Diplomacy Directives
August 15th, 2008 by Amanda
The U.S. and Iran may be approaching a ‘cold peace’ according to Arshin Adib-Moghaddam at the Daily Star. He opines on the impetus; “states and societies, especially in the wider Arab and Muslim worlds, feel compelled to protect themselves from this penetrative source of instability, not least because governments are increasingly scrutinized by assertive civil societies from Cairo to Riyadh. These have made it that much more difficult for authoritarian states to favor regime survival over national interest. “
As both nations move toward apparent rapprochement, some posit that Isreal’s message is not necessarily consistent with U.S. policy. At TPM Cafe, M.J. Rosenberg points out an editorial by Haaretz suggesting that “Israel must allow diplomatic efforts to move ahead,” but he also clarifies that Washington policymakers are attempting to push through legislation implementing sanctions on the Persian nation while concurrently “playing down the military option.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, US foreign policy | Comment »
The New Iranian Approach
August 11th, 2008 by Adam
At Bitter Lemons International there is a debate over the Bush administration’s new policy towards Iran. Michael Rubin sees the change in policy as a disastrous shift that will allow Iran to exploit what they perceive as American weakness. Similarly, Aluf Benn looks how this policy change is viewed negatively in Israel. Lastly, Arshin Adib-Moghaddam examines the changing dynamics in the geopolitical order that forced Bush’s policy shift on Iran.
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, US foreign policy | Comment »
Democracy For Peace
August 8th, 2008 by Adam
In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, Natan Sharansky and Bassem Eid suggest that peace between the Israelis and Palestinians requires democratic reform and an empowered civil society in the Palestinian Territories. The two suggest that Israeli and American passivity towards Fatah’s corruption and flattening of civil society allowed Hamas’ political rise and made peace unlikely. They suggest peace efforts not be based on who is ruling, but on how they rule. Sharansky and Eid conclude by saying, “It is high time that Palestinian civil society be fully recognized by the international community as a prerequisite to peace, not as an obstacle to it. If Palestinian civil society is not empowered, the Fatah-controlled West Bank may soon be ruled by Hamas, and Fatah leaders there may find themselves one day having to rely on Israel’s Supreme Court to save them.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Hamas, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine | Comment »
Convoluted Elections In Israel
August 7th, 2008 by Sarah
Bernard Gwertzman of the Council on Foreign Relations interviews Gerald M. Steinberg on Israeli Prime Minister Olmert’s plans to step down from office. Gwertzman illuminates the Israeli political scene, and shares insight into who may emerge as Israel’s new leader and why the electoral system is so convoluted.
Posted in Elections, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan | Comment »
Problems in Palestine
August 5th, 2008 by Adam
An editorial in the Daily Star claims that the recent infighting between Hamas and Fatah illustrates how much the two groups have imperiled the Palestinian cause. Instead of Israel, the Palestinian groups’ inability to put partisan differences aside and keep focused on their struggle represent a greater threat to the Palestinian people. The editorial warns that continued political bloodshed and internal violence threatens the Palestinians’ “very right to existence.”
Posted in Hamas, Israel, Palestine | Comment »
Syrian Intentions
August 5th, 2008 by Adam
Alex & Qifa Nakbi at Syria Comment write on how Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can build up confidence in his intentions so that Israel-Syria peace talks are taken seriously by regional actors and are not undermined. One option would be to gradually implement political reforms so that Assad can lessen his isolation and make himself more palpable of a figure to the West. A second option would be to help push for a simultaneous, yet parallel Israel-Lebanon track. The final option would be for Syria to embrace the Arab Peace Initiative to smooth over relations with Saudi Arabia in order to limit their willingness to act as a spoiler.
Posted in Israel, Lebanon, Mideast Peace Plan, Saudi Arabia, Syria | Comment »
On Olmert’s Resignation
August 1st, 2008 by Sarah
Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he will resign after a new party leader is choosen in September. Daniel Levy at TPM Café outlines what his resignation means to Israeli politics–both inside his party and in general, the Palestinian situation, the Syrian talks, and Iran.
Because Levy does not believe a peace agreement with Syria is feasible, nor prudent, at this time, he recommends that the U.S. start creating a Plan B. “That would mainly consist of two things: (1) is there a way to preserve some of the progress made in negotiations?; (2) how to prevent a further deterioration of the situation on the ground—settlements, closures, security.”
In regard to an Israeli attack on Iran, Levy argues that “if Israel does attack, and I think it is unlikely, it will not be because of political caprice dictated by an outgoing politician as part of some legacy. Israel’s security establishment does not work like that.” Instead, Levy suggests that “the louder the Israeli rhetoric, the more this is about leverage rather than imminent action.
Posted in Iran, Israel, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Is Syria’s Relationship With Iran Compromised?
August 1st, 2008 by Sarah
Bassel Oudat in Al-Ahram Weekly examines Syria’s recent behavior (ie. “talking to Europe, staying out of Lebanon, talking to the Israelis, and generally stressing the pragmatic aspect of its foreign policy”) and adds to the speculation that Syria “is about to ditch its alliance with Iran.”
