Signaling New Changes in the Region
August 25th, 2008 by Sarah
Rami Khouri in The Daily Star argues that the recent talks between Jordan’s Intelligence and Hamas signal that both sides are “making preliminary moves to adjust to changing circumstances.” Resuming normal relations with Hamas is a dramatic change in Jordan policy and “may also hint at underlying changes in Palestine and in the Hamas-Syrian-Hizbullah-Iran camp.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Jordan, Syria | Comment »
Broad Implications of the Georgian-Russian Conflict
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Itamar Rabinovitch in Haaretz compares the Georgian-Russian conflict with the Syrian-Lebanon situation, and explores its ramifications on the Middle East. “There is less of a chance that the United States and Russia will be cooperating to stop Iran’s nuclear program” and “there is a greater chance that Russia will wage a more ambitious and aggressive policy, including selling advanced weapons systems to Iran and Syria.”
Posted in Iran, Lebanon, Syria | 1 Comment »
A Leap Forward for Lebanon and Syria?
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Rami Khouri in the Daily Star comments on the recent violence in Tripoli, arguing that “the underlying conditions that allow the current political violence to happen have percolated and grown for nearly half a century.” Khouri cites “festering and lawless refugee camps, a weak Arab state, populations that turn to religion when modern statehood does not provide for their basic needs, weak local economies that create masses of impoverished people susceptible to mobilization by demagogic or extremist movements, and direct external interference by Middle Eastern and Western countries.”
The Daily Star reports that violence continued over the weekend, after the two-day visit last week between Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
In regard to the future of Lebanon, Raed Rafei at Babylon and Beyond asks whether this meeting is a sign that Syria has “accepted to recognize Lebanon as an independent and sovereign state?” On one hand, the Syrians refused to demarcate the borders at the Shebaa Farms. However, Syria also promised to officially exchange ambassadors and to investigate the disappearances of hundreds of Lebanese who went missing during Lebanon’s civil war.
Meanwhile, an editorial in Arab News lauds the recent efforts by Syria and Lebanon as “a leap forward.” The editorial claims that “the neighbors must build on this bonhomie for a more promising and peaceful future for their people. They deserve a better tomorrow after all they have been through over the past few decades.”
Posted in Lebanon, Syria | Comment »
Lebanon, Syria to Establish Diplomatic Ties
August 14th, 2008 by Adam
Today’s editorial in the Daily Star sees the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria as a tremendous step forward for Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. The editorial optimistically proclaims, “The deal will not immediately erase all of the tensions that took decades to develop, but it will allow for the immediate opening of a new chapter of full and healthy relations between the two states.”
Also in the Daily Star, Michael Young looks at the implications of yesterday’s deadly bombing in Tripoli that killed 18 people. Young sees a Syrian hand in the violence, hoping it will push Lebanon’s army to confront the Sunni extremists in a bid to politically divide the Sunnis and weaken President Michel Sleiman’s parliamentary majority.
Grandmasta at Arabic Media Shack also has analysis on the bombing in Lebanon.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism, Syria, Terrorism | Comment »
Warring Extremist Ideology
August 11th, 2008 by Sarah
Steven Barnes in the Daily Star examines Antulio Echevarria’s piece on the shift in U.S. policy goals, from “winning the hearts and minds” of Arabs and Muslims worldwide to winning “the war of ideas” against Islamic extremist groups. Echevarria notes “it is essentially impossible to wage an economic war against Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, or to pursue a military strategy of containment, without at the same time harming Muslim states and populations whom we do not want to harm.”
On a similar note, Shlomo Ben-Ami in the Daily Star argues that despite U.S. efforts otherwise, extremists have prevailed in the Middle East, and it is the moderates in the region who must adapt their policies. Ben-Ami notes, however, that “with the defeat of his ideologically inspired foreign policy, Bush has finally decided not to remain blind to the benefits of engaging Iran and perhaps to a lesser extent Syria.” According to the author, this is strategically in America’s best interests as “the two countries hold the keys to Middle East stability.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Military, Syria, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Syrian Intentions
August 5th, 2008 by Adam
Alex & Qifa Nakbi at Syria Comment write on how Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can build up confidence in his intentions so that Israel-Syria peace talks are taken seriously by regional actors and are not undermined. One option would be to gradually implement political reforms so that Assad can lessen his isolation and make himself more palpable of a figure to the West. A second option would be to help push for a simultaneous, yet parallel Israel-Lebanon track. The final option would be for Syria to embrace the Arab Peace Initiative to smooth over relations with Saudi Arabia in order to limit their willingness to act as a spoiler.
