As combat troops are withdrawn from Iraq, questions remain about how this will affect its emerging democracy. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Stephen Hadleyargues, “The six-month stalemate in forming a new government is worrying, but virtually all Iraqi leaders accept the need for a broadly inclusive government.” Mohammad Bazzi believes that Iran has been the true beneficiary of the war, which may have repercussions across the region: “…the Iraq war has unleashed a new wave of sectarian hatred and upset the Persian Gulf’s strategic balance… the brutal war between Iraq’s Shiite majority and Sunni minority unleashed sectarian hatreds that are difficult to contain. This blowback has been most keenly felt in Lebanon…”. Bazzi adds, “Far from becoming a model of freedom and religious coexistence, Iraq remains a powder keg that could ignite sectarian conflict across the Middle East.” According to former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker , “The difficulty and delays we have seen since the March elections illustrate the fundamental truth that everything in Iraq is hard…”. He goes on to list a few of the challenges facing the government once it is formed: “…it will have to wrestle with the tough issues… includ(ing) the structural and constitutional issues underlying much of the tension between Kurds and Arabs in the north — disputed internal boundaries, especially Kirkuk, and the authorities of the federal government in Baghdad vis-à-vis the Kurdish regional government in Irbil, including the control of armed forces.” Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Malikistruck a more hopeful note, “Iraq today is sovereign and independent…our relations with the United States have entered a new stage between two equal, sovereign countries.”
Representatives of various institutions praised the Lebanese parliament’s recent decision to grant Palestinian refugees in Lebanon full employment rights. Salvatore Lombardo, the Lebanon director of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), stated, “These amendments are an important step in the right direction,” while Nada al-Nashif, regional director of the International Labor Office (ILO), commented, “This endorsement of the universal right to work by Lebanese legislators is an important breakthrough.” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon also commended the amendment, saying, “This is a small step that was long awaited on the road to grant the nationality to Palestinians and their naturalization in Lebanon and elsewhere around the world.” Future Movement bloc leader MP Fouad Siniora contradicted this suggestion, remarking that “a healthy and new relation with our Palestinian brothers… would also strengthen the Lebanese and Palestinian commitment to reject naturalization.” Meanwhile, only the Phalange Party criticized Parliament for passing the law, with Phalange leader Amin Gemayel arguing that “it is not fair to give rights to a non-Lebanese when the rights of Lebanese who own land alongside camps are confiscated.”
Writing in The National, Michael Young says that while the Lebanese government “reacted with bravado” after several members of the U.S. House of Representatives decided to cut off military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Hezbollah is continuously gaining influence in the country. Nevertheless, Young writes that the State Department has “declared that the US would not re-evaluate plans to supply the Lebanese army.” The administration is taking a risk by failing to acknowledge the wishes of Representative Howard Berman and the Foreign Affairs Committee, Young explains, since future allocations must be approved by the committee before being executed. The extant fear in the U.S. is that if the U.S. cuts military assistance to the LAF, Lebanon might seek assistance from elsewhere — primarily Iran and Syria. However, Young dismisses this concern as a misconception, stating, “The army is equipped mainly with American hardware and is therefore reliant on American ammunition and spare parts.” While some analysts argue that isolating Lebanon would only benefit Hezbollah, Young says that Prime Minister Saad Hariri “is partly responsible for this state of affairs,” adding that he has “paid lip service to the resistance” because of his “patrons in Saudi Arabia” and a lack of “clear American policy toward Lebanon.”
The Lebanese parliament granted 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon full employment rights today. A Lebanese official commented, “Parliament approved a bill lifting former restrictions on employment for Palestinian refugees, who will now have the right to work in any field open to foreigners with benefits including social security from their own special fund.”
Lee Smith writing in The Tablet mourns “the collapse of the March 14 movement, the return of Syrian hegemony to Lebanon, and Hezbollah’s de facto takeover of the state.” Smith suggests that the Obama administration’s policy of engagement with Syria has empowered Hezbollah and deepened the cracks in the pro-democracy March 14 government, while under George W. Bush’s policy of democracy promotion, the U.S. had previously “curtailed our relationship with Syrian security services and put more money into Lebanese political institutions.” However, Smith ultimately criticizes the American interest in institution-building abroad. Stating that “the premise of institution-building is that it is not the particular ideas and values of foreign cultures that determine how people in those places live; it is rather the absence of U.S.-style political institutions that have kept these foreigners mired in poverty,” Lee says that “this obsession with building political institutions betrays a parochial innocence.” In the case of Lebanon, he concludes, “the United States wanted to help the Lebanese build political institutions but were unwilling to do anything that might alter the balance of power,” adding that “we have abandoned the Lebanese to the jackals.”