The Jpost.com staff agree that Syria’s relationship with Iran may be compromised, after Israeli Prime Minister Olmert’s envoys returned from another round of indirect talks with Syria and suggested that a peace agreement with Syria is within reach.
However, Jonathan Spyer in the Jerusalem Post disagrees, arguing that Syria’s talks with Israel is merely aimed at receiving the benefits from “the very act of talking” rather than the talks themselves, and that Syria’s “alliance with Iran seems safe and sound.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Syria | Comment »
A Grand Strategy
July 31st, 2008 by Sarah
Kenneth Pollack joins WashingtonPost.com readers online to discuss his recently published book “A Path Out Of The Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East.” Pollack answers questions about America’s dependence on foreign oil, missed opportunities to develop a relationship with Iran, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In regard to U.S. influence in the region, Pollack recommends that the U.S. “help ALL of the Muslim Middle Eastern states, including the rich Gulf states, begin a long-term process of reforming their economic, political and social systems to deal with the underlying problems that generate the endemic instability and terrorism of the region, and that create the greatest threats to us and to them.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Oil, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
Setback to Democracy Promotion
July 30th, 2008 by Sarah
Rami Khouri in the Daily Star looks to the advice of Robert Pelletreau, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs and ambassador to three Arab countries, to review why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the oil situation, and efforts to expand democracy are worse off now than before Bush became President. Democracy promotion “has been set back by our headlong push for elections in countries with little or no popular experience in political participation. The result has been clerical-led factions being elected in Iraq, Hamas winning parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories, the Muslim Brotherhood gaining ground in Egypt, Hizbullah becoming a stronger political force in Lebanon and even the word ‘democracy’ now being widely treated in the region as an American implant.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraq, Israel, Muslim Brotherhood, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
Inside Iran and Out
July 25th, 2008 by Amanda
In an intriguing article by The Economist, questions are posed as to who really has the controls of government in Iran - Is it Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Despite Ahmadinejad’s exposure, “Mr. Khamenei … is plainly the most powerful man in the Islamic Republic; no big decision can be taken without his consent.” Even though the presidential elections are soon approaching and Ahmadinejad’s leadership role may be tenuous, the outcome may be superfluous when it comes to certain factors. Regardless of who the next president will be, “a big shift in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy seems unlikely while the 69-year-old Mr Khamenei remains the supreme leader.”
Time magazine examines the possibility of unilateral strikes on Iran by Israel, particularly after the US has changed its tone. Time posits that Bush’s shift in rhetoric “makes it more likely that Israel will follow Washington’s lead rather than striking out on its own.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Political Islam, US foreign policy | Comment »
Accepting an American-Iranian Dialogue
July 24th, 2008 by Sarah
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi makes his first official visit to Washington and warns that Israel would not rule out any course of action regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Meanwhile, Aluf Benn at Haaretz derides the Bush administration for drastically shifting its policy toward Iran, but ultimately recommends that “instead of making the mistake of holding on to the false hope that Bush will actually order the bombing of Iran, Israelis should start looking at the positive aspects of an American-Iranian dialogue, while insisting that Israel’s vital interests not be undermined.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Palestinian Security Forces as a Move Towards Peace
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Anthony Cordesman in an op-ed in the New York Times argues that the U.S. should help build a Palestinian security force in order to promote peace between Palestinians and Israelis. “Unless there are effective Palestinian security forces, Israel will never trust in a Palestinian state or be able to act on the quiet progress being made toward reaching a final settlement.”
Along those lines, Cordesman denounces the State Department for acting as a “key barrier to the first real step toward peace,” by preventing U.S. actors from “working in the field and developing critical personal relationships with Palestinian officers and officials.”
Posted in Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Military, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
2008: Dennis Ross Joining Obama on Mideast Trip
July 17th, 2008 by Matt
Time magazine’s Massimo Calabresi reports on Barack Obama’s choice to have Dennis Ross accompany him on his Middle East trip, what Ross’ presence might mean to Arab and Israeli observers, and whether or not Ross might have a future role on Obama’s negotiating team for the Arab-Israeli peace process.
Posted in Election 08, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, US foreign policy, US politics | Comment »
Who Wins With the Israel-Hizbullah Swap?
July 17th, 2008 by Sarah
An editorial in The Daily Star (Lebanon) declares Hizbullah victorious after the prisoner exchange with Israel. Hizbullah is stronger for having prevented Israel from setting the terms of the outcome and Israel is now “more susceptible to the genuine diplomacy that their governments have traditionally disdained.”
An editorial in The Guardian argues that by agreeing to the swap, “Israel has tacitly admitted that its real purpose [of the 2006 war] was not the release of its soldiers, but the dismantlement of Hizbullah’s military infrastructure,” ultimately leaving Hizbullah stronger today than 2 years ago. Above all else, the editorial laments that the exchange “recognises Hizbullah, rather than the Lebanese government, as Israel’s negotiating partner,” reinforcing the idea that violent resistance bears more fruit.
