On the Current Balance of Power in the Middle East
October 15th, 2008 by Tariq
Tamara Cofman Wittes at Harvard’s Middle East Strategy has an article entitled “Our shaky coalition, and how to save it.” In it, she describes two forces vying for control of the region. On the one hand there are those who are dissatisfied with the status quo (e.g., Iran, Syria, HAMAS, Hezbollah), and those interested in preserving the current balance of power (all major Arab states, Israel, and the U.S.). After highlighting the increasing friction between these two groups, she highlights three major points aimed at easing the tension.
Posted in Diplomacy, Mideast Peace Plan, US foreign policy | Comment »
News from Iran and Afghanistan
October 14th, 2008 by Tariq
On the heels of an unsuccessful Taliban assault on the provincial capitol Lashkar Gah leaving 62 militants dead, an editorial in the Financial Times says the war in Afghanistan is militarily unwinnable, and NATO will have no choice but to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
On neighboring Iran, the Washington Post reports that Tehran is hinting that it would respond favorably to the opening of a U.S. interests section in the capitol, the first step in resuming diplomatic relations severed since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, but is frustrated at American ambiguity on the issue and continued talk of sanctions against the regime. Otherwise, the Washington Times shows Iranians eagerly watching the U.S. election, while simultaneously considering their own as moderate Mohammed Khatami has made his own hints at running against Ahmedinejad next year.
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Election 08, Elections, Iran, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: A Grand Bargain with Iran
October 7th, 2008 by Jason
This afternoon the New America Foundation hosted Flynt Leverett, former Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the NSC; and Hillary Mann Leverett, former Director for Iran and Persian Gulf Affairs at the NSC, to discuss the prospects of a comprehensive diplomatic rapprochement with Iran. The event was moderated by Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at NAF.
Flynt Leverett noted that the strategy toward Iran for the last thirty years has failed under any definition. He said a fundamental change in policy is needed in which the U.S. places all major bilateral differences with Iran on the table and resolves them as a package.
Hillary Mann Leverett stressed the rationality and realism undergirding Iranian foreign policy. She noted the twenty-year history of instances of tactical cooperation between the U.S. and Iran. She said the need for a comprehensive reorientation supersedes concerns for human rights and democracy within Iran. The hope is that such issues can be revisited only after a robust national security pact is secured.
For full POMED notes, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
Arab Regimes Restoring Ties With Baghdad
October 7th, 2008 by Jason
Recent events signal that Arab nations are beginning to reconcile with the Maliki government. Since April, Bahrain, Jordan, and the UAE have named ambassadors to Baghdad. Over the weekend Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit made a surprise visit to Iraq, the first such visit since 1990. And yesterday, the Arab League dispatched an ambassador to Baghdad.
Perhaps alluding to the waning American footprint, the Arab League diplomat said, “We need a more active Arab role in Iraq.”
Posted in Arab League, Diplomacy, Egypt, Iraq | Comment »
No Diplomatic Outpost in Iran
October 6th, 2008 by Sarah
According to Laura Rozen at War and Piece, the Bush administration has “shelved plans to set up a diplomatic outpost in Iran, in part over fears it could affect the U.S. presidential race or be interpreted as political meddling.” During the summer, POMED covered the debate about opening an U.S. Interests Section in Iran.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Saudis Take A Direct Role In Afghanistan
October 6th, 2008 by Sarah
A shout-out to Juan Cole for brining our attention to this bit of news: The King of Saudi Arabia recently hosted talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in late September. This marks “a significant departure by the Saudi leadership to take a direct role in Afghanistan, hosting some delegates who have until recently been their enemies.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism | Comment »
POMED Notes: Public Diplomacy and the War of Ideas
October 1st, 2008 by Jason
Yesterday afternoon the Institute for Middle East Studies and the Institute for Global Communications and Public Diplomacy hosted a discussion featuring Hady Amr, Director of the Brookings Doha Center; Michael Doran, Dep. Asst. Sec. of Defense for Support to Public Diplomacy; and Kristin Lord, Fellow at the Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Program. The event was moderated by Marc Lynch, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at GWU.
Kristin Lord said that every disparate U.S. national security goal can be buttressed by an effective public diplomacy strategy. Hady Amr stressed that we must engage with conservative voices in the Middle East, rather than just the liberal elite. He called for the creation of an independent non-profit organization that will allow a wall of separation between strict policy advocacy and the fostering of relationships and bridge-building. Michael Doran said we must create the bureaucratic institutions needed to empower third-party partners to form and disseminate U.S. messages.
