In an interesting feature for Reason’s March issue, Michael Moynihan draws upon his recent trip to Tripoli in order to elucidate what he views as Libya’s continuing stagnation despite both its tremendous oil wealth and recent efforts to engage in dialogue with the West. Highlighting notable contradictions between the government’s rhetoric of reform and ground-level realities, Moynihan recounts a number of conversations with ex-terrorists who, although touted by the government as fully rehabilitated, were actually taken off death-row or promised reduced prison sentences in exchange for renouncing political violence and aiding anti-terrorism investigations. One such individual, claiming he “saw the light” and had abandoned Islamism to work for Colonel Qaddafi’s government, defended Libya’s freedom of the speech and journalistic diversity — but when asked if one would be allowed to print an anti-Qaddafi slogan, he recoiled questioned why anyone would do that, which Moynihan interprets as an unintentional barometer of Libya’s true level of liberalism.
Despite these encounters, Moynihan retains some hope that Saif Qaddafi, Muammar Qaddafi’s son and presumed heir, will issue in a new generation of leaders that will “loosen their chokehold on power in exchange for a seat at the adult table of international politics.” But the current wave of superficial and cosmetic reforms, he says, “have brought [the Libyan people] no closer to the representative democracy Qaddafi promised 40 years ago.”
Al-Masry Al-Youmreports today that Egyptian security officials confiscated a novel entitled “Leader Shaves His Hair,” and arrested its publisher El-Demeiry Ahmed, because they believed the novel insults Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi. The novel, written by Idris Ali, “tackles social conditions in Libya in the late 1970s.”
Sawasya Human Rights Center said confiscating the novel violates freedom of expression in Egypt and the legal statute that prohibits doing so without a “legal clearance.” It also said the incident “is a stain on Egypt’s reputation.” Ali said his novel is not intended to criticize Qadhafi, but only to critically examine his ideas “through a popular Libyan perspective.”
Another Al-Masry Al-Youmarticle from today reports that Egypt’s Education Minister Ahmed Zaki Badr recently said teachers would become vulnerable if they were prohibited from beating their students as a disciplinary method. The Egyptian Center for Education Rights released a statement today condemning Badr’s position and warned it could result in five major consequences - most seriously that it could increase violence against children. “The minister has done away with all international pacts on human rights, local laws, and numerous psychological and educational studies that highlight the negative effects of physical pain on children’s behavioral attitudes both in the present and the future,” it said in its official statement.
The new issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin, published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlights ongoing political battles in Palestine, Jordan, Libya, and Egypt. Helga Baumgarten, professor of political science at Birzeit University in Palestine, uses her column to explore the question, “Who will be Arafat’s true successor?” The increasingly complex nature of the Palestinian political infrastructure has thrown a wrench into the traditional power equation which presumed, “whoever leads Fatah will lead the PLO, and the leader of the PLO will be elected president of the PA.” Though Mahmoud Abbas managed to win power immediately following Yasser Arafat’s death, Baumgarten largely dismisses him as a viable long-term option since he “lacks the charisma, mass popular base, and free access to external funds necessary to exercise control as Arafat once did.” After consideration, Baumgarten settles on four men who have what she believes is a sufficient balance between entrenched domestic ties and external (read: U.S.) friendships in order to challenge for a position of power: 1) Mohammed Dahlan, former head of Preventive Security in Gaza; 2) Jibril Rajub, Dahlan’s West Bank counterpart as head of the Preventive Security; 3) Tawfiq al-Tirawi, the former head of General Intelligence in the West Bank; and 4) Hussein al-Sheikh, another high-ranking official from the Palestinian security sector.
Elsewhere in the issue, George Joffé of the Centre of International Studies at Cambridge takes a critical look at Saif al-Islam Gaddafi’s ascension within Libyan politics, noting that he recently achieved the second most powerful post in the Libyan political hierarchy despite his ideological differences with his father, current Libyan president Muammar al-Gaddafi. Joffé maintains that “the significance of this appointment cannot be overstated,” although “it remains to be seen how compromised [Saif al-Islam’s] reform agenda might be” due to his “domestication within the current Libyan political system.”
With regard to Jordan’s recent parliamentary dissolution, journalist Ibrahim Gharaibehexamines the potential areas of political consequence. He senses newfound optimism emanating from domestic Islamist movements, writing that “there are changes to the electoral law rumored that might favor their interests.” The original election law was instituted in 1993 following a previous decision by King Abdullah to disband parliament, and Gharaibeh predicts that the government may use the space created by this most recent dissolution “to embark on a series of social and economic reforms to meet the goals of IMF and WTO programs.”
