth Pollack, Bruce Riedel and Jeremy Shapiro for a discussion on the state of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as U.S. efforts to partner with Pakistan in confronting al Qaeda. Kenneth Pollack is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Bruce Riedel is Director of Research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Jeremy Shapiro is a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and Director of Research at the Center on the United States and Europe. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution moderated the event.
Riedel called for the U.S. to “clearly stand behind the new democratically-elected government” in Pakistan, while Pollack recommended that the U.S. aggressively engage Iran in order to best serve our interests in the region.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Iran, Iraq, Legislation, Pakistan, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Limited Political Progress in Iraq
August 4th, 2008 by Sarah
An emergency session of the Iraqi Parliament planned for this past weekend in order to settle disagreements over the provincial election law was cancelled. Juan Cole summarizes the situation simply. “No provincial election law means, probably, no provincial elections this year. No oil law. No significant Shiite-Sunni reconciliation. Politics gridlocked in Iraq.”
Meanwhile, Kurdish members have called for the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to be annexed to the nearby Kurdistan Regional Authority, a move that was vehemently rejected by the city’s Turkmen and Arabs.
An editorial, in the International Herald Tribune strongly opposes the annexation of Kirkuk, and blames the U.S. and Kurds for not seriously looking for political compromise. “Compromises on Kirkuk are theoretically possible, but only the UN seems to be seriously trying to find one.”
A New York Times editorial agrees.
And Helena Cobban in The Christian Science Monitor argues that only the U.N. can mobilize the global resources, the non-military tools, and expertise necessary to sort out the political divisions in Iraq. However, for the U.N. to be successful, Cobban argues that U.S. must form a “strong, new compact” with the U.N. after “Washington’s deep estrangement” in recent years.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Sectarianism, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
Response to Wittes
July 31st, 2008 by Sarah
Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations responds to Tamara Cofman Wittes’ article for the Journal of Democracy. Wittes puts forth some criteria to distinguish those Islamist groups that have a genuine commitment to democracy and those who don’t. Cook, however, is skeptical and argues that perhaps Islamist participation in elections “is the result of strategic calculation,” as the “most efficient means of accumulating political power as opposed to say, fomenting revolution or embracing democracy.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: Subcommittee Hearing: Update on the Situation in Lebanon
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs invited Jeffrey Feltman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the U.S. Department of State to discuss the current political situation in Lebanon in light of the recent Doha Agreement. Feltman welcomed the election of President Sulieman and the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Siniora, and reiterated President Bush’s policy of non-engagement with Hizbullah and Syria.
Rep. Gary Ackerman made opening remarks.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Political Parties, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Kurdish Walk-Out
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark suggests that the recent walkout of Kurdish Iraqi Parliament members at the vote on the country’s provincial election law spells trouble for political reconciliation. “At a minimum, it seems likely that President Jalal Talabani will not vote to ratify the law, which means it will not come into effect. Even worse would be if the decision drives Kurds to now demand the implementation of Article 140 [the deeply contentious referendum on the status of Kirkuk]… And then, of course, there’s the prospect of a mass Kurdish boycott of the provincial elections leading to a round of disenfranchisement reminiscent of the Sunni community in 2005.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraqi Provincial Elections Set for Late December
July 21st, 2008 by Sarah
The Iraqi Elections Committee has proposed to postpone elections until late December 2008 due to the failure of the Iraqi Parliament to pass its election law. Al-Zaman (via Juan Cole at Informed Comment) states that the new date is set for December 22.
Posted in Elections, Iraq | Comment »
Possible Delay for Iraq’s Provincial Elections
July 16th, 2008 by Sarah
Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark reports that the vote on Iraq’s provincial elections law has been postponed, after Kurdish members walked out in protest. The blogger isn’t worried though. “The consequences of these elections will be enormous, and it would be foolhardy to rush into them with half-baked, politically controversial rules simply to meet an artificial deadline.”
However Eric Martin at American Footprints isn’t optimistic and believes Lynch misreads the context surrounding the law. “Various groups of Iraqis are battling to determine the political future of their country, to dictate their roles in it, to determine the level of foreign occupation/involvement, and to redress crimes and injustices both recent and historical. How does more time to discuss the various positions/demands undo that?”
Posted in Elections, Iraq | Comment »
Timetables….
July 15th, 2008 by Sarah
Tom Hayden in The Nation addresses the recent debate over some sort of timetable for U.S. withdrawal in Iraq. Hayden suggests Washington’s refusal to agree to a timetable amounts to a “crisis of democracy” because its position is contrary to majorities in both Iraq and the United States.
However, Hayden notes that Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki is using the timetable issue to “curry favor voters,” while attempting undermine Sadrists because of fears that the movement will gain support in the upcoming Iraqi provincial elections.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egyptian Politics
July 7th, 2008 by Sarah
Almasry Alyoum reports on an Egyptian opinion poll, where a majority claim that the Egyptian government ignores the country’s economic problems, corruption, deviation, and crime. A significant percentage found the People’s Assembly to be ineffective and that the government is either unfair or despotic.
