George Abraham of Al Jazeera (English) writes an interesting article regarding Qatar’s rise as a serious diplomatic player in the Middle East. According to the article, Qatar has been able to find a distinctive niche due to its economic power, its strategic alliance with the U.S., and a willingness to engage all regional actors. These factors, as well as an understanding of popular regional movements, have allowed tiny Qatar to diplomatically punch above its weight.
The Economist has an interesting article about Qatar’s transformation from underdeveloped backwater to a wealthy state with growing influence. Qatar has wisely used its oil wealth to pursue an astute foreign policy, and has become a diplomatic player in the region. Its engagement with America’s regional allies and rejectionist states, such as Syria and Iran has allowed Qatar to flex its diplomatic muscle in Yemen and Lebanon.
Just over a week ago Lebanon witnessed violence unseen since the civil war as Hizbullah took control of many parts of the capital. To end the stalemate, both the Siniora government and Shiite leader Hassan Nasrallah met for peace talks in Doha, Qatar, upon which they reached an agreement. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace provides intriguing analysis on the political deal in Lebanon in a teleconference with Marina Ottaway and Paul Salem.
Four days after the factions made a settlement, the election of President Michel Suleiman (something that is widely seen as a victory for Hizbullah) brought a sense of relief for most Lebanese who welcome the filling of the presidential post as a considerable step forward in the creating peace in the country. The Council On Foreign Relations engaged in the topic by interviewing Michael Young at The Daily Star. Although Young does not necessarily see the compromise in Qatar as a win for Hizbullah, he posits that Sunday’s election “will inevitably lead to a new alignment of political parties by next year.”
In a speech at the Presidential swearing in ceremony on Sunday, Nasrallah affirmed his group would not abuse its newfound gains of government control, including its recent acquisition in Doha of the right to veto any cabinet decision. The developments in Lebanon have incited a fury of commentary on the blogosphere and opinion pages.
While Nicholas Blanford at The Daily Star optimistically considers the “potential for compromises if both sides show a degree of flexibility,”Abu Muqawama reacts negatively to Nasrallah’s speech, referring to it as “dumb.” A regular blogger responds, opining that “it looks like they feel they [Hizbullah] can do what ever they want to the Lebanese government and get away with it.”
Visit Bitterlemmons Internaitonal for more in-depth analysis. UPDATE: For a great synopsis of the broader Middle East media response on the Doha agreement, read this BBC report.
In the wake of Kuwait’s Parliamentary elections held last week, The Economist argues that the nation’s efforts toward democratic reform are slowing down democratic reform in the region, not facilitating it. Even though “Kuwait has the strongest and noisiest parliament among the Arab monarchies of the Gulf,” the article claims that “few of their ruling families and friends think the price of democracy is worth paying.” And while the elections have turned over more seats to Islamists who are “just as likely to take on the government” as more secular factions, their long-term viability in the face of the monarchical bulwark is questionable.
Other Gulf countries, such as Qatar and UAE that resemble Kuwait’s societal structure have not yet constructed an election process for Parliamentary members. Despite Kuwait’s problems, however, women participate more directly in government than neighboring states like Saudi Arabia.
UPDATE: For analysis on Kuwait’s party participation, read commentary by Nathan Brown at Abu Aardvark.
Today it appears that an agreement has been reached to resolve the political crisis that has gripped Lebanon since five opposition ministers resigned from the Lebanese cabinet 18 months ago. The deal gives the March 14 ruling coalition a majority of 16 seats in the cabinet and the right to elect the Prime Minister, the Hezbollah-led opposition 11 seats, and three remaining seats to be selected by the President. It is expected that General Michel Suleiman will be elected President later this week, filling the Presidential vacuum that has persisted since the expiration of Emile Lahoud’s term in November.