For an overview of Issandr Amrani’s article on Egyptian electoral politics, published in the Bulletin as well, see our earlier post here.
AFP reports that a foundation run by Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, has catalogued an array of cases of torture, wrongful imprisonment, continuing state domination of the media, and “several flagrant violations” of human rights during 2009. The report condemned such abuses, demanded full liberalization of the Libyan media, and called for a “transparent, just and fair” probe into the 1996 massacre at Abu Slim prison.
AP reports that Human Rights Watch followed with their own report claiming “Libyan dissidents continue to face arbitrary detention and unfair trials, despite a limited expansion of freedoms since the country began to shed its pariah status several years ago.” While Gadhafi’s decision to abandon weapons of mass destruction opened the country to warmer relations with the West, HRW argues “this transformation in Libya’s foreign policy has not galvanized an equivalent transformation of Libya’s human rights record” and that “every Libyan knows that the true reform in the country will not be possible so long as the Internal Security Agency remains above the law.”
Lastly, Dana Moss and Ronald Bruce St. John gave speeches at a policy forum about Libya’s rapprochement with the U.S. Moss believes that Gadhafi’s work to reconcile with the West over WMD’s does not represent a change in Libyan outlook, but rather should be seen as a shift in policies to follow the same ” irrational and erratic” decisions, “perhaps to prove his independence to his hardline domestic constituents, or else to increase his leverage.” St. John argues that rapprochement has benefited Libya, but the country’s inherently flawed political system will continue to hamper all manner of reforms and as a result “it is likely that social and political change will be on hold until Qadhafi leaves power.”
While Libyan leader Col. Muammar Gaddafi played host to Turkish Prime MinisterErdogan, he announced that he will personally intercede to bridge the rift between Egypt and Algeria. Middle East Online is reporting that legislation has been proposed that will allow citizens to create civil associations “on condition that they are apolitical.” To further the prospect that such a law will be adopted, Abdelrahman Boutouta, the head of a legal committee tasked with amending Libya’s penal code, confirms that he intends to decriminalize the creation and membership of NGOs, which previously carried the death penalty. However, the report notes that Boutouta gave no time-frame for these changes.
A new Arab Reform Bulletin has been released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In this issue, Sam Parker explains why the passing of the Iraq election law provides a “fair” outcome for the Kurds while also offering a “small victory” to the anti-Kurd forces. The election law will allow Kurds on the 2009 voting rolls to vote normally, despite fears by anti-Kurd politicians that Kurds are moving to Kirkuk en masse to alter political outcomes. However, the law also stipulates a mechanism to investigate fraud, should the voting outcome appear suspicious. Parker concludes that the “national elections law debate is emblematic of the current state of Iraqi politics: slow, messy, and factionalized, but ultimately democratic and successful in achieving the minimum necessary to carry Iraq forward without falling apart.”
The Middle East International has restarted its printing press after a six-year hiatus, releasing a free PDF issue online in commemoration. According to the Arabist, MEI offers “long articles and analysis from writers based in-country who [know] what they [are] talking about.”
There are several articles in the first issue related to democracy in the Middle East. David Gardner explores why “the Arab world is mired in despotism” and blames America’s “morbid fear of political Islam” for its failure to promote democracy in the region. While the Bush “freedom agenda” is no more, the realization that “tyranny, connived in by the West, breeds terrorism, instability, and societal stagnation” still holds true. Therefore, “President Obama needs to rescue that insight before it is swept away in a backlash of shallow realism.” Gardner continues, “support for autocracy and indulgence of corruption in this region, far from securing stability, breeds extremism and, in extremis, failed states.” Yet while the U.S. must do more to promote democracy, Gardner reminds us that ultimately Arab citizens must lead the effort to democratize their respective countries.
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi’s son, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, was appointed as the head of an important organization of business, political and tribal leaders. Some observers expect Seif al-Islam to use his new position as the second-most powerful person in Libya to propose a constitution. Others are concerned that the move is a signal Ghadafi is grooming his son to succeed him.
Gadhafi’s recent move toward liberalism should not be trusted, writes Michael Taube in The Washington Times. Still, he can be a useful ally for the U.S. as long as he is kept on a short leash.