The Times Online editorial suggests that with the swap, Israel has broken its policy of not engaging with terrorists and has perpetuated a cycle of using hostages as bargaining chips. Meanwhile, an editorial in Now Lebanon bluntly asks “Was it worth it?”
Michael Young in The Daily Star argues that the combination of the recent swap, which bolstered Hizbullah and weakened Prime Minister Siniora, the collapse of Resolution 1701, and a lack of U.S. involvement, means that “the independence intifada is over and Syria has entered a new phase in its effort to re-create in Lebanon what it was made to surrender in 2005.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Military, Syria | Comment »
Bolton In The WSJ
July 16th, 2008 by Sarah
Many are discussing John Bolton’s piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday calling for the U.S. to lend support to Israel “before, during, and after a strike on Iran.”
Matthew Yglesias questions Bolton’s assertion that bombing Iran would delay them from obtaining nuclear weapons and asks whether a U.S. or Israeli attack would serve to strengthen Iranian domestic support to build a nuclear weapon and lead foreign nations to be more sympathetic towards Iran.
Justin Logan at Cato@Liberty also questions Bolton’s recommendations, but notes that he is open to debate.This is an awfully, awfully thin reed on which to base a case for starting another unprovoked war in the Middle East.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Possible Attacks on Iran?
July 15th, 2008 by Sarah
Today, Fars News Agency (Iran) reports that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is interested in having direct talks, without preconditions, with the U.S. “if they come to us on equal footing.”
In regard to a possible Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran, Gwynne Dyer at Arab News is skeptical and argues that Iran “clearly concluded that all the American and Israeli threats to attack them are mere bluff.” Dyer believes Iran’s recent missile testing is merely a cost-free strategy to strengthen Iran’s support domestically.
Meanwhile, an editorial in The Jordan Times recommends that “diplomacy must be given more time to work out a solution to the crisis, especially when there are signs that the Iranian authorities will blink first.”
However John Bolton argues in the Wall Street Journal that “instead of debating how much longer to continue five years of failed diplomacy, we should be intensively considering what cooperation the U.S. will extend to Israel before, during and after a strike on Iran. We will be blamed for the strike anyway, and certainly feel whatever negative consequences result, so there is compelling logic to make it as successful as possible. At a minimum, we should place no obstacles in Israel’s path, and facilitate its efforts where we can.”
In regard to using Afghanistan as a possible launching pad for such an attack, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, states that “Afghanistan would never like its soil to be used against another country,” emphasizing his desire to remain on good terms with both Iran and the United States.
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, Military | Comment »
The U.S. and the Israel-Syria Talks
July 15th, 2008 by Adam
Over at Syria Comment, they have posted excerpts of a position paper written by several prominent academics and diplomats about the U.S. role in Israel-Syria negotiations. The paper contends that the U.S. facilitate, and if necessary, join the Israel-Syria talks as without American assistance it might not be possible for painful concessions to be made on either side. However, they state that Syria must not assume that a new U.S. administration will necessarily embrace talks, as without Syrian accommodation on Lebanon and Iraq, it is unlikely the U.S. will be willing to spend the political capital necessary to help Syria recover its lost territory.
Posted in Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Syria’s Diplomatic Move
July 14th, 2008 by Sarah
Hussein Shariatmadari warns Syria of the negative impact that peace with Israel will have on relations with Tehran.
Meanwhile, Tony Barber in the Financial Times noted that the inaugural session of the Mediterranean Union was the first time an Israeli and a Syrian leader had been seated in the same room.
At the session, Syria announced that it would open an embassy in Beirut and Lebanon an embassy in Damascus for the first time since Lebanese independence in 1943. “Such a step would imply Syrian acceptance of the sovereignty of Lebanon.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Syria | Comment »
Recommendations on a Response to Iran
July 14th, 2008 by Sarah
Debates continue to focus on Iran after its missile testing last week.
Via Jim Kouri at The Conservative Voice, Riki Ellison of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance warns that Iran’s recent missile testing is unequivocally a “Clear and Present Danger” to the U.S. and its allies. Ellison argues that “missile defense…can stabilize and offer valuable positioning for diplomatic efforts to ease down the intensity and work for a solution.”
Meanwhile, Babu Ranganathan at The Conservative Voice argues that Iran will not attack Israel because the fallout on Palestinians and neighboring Arab populations is not in Iran’s strategic interests. Instead, Ranganathan recommends shifting U.S. attention to the “real culprit” in the region: Pakistan.
At Foreign Policy Passport, Blake Hounshell castigates an article about an Iranian threat by Uzi Mahnaimi in The Times of London as alarmist. Instead, Hounshell recommends an article by Jim Hoagland who argues that although a military option may still be on the table, “it has been pushed beyond reach under almost all circumstances.”
And in a recently issued report by the RAND Corporation, Keith Crane recommends a long-term U.S. policy that “should be crafted with the goals of fostering conditions for a more democratic Iranian society, weakening the ability of the Iranian government to crack down on dissenters, and penalizing the Iranian government for policies that harm the United States.”
To read the full report, click here.
Posted in Iran, Israel, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