In a brief statement, Secretary of State Rice declares that the United States government “welcomes the agreement reached by Lebanese leaders in Doha, Qatar.” In a press briefing, Assistant Secretary of State David Welchdescribed the deal as an overall “setback” for Hezbollah, while acknowledging their political gains in the cabinet. The agreement was also reportedly welcomed by France as well as Saudi Arabia and Syria.
Tamara Cofman Witteswrites at the MESH blog that Hezbollah’s largest gain in the deal is not in the cabinet makeup or the changes to the electoral law, but “in safeguarding their weaponry from any efforts at disarmament of political factions by the Lebanese state.” She concludes that this reveals Hezbollah’s priorities as being maintaining their armed capabilities rather than political hegemony in Lebanon.
In the context of the deal, Matthew Yglesias, quoting Fareed Zakaria, looks at Hezbollah from the perspective of the politically underrepresented Shi’a, “Talk of democracy in Lebanon needs to be put in this context. The pro-western, March 4 Coalition is not, for example, “pro-democracy” in the sense of favoring moves toward a fair voting system. But under the circumstances, it’s hardly surprising if Lebanese Shiites decide that they don’t really need democracy.”
Babylon and Beyondlauds the debut of Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani as a diplomatic rock star. Al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister and prime minister, managed to sequester leaders of Hezbollah and the Lebanese state to negotiate and reach an agreement while telling the people of Lebanon, “…this is your wound. You will have to heal it…”
Rami Khouri urges peaceful coexistence in Lebanon, using the unusual example of the cats and pigeons on the campus of the American University of Beirut to draw several lessons for Lebanese politicians.
Rami Khouri at the Daily Starcomments on the role of Qatari-led Arab negotiators in the mediation process between the Sinoira government in Lebanon and the Hizbullah. He states that while Lebanon’s leaders have agreed to “keep meeting until they resolve their current political impasse,” policymakers should address the “real issue” at hand, which is “the viability, credibility and legitimacy of Arab statehood.”
Also at the Daily Star, Chibli Mallat also provides analysis on Doha’s role in the conflict, saying that “the government must also insist that Parliament is the only constitutional place for the dialogue between the Lebanese factions. Doha and other locations are unconstitutional as alternatives to parliamentary sessions.”
Over the weekend BBC World broadcast “The Doha Debates” hosted by Qatar Foundation, on the Sunni-Shia conflict as portrayed in the media. Sayyed Hassan al-Qazwini, imam of the largest mosque in North America, is disconcerted by the widespread radicalization of Muslims by Western press. He also affirms that the media misinterprets the Sunni-Shiite split that has historically been, and continues to be motivated more by politics than religion.
Speakers included Informed CommentcontributorJuan Cole, former advisor to Jordanian King Hussein General Ali Shukri, and Dr. Hisham Hellyer, fellow at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies.
At Dipnote, the official State Department blog, the “Question of the Week: What Impact Would Press Freedom Have on People Without It?
Be sure to check out the April issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This month’s edition features a fascinating interview with three key female political actors from the Gulf on women’s political participation: Rola Dashti (Kuwait), Fatin Bundagi (Saudi Arabia), and Munira Fakhro (Bahrain).
Also included are a critical look at next week’s municipal elections in Egypt by Khalil al-Anani, an examination of the fairness of Morocco’s electoral system by Michael Meyer-Resende, and an article on President Bush’s budget request for fiscal year 2009 and what it means for democracy in the Arab world, by POMED’s Stephen McInerney.
Their news roundup also covers many fascinating developments such as the opening of the first church in Qatar, a constitutional amendment in Tunisia that should make it possible for more candidates to run in the presidential election next year, and labor unrest in the UAE.
Education City, a 2,500-acre campus on the outskirts of Doha and the largest enclave of American universities overseas, provides a glimpse of the potential seedbed of change, with “a profound impact on Qatar’s future and its relations with the United States — and perhaps, some Qatari parents worry, on their traditional way of life.” Education City is seen to represent “broad opportunities for women, in a nation where many families do not allow their daughters to travel overseas for higher education or to mix casually with men.”