Over 25 representatives from Lebanese civil society and NGOs attended a series of workshops on national unity and citizenship yesterday. The event– organized by the Makhzoumi Foundation and the Christians of the Orient and the Collective for Training on Development Action (CRTDA) –emphasized the need to form a common definition of Lebanese nationality over and above sectarian divisions; push for amendments to restrictive laws; and enact social reforms. Specifically, the workshops highlighted empowering women, improving education, and increasing access to health care as important steps to achieving a stronger sense of citizenship. According to Reem Zaben, project coordinator at CRTDA, “We need to encourage integration and we have to work together to develop a common concept of the state and of what our rights are within this state.” More workshops are reportedly planned for after Ramadan, while the CRTDA also intends to complete a report by the end of the year analyzing problems in the provision of social services to Lebanese citizens, and explaining the aggravating affect the situation has on sectarianism within the country.
An official at the Saudi Communications and Information Technology Commission has confirmed that RIM, the Canadian-based maker of Blackberry technology, has struck an agreement with the Saudi Arabian government to allow a server inside the Gulf kingdom, effectively allowing the Saudi government to monitor messages sent over the Blackberry network. The two parties reached the agreement in order to avoid a potential Blackberry ban that was announced by Saudi Arabia late last week, citing fears that messages sent over the highly encrypted, closed network could pose a security threat. According to Abdullah al-Shihri writing for the Associated Press, the deal “could be setting a worldwide precedent for how technology companies and governments get along.”
Meanwhile, a number of other Arab governments debated their position on use of the technology. Lebanese officials expressed their interest in potentially pursuing a deal, with chief of Lebanon’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority Imad Hoballah stating, “RIM has made concessions to the U.S., the UK, Russia and eventually they have to give in to some of the countries depending on the business propositions made. We would be happy with whatever information they have made available to the U.S.” An official source in Algeria predicted that “Ending the BlackBerry service in Algeria is very likely,” as Telecommunications Minister Moussa Benhamadi announced that his government is “looking at the issue. If we find out that it is a danger for our economy and our security, we will stop it.” On the other hand, Bahrain’s foreign minister, Sheik Khaled bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, said that his country does not intend to issue a ban, stating, “We’re not saying there is no security concern,’’ but adding that “there are many other ways for the criminals or terrorists to communicate, so we decided we might as well live with it.’’ Additionally, an official source at the Egyptian National Telecommunication Regulatory Authority denied that security forces have put forward any requests for a ban on Blackberry services in Egypt, adding that no evidence exists that Blackberry networks have been used for criminal activity in that country. Kuwait indicated a more cautious stance toward the issue, with its Communications Minister, Mohammad al-Busairi, commenting that “as of right now, we in Kuwait have no intention to stop the BlackBerry services… but at the same time we are following up on direct and indirect negotiations with the company and with fellow Gulf states.”
Rami G. Khouriwriting in The Daily Star discusses the escalating tension in Lebanon over potential indictments against Hezbollah elements from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2006 assassination. Khouri notes that “the fear is that if Hizbullah is linked with the murders it would use political or even military force to stop the process, perhaps by bringing the Lebanese government to a standstill.” He cites internal military initiatives by Hezbollah and another war with Israel as possible outcomes. Ultimately, Khouri says, the STL issue “pits two powerful forces against each other, with unpredictable results, but equally momentous consequences for Lebanon and entire Arab world”: the need to hold those who murdered the Lebanese premier to justice, versus the desire to maintain the economic and political stability Lebanon has enjoyed since May 2008. According to Khouri, “How to balance these two worthy imperatives – justice and stability – is Lebanon’s great challenge today,” a matter that is further complicated by the fact that regional actors rather than Lebanon itself will likely play the larger role in addressing this challenge. Khouri sounds a note of cautious optimism, however, concluding that “It will be difficult but not impossible to conclude a negotiated understanding that holds the killers accountable and sends a strong deterrent message to anyone contemplating such political murders in the future, while also preserving the calm that now prevails in Lebanon.”