Posted in Israel, Lebanon, Mideast Peace Plan, Saudi Arabia, Syria | Comment »
On Olmert’s Resignation
August 1st, 2008 by Sarah
Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he will resign after a new party leader is choosen in September. Daniel Levy at TPM Café outlines what his resignation means to Israeli politics–both inside his party and in general, the Palestinian situation, the Syrian talks, and Iran.
Because Levy does not believe a peace agreement with Syria is feasible, nor prudent, at this time, he recommends that the U.S. start creating a Plan B. “That would mainly consist of two things: (1) is there a way to preserve some of the progress made in negotiations?; (2) how to prevent a further deterioration of the situation on the ground—settlements, closures, security.”
In regard to an Israeli attack on Iran, Levy argues that “if Israel does attack, and I think it is unlikely, it will not be because of political caprice dictated by an outgoing politician as part of some legacy. Israel’s security establishment does not work like that.” Instead, Levy suggests that “the louder the Israeli rhetoric, the more this is about leverage rather than imminent action.
Posted in Iran, Israel, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Is Syria’s Relationship With Iran Compromised?
August 1st, 2008 by Sarah
Bassel Oudat in Al-Ahram Weekly examines Syria’s recent behavior (ie. “talking to Europe, staying out of Lebanon, talking to the Israelis, and generally stressing the pragmatic aspect of its foreign policy”) and adds to the speculation that Syria “is about to ditch its alliance with Iran.”
The Jpost.com staff agree that Syria’s relationship with Iran may be compromised, after Israeli Prime Minister Olmert’s envoys returned from another round of indirect talks with Syria and suggested that a peace agreement with Syria is within reach.
However, Jonathan Spyer in the Jerusalem Post disagrees, arguing that Syria’s talks with Israel is merely aimed at receiving the benefits from “the very act of talking” rather than the talks themselves, and that Syria’s “alliance with Iran seems safe and sound.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Syria | Comment »
POMED Notes: Subcommittee Hearing: Update on the Situation in Lebanon
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs invited Jeffrey Feltman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the U.S. Department of State to discuss the current political situation in Lebanon in light of the recent Doha Agreement. Feltman welcomed the election of President Sulieman and the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Siniora, and reiterated President Bush’s policy of non-engagement with Hizbullah and Syria.
Rep. Gary Ackerman made opening remarks.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Political Parties, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Incentives to Bring Syria Closer to the West
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Andrew Tabler in the Daily Star examines the ambiguous relationship between Syria and Iran, especially in light of indirect talks between Israel and Syria. Tabler argues that improving Syria’s economic woes would allow the U.S. to “help Syria attract much-needed foreign investment, integrate it into the global economy, reduce unemployment and earn the US points with the Syrian people,” thereby giving the country incentives to distance itself from Iran.
Posted in Iran, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Who Wins With the Israel-Hizbullah Swap?
July 17th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in The Daily Star (Lebanon) declares Hizbullah victorious after the prisoner exchange with Israel. Hizbullah is stronger for having prevented Israel from setting the terms of the outcome and Israel is now “more susceptible to the genuine diplomacy that their governments have traditionally disdained.”
An editorial in The Guardian argues that by agreeing to the swap, “Israel has tacitly admitted that its real purpose [of the 2006 war] was not the release of its soldiers, but the dismantlement of Hizbullah’s military infrastructure,” ultimately leaving Hizbullah stronger today than 2 years ago. Above all else, the editorial laments that the exchange “recognises Hizbullah, rather than the Lebanese government, as Israel’s negotiating partner,” reinforcing the idea that violent resistance bears more fruit.
The Times Online editorial suggests that with the swap, Israel has broken its policy of not engaging with terrorists and has perpetuated a cycle of using hostages as bargaining chips. Meanwhile, an editorial in Now Lebanon bluntly asks “Was it worth it?”
Michael Young in The Daily Star argues that the combination of the recent swap, which bolstered Hizbullah and weakened Prime Minister Siniora, the collapse of Resolution 1701, and a lack of U.S. involvement, means that “the independence intifada is over and Syria has entered a new phase in its effort to re-create in Lebanon what it was made to surrender in 2005.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Military, Syria | Comment »
The U.S. and the Israel-Syria Talks
July 15th, 2008 by Adam
Over at Syria Comment, they have posted excerpts of a position paper written by several prominent academics and diplomats about the U.S. role in Israel-Syria negotiations. The paper contends that the U.S. facilitate, and if necessary, join the Israel-Syria talks as without American assistance it might not be possible for painful concessions to be made on either side. However, they state that Syria must not assume that a new U.S. administration will necessarily embrace talks, as without Syrian accommodation on Lebanon and Iraq, it is unlikely the U.S. will be willing to spend the political capital necessary to help Syria recover its lost territory.
Posted in Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Syria’s Diplomatic Move
July 14th, 2008 by Sarah
Hussein Shariatmadari warns Syria of the negative impact that peace with Israel will have on relations with Tehran.