Today in U.S. News and World Report, Fouad Ajamiargues that oil wealth leads to increased state confidence and authoritarianism, “casting aside popular will” and leading to ‘irrational’ results in countries including Qatar, Libya, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Bernd Debusmann, in an article in the Daily Star, points out that for the first time in their history the Gulf states are setting aside more money for education than for arms. He suggests this will lead to more reform. However, he points out that “while those driving the education train see it as the start of an Arab renaissance, religious conservatives see an assault on traditional values.” Despite some resistance, he suggests that these are changes that can not be stopped.
Yesterday, Project on Middle East Democracy and Freedom House presented a panel of speakers addressing the issue of reform in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states. Thomas Melia, Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House and former Director of Middle East Programs at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, and Ali Alyami, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia, spoke on reform in Saudi Arabia. David Mikosz, Associate Director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management at the American University in Washington, D.C., and Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke about reform in the other Gulf states.
The overall consensus of the panel was that Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are among the least free in the world and the minimal reforms that have taken place are largely symbolic. However, there is some hope that democracy could develop gradually though accretion of power by parliaments or other consultative bodies. The panel also encouraged US pressure on the Gulf states to support reforms.
Event Details
Date: November 1, 2007 2:30pm
Panelists
Thomas Melia, Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House
Ali Alyami, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia
David Mikosz, Associate Director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management at the American University
Nathan Brown, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator:
Stephen McInerney, POMED’s Director of Advocacy
Downloads
Click here to read POMED’s full notes on this event.
Click here to watch a video transcript of this event on fora.tv or use the embedded player below.
In the Daily Star, David Mikosz writes that local and/or national elections in the countries of the Arabian Peninsula are due partly to democracy promotion, but more to popular demand for increased participation. He cites examples of high voter participation followed by low participation in a later election because of disappointment with actual reform, and argues that most people participate when they think their vote matters. He says that the creation of nonpartisan election administration bodies will help continue this trend toward political participation.
A highly recommended read, the Arab Reform Bulletin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is now available in its June edition. The issue contains an analysis of the challenges facing Iraqi Kurdistan, an examination of the link between economic development and political reform in Dubai, and a look at the varying circumstances for journalists in the Arab world.
In its news roundup, the Bulletin features coverage of Egypt’s Shura Council elections, recent crackdowns on activists in Morocco and Bahrain, and Doha’s recent Conference on Democracy and Reform.
In this interesting piece for Mother Jones, Joshua Kurlantzick addresses the practice of authoritarian governments hiring American P.R. firms to improve their image and relations with the U.S. government. Kurlantzick addresses examples including Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Qatar, and discusses whether this practice encourages real reform or impedes it.
Last night the 7th annual Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade opened with speeches by Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, and President of the UK House of Commons Jack Straw, among others. The three-day conference will address the challenges of building democracy in the Arab world, relations between democracy and economic development, and international initiatives for political reform. On his blog, Dr. Parvez Ahmed gives this report on the event’s opening night.
Last Wednesday, March 28, the Global Language Group at George Washington University hosted a discussion by the Ambassadors to the United States from Egypt, Qatar, Tunisia, and Morocco, addressing the topic, “Democratic Reform in the Middle East.” As you would expect, each focused on the ways in which the regime in his country is working toward democracy, and disagreed with those who see the rulers in these countries as moving away from democratic reform. POMED’s brief summary of each of the four Ambassadors’ points can be found here.
Over the weekend, Qatar held municipal elections, in which the Qatari government reports that 51% of the nation’s 28,000 eligible voters (yes, 28,000) cast ballots for Qatar’s Central Municipal Council, an advisory body formed in 1999. This compares with a 32% turnout in the last elections for the council in 2003. From a pool of 125 candidates, 29 Qataris were elected to the council, including one woman. The weekend’s elections are seen as a precursor to the country’s long-awaited first parliamentary elections, expected later this year.
