Photo Credit: Reuters/Ahmed Jadallah

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) took Syria’s seat the Arab League’s Tuesday summit. Qatar’s emir, who chairs the summit, formally invited the SNC to assume the seat in place of President Bashar al-Assad‘s government, which the League suspended in late 2011 due to its crackdown on protesters. Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, who said this weekend that he will resign as head of the opposition coalition, led the coalition’s delegation. He was joined by Ghassan Hitto, the newly-elected interim prime minister, as well as prominent opposition figures Suheir Atassi and George Sabra.

In a report released by the Institute for the Study of War, Elizabeth O’Bagy examines the Free Syrian Army. She discusses its efforts to increase tactical coordination and examines the legitimacy and efficacy of the recently-elected Supreme Military Council (SMC) as a vehicle for rebel coordination and command and control. O’Bagy also outlines obstacles for the SMC and considers its possible role in filling the security vacuum if Assad falls. She concludes, “Working with the SMC could enhance America’s position vis-à-vis Syria’s armed opposition and provide a mechanism for stability.”

Writing for The Washington Post, David Ignatius describes a battle for influence on the political and military activity of the Syrian opposition. He argues that although the U.S. has attempted to foster moderation, it has failed to effectively override Arab states’ efforts to shape the conflict’s outcome, particularly Qatar’s attempts to engender support for Islamist governance. Ignatius notes a lack of willingness or ability for the U.S. to shape the opposition’s recent political maneuvers, saying, “The lack of U.S. influence is one more sign of the price that Washington has paid in coming to the Syria problem so late, and so feebly.” He warns that this limited influence could produce a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government after Assad’s fall.

Photo Credit:  AFP/Bulent Kilic

As part of an effort to bolster a transitional government, the Syrian National Coalition has urged the international community to recognize the opposition’s right to take Syria’s seats at the U.N. and Arab League, The Daily Star reports.  The organization, widely recognized by Arab and Western governments as the sole representative of the Syrian people, is also seeking the acquisition of frozen assets of Bashar Assad’s government abroad.  Syria’s membership to the Arab League was suspended by member states in November 2011 in protest of Damascus’s crackdown on peaceful demonstrations, although it still maintains a seat at the U.N.  The coalition, established in November in Qatar among the opposition’s various factions, hopes “ to end all legitimacy of the Assad regime” through the move.

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The Arab League Ministerial Council concluded its meeting in Doha without reaching a conclusion to the Arab Peace Initiative or the reevaluation of the peace process. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said the initiative would “not be an offer forever.” However, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said “it is not permissible to talk about sidelining the Arab Peace Initiative.”

In response to Palestine’s upgraded U.N. status, Israel has refused to transfer tax revenues it collected on behalf of the Palestinian Authority last month. The money will instead by used to pay off a debt the Palestinian Authority owes the Israel Electric Corporation. Senior Palestinian official Yasser Abed Rabbo said Israel is guilty of “piracy and theft,” while leader of the Israeli Meretz party Zahava Gal-On said “the finance minister and the prime minister have overstepped their authority in a most egregious manner.”

Protesters gathered in Hebron to mourn the death of Palestinian teenager, Muhammad Ziad Awad Salaymah, who was killed by an Israeli policewoman. Officers who were present at the scene testistified that Salaymah had been carrying carrying a gun. However, it was later determined the gun was actually a toy pistol made of metal.

Human Rights Watch released a statement demanding that the Israeli military “immediately return property seized from the offices of Palestinian human rights and civil society groups in the West Bank and compensate them for damages in the absence of any lawful justification for the raids,” which occurred on December 11.

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Opposition activists crowded around the presidential palace while government supporters converged just a few miles away on December 11 for a day of protests before Saturday’s referendum. In the early morning masked gunmen of fired birdshot on protesters camping in Tahrir square, wounding nine people. The army, which received authority to arrest civilians and refer them to military courts, has been ordered to assist the police in keeping security until results of Saturday’s referendum are announced.

In a move that has caused additional frustration, President Mohamed Morsi implemented a voting restriction requiring Egyptians to vote in their local district, claiming the restriction avoids “concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.” However, many Egyptians not currently living in their local district might not be able to cast a vote due to the cost and time associated with returning home, despite an announcement that train and bus fares will be subsidized on election day. Meanwhile, Egypt’s finance minister announced that a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan will be delayed until next month. “The delay will have some economic impact, but we are discussing necessary measures (to address that) during the coming period,” finance minister Mumtaz al-Said said.

