A New Middle East
August 20th, 2008 by Sarah
Rami Khouri in The Daily Star argues that although the memorandum of understanding signed Monday between Hizbullah and the Lebanese Salafist movement is “unlikely to have a major impact on anything,” it does reflect the “constantly evolving line-up of major political actors in the Arab world.” As a “new Middle East” is being born, Khouri recommends shelving the rules created during Cold War, and coming to grips “with the changing pattern of political sentiment, activism, legitimacy and representation throughout the region.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon | Comment »
Iraq and Regional Diplomacy
August 18th, 2008 by Adam
Ben Lowenberg and Rami Hassan at the Center for American Progress have a good analysis of the regional implications of the visit to Iraq by King Abdullah of Jordan. The two authors see this trip as beneficial to Iraq’s regional standing, as “It is in Iraq’s interest to see this type of diplomatic engagement with its neighbors increase—support from its neighbors will be necessary to build on the recent declines in violence in Iraq and help stabilize the region.” They also say the U.S. can help reintegrate Iraq into the region’s power structure by using its leverage with the GCC states to get them to work with Iraq more closely.
In a further sign of Iraq’s warming ties with the rest of the region, it was announced that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora will visit Iraq this week for diplomatic and economic talks.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon | Comment »
Broad Implications of the Georgian-Russian Conflict
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Itamar Rabinovitch in Haaretz compares the Georgian-Russian conflict with the Syrian-Lebanon situation, and explores its ramifications on the Middle East. “There is less of a chance that the United States and Russia will be cooperating to stop Iran’s nuclear program” and “there is a greater chance that Russia will wage a more ambitious and aggressive policy, including selling advanced weapons systems to Iran and Syria.”
Posted in Iran, Lebanon, Syria | 1 Comment »
A Leap Forward for Lebanon and Syria?
August 18th, 2008 by Sarah
Rami Khouri in the Daily Star comments on the recent violence in Tripoli, arguing that “the underlying conditions that allow the current political violence to happen have percolated and grown for nearly half a century.” Khouri cites “festering and lawless refugee camps, a weak Arab state, populations that turn to religion when modern statehood does not provide for their basic needs, weak local economies that create masses of impoverished people susceptible to mobilization by demagogic or extremist movements, and direct external interference by Middle Eastern and Western countries.”
The Daily Star reports that violence continued over the weekend, after the two-day visit last week between Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
In regard to the future of Lebanon, Raed Rafei at Babylon and Beyond asks whether this meeting is a sign that Syria has “accepted to recognize Lebanon as an independent and sovereign state?” On one hand, the Syrians refused to demarcate the borders at the Shebaa Farms. However, Syria also promised to officially exchange ambassadors and to investigate the disappearances of hundreds of Lebanese who went missing during Lebanon’s civil war.
Meanwhile, an editorial in Arab News lauds the recent efforts by Syria and Lebanon as “a leap forward.” The editorial claims that “the neighbors must build on this bonhomie for a more promising and peaceful future for their people. They deserve a better tomorrow after all they have been through over the past few decades.”
Posted in Lebanon, Syria | Comment »
Lebanon, Syria to Establish Diplomatic Ties
August 14th, 2008 by Adam
Today’s editorial in the Daily Star sees the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria as a tremendous step forward for Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. The editorial optimistically proclaims, “The deal will not immediately erase all of the tensions that took decades to develop, but it will allow for the immediate opening of a new chapter of full and healthy relations between the two states.”
Also in the Daily Star, Michael Young looks at the implications of yesterday’s deadly bombing in Tripoli that killed 18 people. Young sees a Syrian hand in the violence, hoping it will push Lebanon’s army to confront the Sunni extremists in a bid to politically divide the Sunnis and weaken President Michel Sleiman’s parliamentary majority.
Grandmasta at Arabic Media Shack also has analysis on the bombing in Lebanon.
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism, Syria, Terrorism | Comment »
Lebanon’s Unity Government
August 13th, 2008 by Adam
The Daily Star has an editorial regarding the official formation of Lebanon’s unity government, which they say is necessary to fix a country that, “…remains in shambles.” Though the country is still deeply divided, the editorial says the fact that the deeply divided parliament could form a unity government is evidence that the country is trying to get itself back together. The editorial concludes by saying, “The country is in utter disrepair, but its model of governance -democracy - is still far better than others on the roads in this region.”
