Raed Refai at Babylon and Beyondreports on a breakthrough for both women and the judiciary in the UAE: “judicial authorities in the United Arab Emirates this week appointed a woman to conduct Muslim marriages for the first time in the region, where women are often relegated to a secondary role in society.”
For all those in the Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan fan club (and if you read this blog you probably are), just passing along this White House statement announcing that the Sheikh–who is the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and next in line for the UAE presidency–will be President Bush’s guest at Camp David next week. “The President looks forward to discussing with the Crown Prince the strong bilateral relationship between the United States and the UAE, stability in the Gulf, and a range of regional issues.”
MESH has begun the inevitable task of assessing “The Bush Legacy.” Michael Young, Raymond Tanter, and Philip Carl Salzman weigh in, and discuss the issue over the vast terrain of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Lebanon–not surprisingly, without consensus.
Unmentioned was Bush’s Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative (BMENA), but an editorial in UAE’s The National highlighting the conclusion of the Forum of the Future event in Dubai fills the gap, offering, “the initiative has never really had the impact or support that it should have, mostly due to its association with Mr Bush. Regional governments remain wary of the intentions behind US involvement.” For more on those intentions, and a general overview of the forum, watch Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Kent Patton in this video interview.
Several articles appeared recently on peace and reconciliation efforts around the world. The Christian Science Monitor has three: first, on Afghanistan’s emerging anti-war movement; second, Army Major General Mark Hertling plays diplomat along the Kurdish-Arab fault line in Iraq; and third, how bringing Omar al-Bashir to justice is the only way for peace in Sudan.
Aside from the Saudi efforts highlighted yesterday, other such examples include a global peace initiative called the “Triangle of Peace” undertaken by Sheikh Nahyan bin Zayed al-Nahyan of the U.A.E., described as “a blue-print for the development of sustainable communities, through construction, cultural interaction, sound financial planning, improving trade relationships and generating local and global interaction to promote a better global community.” And Haaretz reports that Israel is considering a non-aggression treaty with Lebanon.
Michael Allen at Democracy’s Digest has an excellent summary of sentiments expressed at Dubai’s Forum for the Future, but the impressive skyline of the boom town has done nothing to stem growing pessimism at prospects for democratic reform in the region.
“I have only bad news regarding democratic reform in the region,” said Hafez Abu Seada, the secretary general of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights. “Political parties work in a very complex environment, where they are subject to imprisonment and the denial of civil liberties. …. there is no framework to give any rights to political parties and movements.”
Similarly, via Harvard’s Middle East Strategy, J. Scott Carpentermuses about the future of another one of Bush’s Middle East programs–The Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative–after Condoleezza Rice decided not to attend the aforementioned Forum of the Future event.
The Boston Globe reports that the U.S. has successfully pressured the UAE to crack down on Iranian trade and bank activity there. The UAE is Iran’s largest trading partner and home to some 450,000 Iranian citizens.
Though once again proving the phrase “targeted sanctions” an oxymoron, the report notes that “while aimed at crippling Iranian banks and corporations connected to the regime, the policy also punishes small businesses owned by individual Iranians who have no political connections and are often at odds with their government.”
Noting the failure of sanctions, Ed Djerejian in the Washington Times calls for comprehensive U.S. talks with Iran. He argues for “putting the Iranian regime to the test by offering a broad strategic dialogue on all the key issues between us.”
Al-Watan (via Ali Eteraz) discusses a recent move by the Education Minister of the United Arab Emirates to lessen the impact of Islamists in the education system. The recent decision transfers Emirati Islamists from the Emirates Reform Society to other ministries where they will not have contact with children. The move hopes to lessen the ability of Islamists to indoctrinate children with radical views and promote sectarianism.
Elena McGovern of the Stimson Center examines labor issues in the United Arab Emirates, concluding that the lack of a skilled domestic workforce and a significant dependence on cheap foreign labor has left the government unable to handle the effects of economic modernization and threatens to effect the emirate’s image as a source of stability in a region of chaos. Headed north, the Daily Star reports on a political showdown between the Emir of Kuwait and the newly-elected parliament over cabinet appointments.
In the wake of Kuwait’s Parliamentary elections held last week, The Economist argues that the nation’s efforts toward democratic reform are slowing down democratic reform in the region, not facilitating it. Even though “Kuwait has the strongest and noisiest parliament among the Arab monarchies of the Gulf,” the article claims that “few of their ruling families and friends think the price of democracy is worth paying.” And while the elections have turned over more seats to Islamists who are “just as likely to take on the government” as more secular factions, their long-term viability in the face of the monarchical bulwark is questionable.
Other Gulf countries, such as Qatar and UAE that resemble Kuwait’s societal structure have not yet constructed an election process for Parliamentary members. Despite Kuwait’s problems, however, women participate more directly in government than neighboring states like Saudi Arabia.
UPDATE: For analysis on Kuwait’s party participation, read commentary by Nathan Brown at Abu Aardvark.
Shibley Telhami of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution presented his most recent polling research entitled “Views from the Middle East: Public Opnion in the Arab World” conducted by the University of Maryland and Zogby International covering public opinion in six Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and UAE). Poll questions included topics such as Lebanese Politics, the Arab-Israeli conflict, views of the United States and its efforts to spread democracy in the Middle East.
At Abu Aardvark, Marc Lynchreacts to the results of a new University of Maryland/Zogby International poll of public opinion in six Arab countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates). The results included the fact that 65% of those surveyed said, ”I don’t believe that promoting democracy is a real American objective.” Lynch is discouraged by the small number of Arabs who would prefer to live in the United States and what appears to be a waning interest in US politics and declining belief that electoral results could bring policy changes.