Meanwhile, RearVision (Australia) hosts an interesting interview with Tariq Ramadan, Gilles Kepel, Joshua Stacher and Matthias Küntzel on the history of the Muslim Brotherhood, where it came from, why it has been banned for the past 50 years, and what it stands for today.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties, Publications | Comment »
State of Democracy in Iraq
July 7th, 2008 by Sarah
In light of the July 4th holiday, Dr. iRack at Abu Muqawama reviews the state of democracy in Iraq by looking at the status of election laws, possible postponement of provincial elections, recent government crackdown on Sadrists, and a prohibition on campaigning in Mosques. Dr. iRack predicts that the escalating political conflict will intensify over the next few months.
Posted in Elections, Iraq | Comment »
Juan Cole on Iraq
July 2nd, 2008 by Sarah
Today, Juan Cole at Informed Comment gives readers an update on the Sadr Movement’s plans for an elite corp within the Madhi army and possible postponement of provincial elections in Iraq due to some foot-dragging by Iraqi political parties.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Military | Comment »
Islamism Region-Wide
June 20th, 2008 by Amanda
The American Spectator analyzes the conflict between Turkish secularists and AKP whom it contends is attempting to topple the established secularist state through its imposition of laws that are allegedly Islamist. The piece points to the constitutional courts overturning on June 5th of the AKP’s decision to permit the wearing of headscarves in Turkey’s public universities.
Khalil el-Anani, a resident Egyptian scholar at the Brookings Institution, examines the increasing spread of the Salafism in the Arab World, citing Kuwait’s May elections in which the group won a majority of Parliamentary seats. He asserts that “the Salafist trend has widened its appeal to the Arab public” and is concerned that the “ascendance of conservative Salafis would polarise the Arab world.” At Abu Aardvark, Marc Lynch comments on the possibly extremist affect the group is having on Yemeni politics as well.
The Middle East Strategy at Harvard has an interesting take on the “Islamic Intesification” of the Sunni Baluch of southeastern Iran.
Posted in Elections, Iran, Islamist movements, Kuwait, Turkey | Comment »
POMED Notes: Wilson Center: The Impact of Electoral Trends on Iran’s Security Policies
June 19th, 2008 by Sarah
This afternoon, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars’ Middle East Program and cothe Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University invited Dr. Ali Ansari and Dr. Suzanne Maloney to discuss Iran’s internal political trends and their implications both within the state and in regard to its foreign policy. Both speakers agreed that strong U.S. rhetoric only serves to strengthen Iranian support for Ahmedinejad.
The event was moderated by Dr. Judith Yaphe, Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: Reform in Saudi Arabia
June 18th, 2008 by Sarah
The Middle East Institute invited Usamah al-Kurdi to discuss the status of political, economic, and women’s reform in Saudi Arabia. Since 2001, Al-Kurdi has served as a member of the Majlis Al-Shura Consultative Council of Saudi Arabia. Al-Kurdi argued that U.S. foreign policy can best contribute to the country’s reform by using a “hands off” approach. MEI’s Vice President Dr. Michael Ryan introduced the speaker.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Journalism, Reform, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
POMED Notes: Examining the Year Ahead on the Israeli-Palestinian Front
June 16th, 2008 by Sarah
The New America Foundation invited Mustafa Barghouti, Daniel Levy, and Aaron David Miller to discuss where Israeli-Palestinian relations are now and what we can anticipate in the next six months. Mustafa Barghouti is a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and former Presidential candidate. Daniel Levy is the Director of the Middle East Policy Initiative at the New America Foundation and Prospects for Peace Initiative at the Century Foundation. He is a former Senior Policy Adviser in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office. Aaron David Miller served under six Secretaries of State, most recently as senior adviser on Arab-Israeli negotiations. Introductions were made by Patrick Doherty, Deputy Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Hamas, Israel, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Latest On Al-Sadr
June 16th, 2008 by Sarah
Amit Paley and Saad Sarhan reported this weekend in the Washington Post that Moqtada al-Sadr’s movement will not participate in Iraq’s provincial elections. The day before al-Sadr formed a new paramilitary group to fight U.S. troops. At Abu Muqawawa, Dr. iRack suggests this either means that al-Sadr is weakened (by not participating in elections, he spares himself the embarrassment of losses) or it is part of a strategy to remove himself from any affiliation with the Maliki government. The movement will, however, support Sadrist candidates running under a different party name.
Posted in Elections, Iraq | Comment »
A Timely Charge of Corruption?
June 11th, 2008 by Sarah
Mahbubeh Niknahad at Rooz reports that Abbas Palizdar, a member of Iran’s Majlis Investigative Committee, has accused the country’s judiciary, senior clerics, and Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani of corruption. Rafsanjani is a powerful and relatively moderate conservative cleric widely viewed as a rival to President Ahmadinejad.
Brian Ulrich at American Footprints questions whether this will effect Ahmedinejad’s 2009 reelection bid.
Babylon and Beyond reports that some are question whether this is a timely attempt by Ahmedinejad to weaken his rivals.
Posted in Elections, Iran | Comment »