Lebanese MP Fouad Siniora, head of the Future Movement parliamentary bloc, chaired the first of a series of planned meetings yesterday in an effort to reach a unified stance among the parliamentary majority regarding the draft law to grant Palestinian refugees greater rights and improve their humanitarian situation. March 14 Secretariat Coordinator Fares Souaid, representatives from the Lebanese Forces, and several members of the Future Movement, as well as a number of experts on Palestinian issues, all attended the meeting
Meanwhile, the Beirut Bar Association (BBA) forwarded a report to the UN Human Rights Council arguing that Lebanon should work toward a number of reforms on broader human rights issues. The report covered six topics: equality, right to life, public safety, treatment of human beings, status of the judiciary, and private and public freedoms. On women’s rights, the report called for gender equality in taxation, penal codes, nationality and citizenship, social protection laws, judicial rights, and personal status code. It also highlighted the need for encouraging expanded participation of women in politics and decision-making processes. Regarding the judiciary, the report pointed to a need to strengthen the unity, independence, and organization of the judicial authority. On public and private rights and freedoms, the findings emphasized the need for reform of electoral laws to ensure fair representation; urged the abolishment of capital punishment and torture, and suggested that Lebanon should adopt a “health and social safety network” for its citizens. It also called for setting up a special fund to provide such services to Palestinian refugees. The report concluded with a call for the state to sign all relevant international agreements relating to human rights. The Lebanese government is scheduled to discuss the report in September.
Nicholas Noewriting in Foreign Policy analyzes Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s recent comments regarding a potential indictment of members of his party by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Noe argues that Hezbollah does not view the indictments themselves as a direct or serious threat, noting that since 2006, “the party has reached a fundamentally different — and more secure — position of political, diplomatic and military power, not to mention ideological coherence.” Noe argues that “even though many in the West, in Israel and even some in the Arab and Islamic spheres portray Hizbullah as constituted wholly in opposition to reason, democracy and morality (among other things), Hizbullah’s rise is founded, in part, on the discourse and practice of reason.”Given Hezbollah’s attempts to use “rhetorical and operational lengths to prove to various publics — including even the American public — that it is not a ‘crazy’ party,” Noe suggests that the STL decision could ultimately trigger destabilizing currents in Lebanon, since any indictment would damage Hezbollah’s legitimacy and potentially be seen by the party as “a sideshow emboldening and quickening Hizbullah’s enemies” toward a larger issue: an impending sectarian war.
Meanwhile, Omayma Abdel-Latifwriting in Al-Ahram Weekly also discusses emerging political alignments on the STL issue and observes the potential for the indictments to send Lebanon into an internal political crisis. Abdel-Latif highlights the flurry of regional diplomatic activity generated by Nasrallah’s statements, noting that Saudi King Abdullah has undertaken a 4-day tour of meetings with Arab leaders– including Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the emir of Qatar, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman –in order to “discuss damage limitation strategies should leaks of the STL’s finding prove true.” He explains that the rumors of Hezbollah indictments have sparked concern among some analysts that “the tribunal is being used to settle political scores and advance the agenda of the Western- backed 14 March alliance.” According to Abdel-Latif, one solution under consideration at the summit of Arab leaders is urging the postponement of the indictment until late this year, but he notes that “any delay would put off the crisis rather than resolve it.” He cites Lebanese Industry Minister Mohamed Al-Safadi, who has argued that the situation calls for strong leadership from the top, saying: “‘[Prime Minister Saad] Al-Hariri has the bigger role to play in ending this crisis.’”