Be sure to check out the April issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This month’s edition features a fascinating interview with three key female political actors from the Gulf on women’s political participation: Rola Dashti (Kuwait), Fatin Bundagi (Saudi Arabia), and Munira Fakhro (Bahrain).
Also included are a critical look at next week’s municipal elections in Egypt by Khalil al-Anani, an examination of the fairness of Morocco’s electoral system by Michael Meyer-Resende, and an article on President Bush’s budget request for fiscal year 2009 and what it means for democracy in the Arab world, by POMED’s Stephen McInerney.
Their news roundup also covers many fascinating developments such as the opening of the first church in Qatar, a constitutional amendment in Tunisia that should make it possible for more candidates to run in the presidential election next year, and labor unrest in the UAE.
Simeon Kerr in the Financial Times reports that the United Arab Emirates have approved funds for the development of a nuclear energy program. This project will be separate from the Gulf Cooperation Council’s plans to have a joint program. The GCC has considered pursuing a multinational approach to developing nuclear program, which may include Iran.
At Abu Aardvark, Marc Lynch alsodiscusses the rise of nuclear programs in the Gulf. He finds American support for these programs inconsistent with foreign policy. “Seriously, does anyone else find the GCC’s rush to acquire “peaceful nuclear energy programs” and the West’s seeming enthusiasm for the prospect a bit odd?”
In The Wall Street Journal, Yousef al-Otaiba supports Abu Dhabi’s investment behavior in the global markets, claiming that the United Arab Emirates does not intend to use economic tools for a political agenda. The article hopes that the United States continues to recognize the Arab state as a solid trade partner. “It is important to be absolutely clear that the Abu Dhabi government has never and will never use its investment organizations or individual investments as a foreign-policy tool.”
Described as a “blow to reform in the UAE,” The Economistdiscusses a cabinet reshuffle that changed the role of Sheikha Lubna al-Qasimi, a member of the ruling family of Sharjah who had worked hard on changing the law governing companies established in the UAE, and outgoing labour minister Ali al-Kaabi, known for his aggressive pursuing of “emiratisation” policies.
Far from meeting with Saudi political activists or dissidents, Michael Hirsh at Newsweek highlights President Bush’s trip to Saudi Arabia as one that caters more to the growing power of “petro-Islam” than to democracy. “Bush was right when he said in his second inaugural address, ‘The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands.’ If only he had taken himself seriously on this trip.”
In an International Herald Tribune editorial, Bush is urged to act beyond rhetoric to deliver concrete peace deals between Israelis and Palestinians. Besides what is termed as the one deliverable of naming Lieutenant General William Fraser as mediator of previous agreements, the article implores the administration to provide “more economic and political support for Abbas” and “find ways to reach out to Israel.” Meanwhile, Yoel Marcus at Haaretz states that while Bush “didn’t let us forget for a minute that while this may be his last year in office, his feathers have not been plucked.”
Bush’s visit to the United Arab Emirates is discussed at The Daily Kos, specifically Bush’s “bizarre description of the Emirates – an oligarchy where government officials are appointed rather than elected - as a model society for others to emulate.” At the NRO Corner, Michael Rubinquestions White House credibility on democracy, citing inaction on behalf of “Libya’s most famous political prisoner,” Fathi Eljahmi.
In an anticipated speech in Abu Dhabi, President George W. Bush outlined his policy for the Middle East. Daniel Dombey and Simeon Kerr of the Financial Times claim that Bush veered from advocating democratic reforms in order to emphasize the threat of Iran. “His speech fell short of the bold statements of his second inaugural address, when he promised to ‘seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.’”
At The Huffington Post, Amb. Marc Ginsberg criticizes Bush’s speech for patronizing the people of the Middle East without actually considering their interests. “It will take a new president with the credibility of not being this president, to restore some faith and confidence in America’s word in the Middle East.”
In a Daily Star op-ed, Ammar Abdulhamid defends Bush’s prioritization of spreading democracy and freedom to the world. “America’s ‘freedom agenda’ is not the cause of its current travails in the Middle East.”
In an article in this month’s Foreign Policy, Anders Aslund argues that the expansion of autocratic states’ “sovereign wealth funds” harms their own citizens more than they harm the financial interests of Western competitors.
Brian Ulrich, at American Footprints, discusses problems for foreign workers stemming from abuses in the sponsorship system in Gulf countries, particularly in the UAE. He calls the labor policies disgraceful and argues that “this is an area where the United States can and should use our influence to push for reform.”
Yesterday, Project on Middle East Democracy and Freedom House presented a panel of speakers addressing the issue of reform in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states. Thomas Melia, Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House and former Director of Middle East Programs at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, and Ali Alyami, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia, spoke on reform in Saudi Arabia. David Mikosz, Associate Director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management at the American University in Washington, D.C., and Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke about reform in the other Gulf states.
The overall consensus of the panel was that Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are among the least free in the world and the minimal reforms that have taken place are largely symbolic. However, there is some hope that democracy could develop gradually though accretion of power by parliaments or other consultative bodies. The panel also encouraged US pressure on the Gulf states to support reforms.
Event Details
Date: November 1, 2007 2:30pm
Panelists
Thomas Melia, Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House
Ali Alyami, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia
David Mikosz, Associate Director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management at the American University
Nathan Brown, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator:
Stephen McInerney, POMED’s Director of Advocacy
Downloads
Click here to read POMED’s full notes on this event.
Click here to watch a video transcript of this event on fora.tv or use the embedded player below.