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation was supposed to announce the winner of its Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, which is awarded to a democratically elected leader who has left office in the past three years, but the committee decided there were no suitable candidates this year. The Foundation recently rated North Africa less democratic than sub-Saharan Africa (see our previous post).
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation has released its latest index that “provides a comprehensive ranking of African countries according to governance quality.” The index breaks the data down into four broad categories: safety and rule of law, participation and human rights, sustainable economic opportunity and human development.
The Arab countries of North Africa fared moderately well on the overall score. Out of 53 countries, Tunisia ranked 8th, Egypt 11th, Algeria 14th, Morocco 16th and Libya 23rd. For the safety and rule of law vector, Arab countries performed slightly above average, with Egypt ranking 16th, Tunisia 17th, Morocco 22nd, Algeria 28th and Libya 33rd.
However, the Arab countries performed below average on participation and human rights, which considered political participation, human rights and gender equality. On these marks, Algeria ranked 31st, Egypt 34th, Tunisia 35th, Morocco 40th and Libya 50th.
Among the Arab countries, Tunisia fared better than expected while Morocco fared worse. Tunisia’s surprisingly good performance seems to be a result of its relatively high levels of gender equality compared to other Arab countries. However, Tunisia’s scores on political participation and human rights rank below other Arab countries, with particularly dismal scores for freedom of expression, freedom of association and the risk of human rights abuses.
Morocco’s particularly low aggregate score stems largely from its lack of executive elections, for which, as a monarchy, it receives a score of zero. However, Morocco ranked the highest among the Arab countries on many indicators, including free and fair general elections, political rights, freedom of association, civil liberties, and freedom of expression.
Despite the internal highs and lows among the Arab countries, it is clear that Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt all lag significantly behind the rest of Africa in the areas of participation and human rights.
President Obama was not the only one to deliver a speech to the U.N. General Assembly yesterday. Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi rambled for over 90 minutes on topics as far ranging as the Kennedy assassination and jet lag. Qaddafi sparked outrage by not only what he said, but by his mere presence.
Walid Phares interpreted the speech as yet one more example of why the U.N. needs reform to better defend democracy. Meanwhile, Qaddafi’s diatribe reminded Richard Just just “how little he deserves the aura of quasi-respectability he has somehow acquired” despite his abuse of human rights and bizarre behavior. Mohammad Eljahmi, brother of Libyan dissident Fathi Eljahmi who recently died while under government custody, said the speech was one more reward that gives Qaddafi respect he does not deserve.
The editors of Foreign Policy identify oil as the only reason why the “bizarre” speech will not leave Qaddafi “completely isolated.” In fact, Andy McCarthyreports the State Department intends to donate $400,000 to foundations run by Qaddafi’s two children.
UPDATE: David Billet of Commentary Magazine adds that beyond the $400,000 directed to Qaddafi’s children, the majority of the $2.5 million in State Department funds assigned to Libya for “Governing Justly and Democratically, Investing in People, and Economic Growth” will be directed through government agencies. Billet expresses sincere doubts Qadaffi will use this money as intended.
Michael Allen has summarized a recent meeting that included Egyptian activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim, Rob Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Jeff Gedmin of Radio Free Europe. Ibrahim argued the specter of radical Islam is receding and therefore the U.S. should seek to engage moderate Islamists who have forsaken violence. He also emphasized the broad support of democracy and liberal values throughout the Middle East. Satloff cautioned, however, that the U.S. should only actively support those groups that genuinely share American values. Finally, Gedmin explained how the Eastern Europe example may be misleading when analyzing the Middle East because individualist values have less appeal in conservative Muslim circles.
In TheDaily Star, Omar Ashour details the robust history of successful de-radicalization of jihadists, citing examples from Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Saudi Arabia. While dictatorships have had success in disarming jihadists, Ashour contends “success[ful] democratization and religious reformation remain critical to a long-term, durable solution.”
Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of Lybian President Muammar Qaddafi, has published a dissertation concerning “the central failing of the current system of global governance in the new global environment: that it is highly undemocratic.” Qaddafi, 37, continues to play a role in Libyan politics and his work calls for the introduction of elected officials into international non-governmental organizations. He writes that the “behaviour of the Bush Administration does not invalidate the liberal view that we can build meaningful international rule by law and institutions based on expectations and reciprocal obligations”.