Elias Muhanna writing at his blog Qifa Nabki suggests that the upcoming summit in Beirut on the issue of the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)—which will be attended by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi King Abdullah—indicates a shift in the March 14 coalition and Saudi Arabia’s approach toward Hezbollah, as well as toward regional actors backing Hezbollah, such as Syria and Iran. In light of recent comments by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that the STL may issue an indictment against some elements of the organization, Muhanna argues that such a verdict “could thrust Lebanon into complete political paralysis and possible sectarian violence,” noting that Hezbollah may decide to withdraw its members from Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s cabinet if pressured and cripple the government, as it did in late 2006. Two or three years ago, Muhanna says, Hezbollah’s opponents “would have been very happy to use the indictments to try to push Hizbullah into a corner, furthering pressuring its regional sponsors in Damascus and Tehran”; the high-level meeting in Beirut reveals “a much more cautious policy of containment which recognizes the valuable political capital that may soon be delivered via an STL indictment against Hizbullah, but which also recognizes the folly of bearing down too hard on the Shiite party.”
Parties in the March 14 Alliance yesterday rejected Hezbollah’s call to form a committee to investigate alleged false witnesses in the probe into former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, following controversial remarks by Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah condemning the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Future Movement MPs argued that the Lebanese national government should not interfere with the work of the STL, an independent, UN-backed tribunal. Lebanese Forces leaderSamir Geagea criticized the allegations, asking, “Who said there are any false witnesses?”, and commenting that Hezbollah “did not back its claims with any judicial authorities or tribunal.” Meanwhile, Minister of State Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein said that political parties were in talks to form a ministerial committee to follow up on the STL, and also suggested that the tribunal could be discussed at the August 19 meeting of the National Dialogue committee. Stating that the STL issue “is important and directly related to a national defense strategy because it relates to national security, which is not restricted only to facing Israel but also security threats, terrorism and preserving national unity,” Hussein called for all political parties– including Hezbollah –to fulfill their responsibility of ensuring Lebanese stability and to engage in “rational rhetoric away from tensions and accusations of treason.”
According to Paul Salem’s recent commentary at Project Syndicate, Hezbollah’s fate “has never looked more uncertain.” While Israel is growing less patient with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for a potential proxy war, Salem explains. Nevertheless, Hezbollah faces the task of justifying its military actions to the Lebanese public, as it has led the country into two “ruinous wars in the span of five years.” In addition, “Syria might be asked by the Arab countries and the international community to take greater responsibility in Lebanon,” Salem predicts. However, due to Hezbollah’s popularity among Shi’a Muslims in Lebanon, Salem argues that it has an opportunity to continue its role as an influential political party, but to do so it would have to separate itself from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Salem also mentions that Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, “might conclude his investigation and issue indictments in the fall” against five members of Hezbollah for their role in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. However, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has rejected the indictments, calling the tribunal “part of an Israeli plot to undermine the Islamic resistance in Lebanon” and alleging that it “has no credibility.” Salem suggests that though Hezbollah’s future may appear bleak, the party “is not likely to relinquish its power without a fight.”
During its recent two-day conference, the Future Movement issued political recommendations, including its “commitment to achieving justice in the assassination of its founder, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri” and creating a positive relationship with Syria. In regard to liberating Lebanese occupied territories, the recommendations said that there are no alternatives to “diplomatic resistance” and “military action,” if needed. The movement stressed that it will not align itself with religious sectarian groups and specifically emphasized that “defending the Christian presence is an Arab and Muslim responsibility as much as it is a Christian one.” In addition, the conference stressed the importance of granting humanitarian rights to Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Jamil K. Mroue writes in The Daily Star that the Arab summit scheduled to be held in Lebanon on Friday this week provides a historic opportunity for Arab states to “preempt potential crisis” in Lebanon. While Mroue recognizes that the Arab leaders may not be able to agree on everything, “they can make two things clear in a unanimous voice”: First, they can declare that Arab states “will not tolerate an unwarranted Israeli attack on Lebanon,” and second, they can clearly state that Lebanon will not be used as an “arena” for intra-Arab conflict. According to Mroue, Lebanon is an “infectious” place, whose instability can spread to the rest of the Arab world.
The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing yesterday to consider nominees for ambassadorial positions in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Turkey. Many of the questions posed by the Committee focused on democratization, human rights, governance, and institution building. The Committee—headed by Chairman Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and ranking Committee member Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-IN) —requested the testimony of four nominees. The first panel consisted of James Franklin Jeffrey, to be Ambassador to the Republic of Iraq, while the second panel included Maura Connelly, to be Ambassador to the Republic of Lebanon; Gerald M. Feierstein, to be Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen; The Honorable Francis Joseph Ricciardone Jr.,to be Ambassador to the Republic of Turkey.