Meanwhile, Tony Barber in the Financial Times noted that the inaugural session of the Mediterranean Union was the first time an Israeli and a Syrian leader had been seated in the same room.
At the session, Syria announced that it would open an embassy in Beirut and Lebanon an embassy in Damascus for the first time since Lebanese independence in 1943. “Such a step would imply Syrian acceptance of the sovereignty of Lebanon.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Syria | Comment »
Washington Needs Guidance
July 11th, 2008 by Amanda
The AFP reports that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad acknowledges the weight that US foreign policy decisions wield in the Middle East, but asserts that “Washington does not understand the region and needs guidance.” Al-Assad is prepared to meet French President Nicholas Sarkozy tomorrow. As the Syrian-French relationship moves in an increasingly positive direction, the Syrian leader believes that France ‘may be able to help the US understand the region better.’
Posted in Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Syrian Prison Riot
July 10th, 2008 by Adam
The Christian Science Monitor reports on a recent prison riot in Syria’s Sedneya prison that was quelled, and has remained shrouded in secrecy due to the suspicion of human rights abuses, as well as numerous deaths and injuries. Reportedly, Sedneya holds 10,000 political prisoners, and due to a media blackout accounts vary wildly about what occurred. The recent incident comes at an inopportune time for the Assad regime as, “The rioting and the extreme secrecy with which the government has handled it come at a time when more American and European politicians and observers are calling for greater engagement with Syria.”
Posted in Human Rights, Syria | Comment »
No Peace Deals with Bush in Office
July 9th, 2008 by Sarah
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says his country is unlikely to make peace with Israel while George Bush remains in office. “Frankly, we do not think that the current American administration is capable of making peace. It doesn’t have either the will or the vision and it only has a few months left.”
Israel and Syria have already outlined an agenda for direct talks, if and when they occur, with Turkey acting as moderator.
Posted in Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Syria, Turkey | Comment »
Shrewd Syrians
July 8th, 2008 by Adam
Oliver Guitta in the Middle East Times argues Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is actually “an astute strategist, playing his cards quite well,” contrary to most analysts who describe Assad as “a weak pawn.” Because he has been engaging with European nations while receiving support from Iran, Guitta predicts that Assad “is going to have to decide in the next few months which camp he really belongs to: the West’s or Iran’s.”
On a similar note, the Financial Times reports on Syria’s eastward economic shift. Fears of Western isolation has forced Syria to diversify its economic ties and increase trade with China, India, Russia, and Turkey. By looking eastward Syria hopes to attract foreign investment, offset its losses from sanctions, and improve its regional and international reputation.
Posted in Diplomacy, Syria | Comment »
Arresting Bloggers
July 2nd, 2008 by Sarah
Syria Comment reports that Syria has arrested at least 5 bloggers as “an additional attempt to intimidate and silence dissidents.” Reporters Without Borders claims this makes Syria “the Arab world’s most repressive country towards people who post news and information online.”
Posted in Arab media, Freedom, Journalism, Syria | Comment »
Engagement in the Middle East
June 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Daniel Levy at Prospects for Peace asks the $64,000 question of whether recent rocket fire will lead to an escalation between Hamas and Israel and to an end to the cease-fire.
Sameer Lalwani notes at the Washington Note the pressures on both sides to “play spoiler in order to preempt a resolution that leaves them weakened or excluded from power.”
However, regardless of how successful Israel’s engagement with either Syria and Hamas will ultimately be, a New York Times editorial credits Israel for its latest diplomatic moves. “With its security and even survival at stake, it would have been irresponsible to continue to let Washington’s ideological blinders constrain Israeli diplomacy.”
Meanwhile, Mona Yacoubian and Scott Lasensky at The Council on Foreign Relations argue that the U.S. should change its policy toward Syria to include conditional engagement in order to further U.S. interests of stability in Iraq and Lebanon, promoting peace and stability between Israel and its Arab neighbors, and heading off Iranian influence.
Posted in Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Palestine, Syria | Comment »
The Turn in Israeli Policy
June 24th, 2008 by Adam
Israel’s recent regional undertakings have been very effective diplomatic gambits, according to Marc Ginsberg at Huffington Post. “Israel has secretly accomplished more diplomatically in the past few months with its adversaries than anything that Condi Rice could have or would have brokered in years — a glaring testament to the ever-shrinking influence of the U.S. in the region…”
On the other hand, Martin Peretz, sees these negotiations as doomed to fail. Peretz asserts that Israel’s negotiations with Syria are a gift and that they are unlikely to produce anything tangible for Israel’s security situation. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire will also have negative consequences in that it emboldens Hamas while marginalizing Fatah in the West Bank.
Posted in Hamas, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, Syria | Comment »