Commentators across the Arab world continue to mark the 40th anniversary of the coup that brought Muammar Qaddafi to power in Libya. Rami G. Khouri writes in the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star that Libya’s story is emblematic of authoritarianism throughout the region. “The core of the calamity in Libya — common to the entire Arab world — is the lack of freedom for the ordinary citizen.” While lamenting the last 40 years, Khouri expresses his doubts that Qaddafi’s likely successors — his sons — will bring much change.
For those of you who read French, the Moroccan blogger Ibn Kafka has a detailed look back at “40 years of crimes.” He documents disappearances, the confiscation of Jewish property and destruction of Jewish cemeteries, as well as many other abuses of power. The post also contains links to English-language sources on Qaddafi.
On the fortieth anniversary of the coup that brought Muammar Qaddafi to power, Agence France Presse writes that reforms such as a written constitution and privatization of the state press — which Qaddafi’s son and heir apparent, Seif al-Islam, has advocated — have been unrealized as of yet. Meanwhile, Time notes that the controversy over Scotland’s release of convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi, which has cast a shadow on Qaddafi’s anniversary celebration, has also drawn attention to the leniency on human rights issues and terrorism that Libya has received from the international community thanks to its abundant energy resources.
Jeffrey Feltman, the Obama administration’s nominee for Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, can now be confirmed by the Senate. Feltman’s nomination was held up after Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) placed a hold on his conformation in order to pressure the administration to allow an Italian-born constituent access to Libyan terrorist-action relief compensation. The constituent had been wounded in a 1985 attack on a Roman airport.
Feltman is expected to be confirmed by unanimous consent as early as this evening.
Last week, the National Democratic Institute released an informative Bulletin providing comprehensive coverage of Mauritania’s upcoming elections and the political dynamics behind the country’s turbulent road to democracy. An upheaval of Mauritania’s first elected government last August led to the formation of a national unity government in June, which will hold elections this Saturday and ensure transparency. The Bulletin reports that polling in Mauritania shows the top four candidates pitted against each other in a tight race.
The power sharing agreement and elections have been heralded as a step toward democratic reform in a country where elections are a new fixture in the political establishment. In fact the African Union lifted sanctions on Mauritania this month to support “restoring democratic rule.”
Continuing its biographical coverage of Mauritania’s presidential candidates, Kal at the Moor Next Door today focuses on Ould Abdel Aziz, who embodies an unique political persona amongst his rivals. His platform is based on populism and anti-Zionist ideology underpinned by patronage. Attempting to undermine Islamists, he has overtly courted Iran and Libya and lead efforts to dismantle relations with Israel. Kal sees Aziz’s platform as suggesting that the elections could have implications for Mauritania in its relations with the United States.
The Libyan government’s nationalization of private media outlets owned by Muammar Qaddafi’s reform-minded son Seif al-Islam may signal a slowing of Libyan reform efforts. The nationalized newspaper, radio and television channels had openly reported on governmental corruption. They will now be under the control of the National Media Services Centre, overseen by Ramadan Briki, a known opponent of Seif al-Islam’s reforms and advocacy for independent media.
At Foreign Policy, Sarah Leah Whitson discusses how Libya is experiencing its own Arab Spring of sorts, arguing that “for the first time in memory, change is in the air.” She explains how on a recent visit she experienced an unexpected candor, with Libyans openly criticizing the government and challenging the status quo - a practice nearly unheard of a few years ago. Furthermore, “the spirit of reform, however slowly, has spread to the bureaucracy as well.” From resticting the death penalty only to murder convictions and strengthening the separation between the Justice and Internal Security ministries - the state appears to be making tentative yet promising steps. While some are skeptical over the motives behind these moves, Whitson argues that “it is impossible to underestimate the importance of the efforts made so far.”
Natan Sharanskywrites about Libyan dissident Fathi Eljahmi, who died last week after seven years of brutal imprisonment. The West has looked the other way on Libya’s human rights abuses, Sharansky argues, in order to gain the regime’s cooperation on terrorism and proliferation. But it takes concerted international pressure to force regimes to release political prisoners. And when countries intervene in these cases, they bolster the cause of human rights more broadly. “When such dissidents enjoy overwhelming public support from the free world, when international pressure results in their release from custody or when their deaths spark international outrage and sanctions, a powerful signal is sent to others suffering under the regime that they are not alone, that the world outside stands strong in the cause of their freedom.”
On POMED’s Morocco country page, James points out a new site from Magharebia.com. The site, titled Zawaya, aims to “create a space for thoughtful dialogue” by inviting a group of experts to comment on a particular topic and allowing readers to join in the discussion.