Taylor Long and Alistair Harriswriting in Foreign Policy discuss the postponement of a vote on proposed legislation on Palestinian rights that was supposed to take place in the Lebanese parliament on July 15. Long and Harris observe that the delay may give “nervous politicians time to retrench and dilute the draft legislation,” noting that some rights included in the original draft may have already been dropped as part of intra-party negotiations and concessions, including the right for Palestinians to own property. Nevertheless, they propose that “even granting the right to work in a month’s time would be a historic turning point in a longstanding impasse,” pointing to years of systemic discrimination carried out against Palestinians since the Lebanese civil war.
Questioning why the Lebanese parliament has chosen to take up the issue at this juncture, Long and Harris note that Al-Hayat has suggested that Syria may be behind the push, in an attempt to “sow dissent between members of the anti-Syrian and pro-Western March 14 alliance.” In that regard, they note that the issue has already led to disputes between the two largest March 14 constituencies– the Sunni Future Movement and the March 14 Christian groups –due to fears expressed by Christian leaders that granting increased rights may prove a “slippery slope” leading to “tawteen,” or granting Lebanese citizenship to Palestinians. However, they dismiss this concern, arguing that none of the parties involved supports tawteen. Long and Harris conclude with the assessment that Lebanon has an historic opportunity in the proposed legislation. They suggest that if the bill passes without a significant watering down of its measures, it will increase the country’s stability; show that the Lebanese can “move beyond the factional ghosts of their civil war”; and “foster intra-Palestinian harmony within Lebanon.” If it does not, they predict, “the conditions of the Palestinian community in the country will continue to deteriorate — dragging Lebanese, Palestinian, and regional interests like the Middle East peace process down with them.”
Hanin Ghaddar writes for NOW Lebanon that Mamoun Homsi, a former Syrian MP and political activist who has been residing in Lebanon since 2006, has now been ordered to return to Syria, where he would likely beimprisoned. Before coming to Lebanon, Homsi was imprisoned for five years in Syria for “attempting to illegally change the constitution.” Believing in Lebanon as the “oasis of freedom and democracy in the Arab world,” he was a signee of the Beirut-Damascus Declaration of May 2006 calling on Syria to respect Lebanon as a sovereign state.
Now that the Ministry of Interior is banishing him from Lebanon, Homsi is very disappointed with the verdict. Ghaddar reports that the United Nations High Commission for Refugees officially recognizes Homsi as a refugee and there is also nothing that “would contradict the terms of his residency in Lebanon.” “This is not about Homsi anymore, or freedom in Syria. It is about Lebanon and what we want for it. We cannot send Homsi to Syrian prison after all we’ve been through and all the sacrifices that we made,”says Ghaddar. In a press release against the decision, the National Bloc called on the Lebanese government to ‘immediately correct this error.’
The draft law proposed by some parliamentary members to grant basic civil rights to Palestinian refugees in Lebanon was scheduled to be debated during the parliamentary session today. However, due to disagreements over the draft proposal, the debate has been put off for two additional months based on a request from Robert Ghanem, West Bekaa MP. According to Ghanem, the committee was “not sure that proposed draft laws would be sufficient to secure Palestinians a decent life in Lebanon.” Meanwhile,Amin Gemayel, head of the Phalange Party, rejected the notion that the “Lebanese were divided along religious lines over the Palestinian issue.” In a previous interview, Gemayel said that this is an “internationally-backed Israeli plan to naturalize Palestinians in Lebanon.”
Using funding from USAID, Mercy Corps and the Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) published a handbook of training procedures on democracy and governance both in print and online today. The book “sets out specific guidelines on how to conduct workshops and training seminars on topics including accountability, leadership, corruption and municipal law.” Municipal authorities and local NGOs are being encouraged to apply the guidelines to their own projects, with the hope that the standardized model outlined in the handbook will be adopted throughout Lebanon and eventually spread throughout the region. Focusing specifically on the involvement of youth ages 15-22m the report grew out of a 2009 project entitled “Youth Government through Youth Municipalities,” in which young people from across Lebanon received training in conducting free, transparent elections. The publication seeks to address problems of underfunding and a lack of coordination among municipalities in Lebanon on elections, as well as a lack of education on democratic processes and participation among the youth.