Posted in Lebanon | Comment »
2008: Lebanese Sentiments On Obama
August 8th, 2008 by Matt
For The Daily Star, Rozina Ali heads into the streets of Beirut to talk to Lebanese about their evolving opinions of Barack Obama’s candidacy. While many of the interviewees still view Obama as an individual with potential to bring real change to the Middle East, Ali perceives a shifting mindset among many Lebanese who have become more circumspect about Obama in light of his political moves toward the center after securing his primary victory. His comments regarding an “undivided” Jerusalem in a speech before AIPAC proved especially unnerving for many of the interviewees.
Posted in Election 08, Lebanon, Public Opinion, US foreign policy, US politics | Comment »
Syrian Intentions
August 5th, 2008 by Adam
Alex & Qifa Nakbi at Syria Comment write on how Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can build up confidence in his intentions so that Israel-Syria peace talks are taken seriously by regional actors and are not undermined. One option would be to gradually implement political reforms so that Assad can lessen his isolation and make himself more palpable of a figure to the West. A second option would be to help push for a simultaneous, yet parallel Israel-Lebanon track. The final option would be for Syria to embrace the Arab Peace Initiative to smooth over relations with Saudi Arabia in order to limit their willingness to act as a spoiler.
Posted in Israel, Lebanon, Mideast Peace Plan, Saudi Arabia, Syria | Comment »
POMED Notes: Subcommittee Hearing: Update on the Situation in Lebanon
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs invited Jeffrey Feltman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the U.S. Department of State to discuss the current political situation in Lebanon in light of the recent Doha Agreement. Feltman welcomed the election of President Sulieman and the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Siniora, and reiterated President Bush’s policy of non-engagement with Hizbullah and Syria.
Rep. Gary Ackerman made opening remarks.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Elections, Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Political Parties, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Fragile Consensus
July 24th, 2008 by Sarah
Posted in Lebanon | Comment »
U.S. Policy After The Israel-Hezbollah Swap
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
Andrew Exum at Middle East Progress recommends that the U.S. continue to arm and train Lebanon’s armed forces “to serve as a viable instrument of the state,” and warns against a drastic change in policy. “The real danger here is that U.S. policy might overcorrect in one of two directions: either the United States could enter into direct negotiations with Hezbollah to undetermined ends or the United States could redouble efforts to arm Hezbollah’s internal enemies in the hopes that their domestic position will be weakened. The former option is foolish, while the latter is suicidal.”
Graeme Bannerman argues at Common Ground News Service that by restoring a governing consensus among Lebanon’s the three largest groups - Maronites, Sunnis, and Shi’a - the Doha Agreement began the process of separating the interests of the Shi’a community from that of Hezbollah. “As more and more Shi’a believe their community interests are protected by the government, and as more and more become less comfortable with Hezbollah policies, Hezbollah leadership will either begin to lose popular support or have to change their policies.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, US foreign policy | Comment »
Thoughts on Lebanon’s Unity Government
July 18th, 2008 by Adam
With the recent forming of Lebanon’s unity government, an editorial in the Daily Star is skeptical of the recent commitment to unity amongst politicians that a month ago were in an intractable conflict. The editorial states that only when politicians undertake, “…an honest assessment of the country’s governance structure in an attempt to identify the characteristics that continually allow politics to degenerate into street warfare,” can their be a real reduction in tensions.
Posted in Lebanon | Comment »
Who Wins With the Israel-Hizbullah Swap?
July 17th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in The Daily Star (Lebanon) declares Hizbullah victorious after the prisoner exchange with Israel. Hizbullah is stronger for having prevented Israel from setting the terms of the outcome and Israel is now “more susceptible to the genuine diplomacy that their governments have traditionally disdained.”
An editorial in The Guardian argues that by agreeing to the swap, “Israel has tacitly admitted that its real purpose [of the 2006 war] was not the release of its soldiers, but the dismantlement of Hizbullah’s military infrastructure,” ultimately leaving Hizbullah stronger today than 2 years ago. Above all else, the editorial laments that the exchange “recognises Hizbullah, rather than the Lebanese government, as Israel’s negotiating partner,” reinforcing the idea that violent resistance bears more fruit.