For full POMED notes on the event, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, US foreign policy | 2 Comments »
Barrels and Barrels of Leverage with Iran
September 29th, 2008 by Jason
A companion piece to the post below, Meir Javedanfar in Pajamas Media writes of the leverage that may soon be falling into the laps of any potential interlocutor with Iran. Even though Iran’s oil and gas income rose 31% this year, the economy remains on the brink and inflation is highest it’s ever been post-revolution. With oil prices now falling, Javendanfar writes that the regime is facing a “nightmare scenario” just 10 months away from the presidential elections. He quotes the Iranian oil minister admitting that “$100 a barrel was the lowest appropriate price” that they could handle (oil is $103 as of this writing). Gas-rationing and reduced energy subsidies will become an increasingly painful way of life for the already-frustrated masses.
Javendanfar also points out the undeniable historical link between the price of oil and the willingness of the Iranian regime to play ball with the West.
Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, Iran, Oil, US foreign policy | 1 Comment »
The Iranian Minefield
September 29th, 2008 by Jason
In the WSJ, Michael Oren and Seth Robinson weigh the perils of negotiating with Iran. They write that to be credible, any talks must include the cessation of uranium enrichment and an end to support for terrorism. However, they concede that no combination of U.S. concessions and incentives is likely to induce Iran to change its policies. And the cost of engagement is high:
“Rather than improving U.S.-Iranian relations and enhancing Middle East stability, any American offer to dialogue with Iran is liable to be interpreted as a sign of American weakness, and not only in Tehran. Public opinion throughout the area will conclude that America has at last surrendered to the reality of Iranian rule. The damage to America’s regional, if not global, influence may prove irreversible.”
To avoid this, negotiations must be “accompanied by intensified sanctions and a credible military threat.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | 2 Comments »
Ahmedinejad’s History Lesson
September 26th, 2008 by Amanda
Before Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad spoke at the UN General Assembly this week, he fielded a number of questions from “The American Peace Movement,” as reported by The Nation. The inquiries ranged from human rights to Iran’s relationship with Israel, but many focused on the issue of alleged nuclear weapons development. He voiced a willingness to participate in diologue with the United States, but drew history to the fore by when he ridiculed the United States, the UK, France and Canada for cooperating with the pre-1979 regime of the Shah on nuclear technology.” The Nation quoted him as saying that “when there were no elections in Iran, they wanted us to be a nuclear power. As soon as there were elections, they didn’t want us to be a nuclear power.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: An American Strategy for the New Era
September 26th, 2008 by Jason
Yesterday afternoon the Wilson Center hosted Stephen Van Evera, Robert Kagan, Melvyn Leffler, and Jeffrey Legro to discuss the new anthology, To Lead the World: American Strategy After the Bush Doctrine. The event was moderated by Robert Litwak, Director of International Security Studies at the Wilson Center.
Melvyn Leffler stressed the importance of creating a hierarchy of national security threats and challenges, as the solutions all have wildly divergent resource and strategy implications.
Stephen Van Evera believes the traditional era of great-power competition is over due to the levelling effect of the nuclear threat. He calls for the formation of a global concert of great nations to contain the threat of terrorism and WMD proliferation, as well as to manage common challenges such as energy and climate change.
Robert Kagan disagreed, and said each power will look at each discrete world problem and calculate its best move, irrespective of any appeal to our common shared interests. He noted that national tactics are once again governed by revanchist ambition, pride, resentment, and jealousy, and the U.S. cannot convince other great powers that what is good for America is good for the world.
For full POMED notes on this event, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Military, Multilateralism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: Brookings: Sen. Brownback and Rep. Smith on Public Diplomacy
September 24th, 2008 by Jason
Yesterday afternoon the Brookings Institution hosted Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) and Representative Adam Smith (D-Wash.) for a discussion on the future of U.S. public diplomacy and strategic communication. Also on the panel was Thomas Dyne, president of Radio Free Europe. The event was moderated by Kristen Lord, Brookings Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program.
Sen. Brownback discussed his proposed legislation which would create a National Center for Strategic Communications. He said the current U.S. public diplomacy strategy is not working, and a new cohesive organization is needed with leadership that reports directly to the president.
Rep. Smith agreed that a basic reworking of our diplomacy apparatus is needed, and stressed the importance of targeted messaging, specifically tailored to local cultures and communication habits. He also discussed the importance of effective development, and noted that America’s image is greatly enhanced when it is seen as directly and tangibly helping foreign populations.
For full POMED notes on the event, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Legislation, Public Opinion, US foreign policy | Comment »
A Grand Diplomatic Bargain with Iran
September 23rd, 2008 by Jason
An editorial in the New York Times calls for a “game-changing diplomatic initiative” to break the impasse over Iran’s nuclear program. They reject the military option, and recommend a more pursuasive set of punishments and incentives. There should be a “credible U.S. offer of improved relations and security guarantees if Tehran abandons its nuclear ambitions.”
They note that Secretary Rice will likely fail in her current last-ditch Mideast peacemaking turn, and her real legacy could be putting Iran to the test with offers of a grand and serious diplomatic bargain.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
Update: UANI
September 22nd, 2008 by Jason
Just learned that United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has a sleek new website. Its mission statement says it is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that will include “human rights and humanitarian groups, the labor movement, political advocacy and grassroots organizations, representatives of diverse ethnicities, faith communities, political and social affiliations.” All are “united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.”
In addition to those named below, its leadership includes Fouad Ajami, Les Gelb, and Middle East hearts-and-minds expert Karen Hughes.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Fate of Iranian Dissidents in Iraq
September 18th, 2008 by Jason
The Christian Science Monitor has an interesting piece on the People’s Mujahideen of Iran (PMOI), a dissident group that used to mount attacks on the Tehran regime from inside Saddam’s Iraq. Since Saddam’s toppling, the group has been disarmed and placed under the protection of U.S. forces. With the impending U.S. withdrawal, the group’s fate is in question.
The report notes that Iran is pressing for the former fighters to be returned to Iran, where they will no doubt face imprisonment and torture. The group has substantial support in the U.S. Congress. Yet not handing the dissidents over may hinder the prospects for any future detente in U.S.-Iran relations.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Iraq, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iran: The Folly of Sanctions and a Call for Dialogue
September 18th, 2008 by Jason
The Boston Globe reports that the U.S. has successfully pressured the UAE to crack down on Iranian trade and bank activity there. The UAE is Iran’s largest trading partner and home to some 450,000 Iranian citizens.
Though once again proving the phrase “targeted sanctions” an oxymoron, the report notes that “while aimed at crippling Iranian banks and corporations connected to the regime, the policy also punishes small businesses owned by individual Iranians who have no political connections and are often at odds with their government.”
Noting the failure of sanctions, Ed Djerejian in the Washington Times calls for comprehensive U.S. talks with Iran. He argues for “putting the Iranian regime to the test by offering a broad strategic dialogue on all the key issues between us.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, UAE, US foreign policy | Comment »
Five Former Secretaries of State: “Talk to Iran”
September 16th, 2008 by Jason
Secretaries Madeleine Albright, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Henry Kissinger, and Colin Powell all voiced their support for talks with Iran yesterday at a forum at George Washington University. All agreed that the U.S. gains nothing by not engaging Iran. In a representative comment, Colin Powell noted, “[W]e should start to talk to them and not wait till later. What are we afraid of?”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: Senator Feingold at Georgetown
September 15th, 2008 by Jason
This morning, the Georgetown University Mortara Center for International Studies hosted U.S. Senator Russell Feingold (D-WI) to deliver the 2008 Goldman Sachs Distinguished Lecture. His speech was titled “Promoting Democracy, Development and Diplomacy: U.S. Interests and Values.”
Senator Feingold argued that promotion of democracy and human rights aligns with the United States’ core national values, its image, and its aspirations. He said that political reform and rule of law are essential to the long-term stability of free societies, and U.S. national security depends upon it.
He also called for a strengthening of the U.S.’s civilian resource capability, and a de-emphasis on the military as a stand-in for long-term development strategy.
For full POMED notes on the event, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Human Rights, US foreign policy | Comment »
Stability vs. Democracy: Sec. Rice in North Africa
September 9th, 2008 by Jason
Secretary Rice continued her tour of North Africa with visits to Algeria and Tunisia. Her meetings with President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and President Zine Abidine Ben Ali, respectively, focused on counterterrorism cooperation. Though she said she raised the issue of democratic reform in private meetings. “We talked about internal matters here in Tunisia and about the course of reform,” Rice said. “We have been very clear that we would hope that Tunisia would do more.”
In Algeria, Rice called President Bouteflika “truly one of the wise men” of the region. No word on who else makes the secretary’s “wise men” short list.
Bret Stephens in the WSJ argues that Rice’s rapprochment with Libya represents the final “triumph of the stability agenda over the freedom one.”
Posted in Algeria, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Libya, Tunisia | Comment »
Turkey’s Historic Visit to Armenia
September 8th, 2008 by Sarah
After Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian invited Turkish President Abdullah Gul to make a historic visit to Yerevan, both leaders watched an international soccer match between their national teams and met beforehand in a closed-door session. This marked the first visit to Armenia by a Turkish head of state since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Brian Ulrich at American Footprints questions whether the visit will “truly lead to an end to the lack of diplomatic relations between the two countries.” Ulrich suggests that “the crisis in South Ossetia is probably a factor influencing decision-making” as “Armenia is, right now, Russia’s closest ally in the Caucasus” and opines that Armenian officials may fear that Russia’s newfound position closer to the Armenian border “may herald a time when Russia might seek to intervene directly in its affairs. If that happens, Turkey will be an important country to have relations with in the interest of playing one large power against another.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Turkey | Comment »