The Times Online editorial suggests that with the swap, Israel has broken its policy of not engaging with terrorists and has perpetuated a cycle of using hostages as bargaining chips. Meanwhile, an editorial in Now Lebanon bluntly asks “Was it worth it?”
Michael Young in The Daily Star argues that the combination of the recent swap, which bolstered Hizbullah and weakened Prime Minister Siniora, the collapse of Resolution 1701, and a lack of U.S. involvement, means that “the independence intifada is over and Syria has entered a new phase in its effort to re-create in Lebanon what it was made to surrender in 2005.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Military, Syria | Comment »
A Case Study in Democracy: Turkey and Lebanon
July 15th, 2008 by Adam
An editorial in the Daily Star examines the contrasts in the commitment to democracy displayed by Turkish generals and Lebanese politicians in each nation’s respective political crisis. The outward behavior of Turkey’s generals are seen as an encouraging sign that the military is forgoing its traditionally active political role and is willing to accept the supremacy of civilian authority and be bound by the rule of law. It concludes that Lebanon’s politicans would be wise to learn this lesson, as their failure to establish a independent judiciary has prevented them from being held to the scrutiny necessary for Lebanon to become a true democracy.
Posted in Judiciary, Lebanon, Military, Reform, Turkey | Comment »
Assistance to Lebanon’s Armed Forces
July 14th, 2008 by Sarah
David Schenker at Middle East Strategy at Harvard chimes in on the debate over whether the U.S. should give assistance to Lebanon’s Armed Forces. Schenker argues that much of the debate is being fueled by a “factually inaccurate” op-ed by Nicholas Noe in the New York Times where Schenker claims Noe neglected “to even mention the deep divisions in the LAF that are the primary constraint on the long-term prospects for making the military an effective national institution.”
Posted in Lebanon, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Sectarian Soccer
July 8th, 2008 by Adam
At Counterpunch, Karim Makdisi has an interesting article examining the relationship between Lebanon’s perpetual sectarian strife and soccer. Makdisi asserts that Lebanon’s sectarian tensions have permeated the nation’s soccer, and instead of it being an avenue for national unity, it has become merely another sectarian battleground. He then concludes by castigating Lebanon’s leaders for using soccer to, “…further division amongst the country’s soccering communities that would preserve their power and their stranglehold in formulating, and sustaining, Lebanon’s fragile sectarian identity.”
Posted in Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
Doha Agreement Brings Temporary Calm to Lebanon but Avoids Tough Political Choices
July 3rd, 2008 by Stephen
Note: this article by POMED Policy Associate David Mikhail originally appeared in the June 2008 POMED Newsletter.
“Obviously in any compromise there are compromises. This was an agreement that I think served the interests of the Lebanese people. And since it served the interests of the Lebanese people, it served the interests of the United States. We support the democratically elected government of Lebanon.”
The Doha agreement, the subject of this resigned endorsement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in ending the presidential vacuum that had persisted in Lebanon for six months, yielded several checkmarks in the democracy column: the presidential appointment of General Michel Sleiman; increased hopes for the formation of a unity cabinet; and the return to smaller electoral districts, long called for as more equitable than the system in place since 2000.
But as the post-Doha political realities begin to emerge, it is clear that the agreement could ultimately represent yet another win for short-term, ephemeral stability rather than a catalyst for the longer-term reforms truly needed for democracy in Lebanon.
Lebanon after Doha
As of yet, Doha has not brought an end to Lebanon’s political deadlock, but merely transferred it from the parliament to the executive. The usual partisan bickering has emerged as Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a member of the Future Movement, the largest party in the March 14 Coalition majority, has been unable to produce a unity government due to disagreements over the disbursal of cabinet portfolios. And even if agreement is reached on a unity government, the possibility of prolonged deadlock is dangerously high, as the opposition’s veto power will further decrease the already limited room for political maneuvering for Hariri and Siniora.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Lebanon, US foreign policy | Comment »