“The regime has so far shown absolute failure in handling the situation or offering the opposition any real compromises,” said Ziad Akl, a senior analyst at Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. “If the political uncertainty and street violence weren’t enough, Egypt’s stock market reacted negatively to the recent developments,” said Ayman Mohyeldin, citing the stock market’s plunge in response to a proposed tax hike, which has since been cancelled. Roula Khalaf noted that the situation in Egypt has provided Arab regimes with a warning for their constituency. “Beware the Islamists now that they have show their true colors. That’s the message that the authoritarian Arab regimes still standing are sending to their people as the Middle East watches with alarm the possible unraveling of the first major Muslim Brotherhood experiment in government (in Egypt).”

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The newly formed National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces gained further legitimacy with backing from the Arab League and support from the international community. U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner released a statement saying, “We look forward to supporting the National Coalition as it charts a course toward the end of Assad’s bloody rule and the start of the peaceful, just, democratic future that all the people of Syria deserve.” Reading from the League’s resolution, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Qatari prime minister and foreign minister, said “The Arab League ministerial council welcomes the agreement that the Syrian opposition parties reached … and calls on the other opposition parties to join this coalition.” The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council unanimously agreed to recognize the coalition as “as the legitimate representative of the brotherly Syrian people,” said GCC chief Abdullatif al-Zayani. Meanwhile, groups within Syria have cautiously given their support to the new leadership council. “Any step toward a united Syria makes us happy. I don’t care if they never come to Syria, as long as they want to help us this is good,” said Shadi Hafeez, a fighter in the Free Syrian Army.

The new opposition group, which includes leadership spots reserved for minorities and for representatives of provincial revolutionary committees on the ground, expects more humanitarian and military aid from the international community. However, U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford reportedly told the groups negotiating in Doha last week that they should not expect U.S. military assistance, even if they did establish a new opposition council. Yet, coalition spokesman Yaser Tabbara said, “I believe the international community is ready to invest in the opposition both militarily and politically. That is the sense we got in Doha.” If the new coalition is recognized by key U.S. allies, namely Britain and France, as Syria’s new government, pressure would also grow on Washington to abandon its reluctance to provide sophisticated weaponry.

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the U.S. would withdraw its support for the Syrian National Council. The Obama Administration has reportedly been in secret negotiations to establish a new opposition body which will be decidedly more representative of Syria’s demography. “We’ve made it clear that the SNC can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition,” Clinton said. “The opposition must include people from inside Syria and others who have a legitimate voice that needs to be heard,” she added. The makeup and strategy of the new “National Initiative Council” will be revealed when the Syria opposition meets next week in Qatar. The 51 member council will reportedly include 15 seats for members of the SNC, along with positions for Kurds and other minority groups. Secretary Clinton went further saying, “We also need an opposition that will be on record strongly resisting the efforts by extremists to hijack the Syrian revolution.” The move signifies a “clear break with the SNC,” which points to the Obama Administration’s “long-held frustration with the group’s failure to forge a coherent strategy and unite disparate components of the opposition under its umbrella.” It is hoped that the NIC will win  the approval of the international community along with a mandate from the Arab League to succeed Bashar al-Assad‘s government, if and when it falls.

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Shadi Mokhtari wrote a piece detailing the growth of human rights movements within the Middle East. Regional voices calling for increased attention to human rights have grown in both  number and legitimacy over the past two years. “Where they have not been able to substantially realize their demands, they have often compelled authoritarian rulers to go to increasingly greater lengths to showcase purported commitments to rights, the most notable examples being the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) and the prosecution of [Egyptian President] Hosni Mubarak,” Mokhtari said.

More meaningful human rights engagements are also taking shape at the regional level. Mohktari noted that private NGOs and ordinary activists are continually demonstrating and drafting statements which condemn abuses in other Middle Eastern countries. “For instance, Tunisian activists hold a ‘Friends of Bahrain’ conference to show support for the Bahraini revolution in reaction to the ‘Friends of Syria’ conference in Tunis, while Yemeni activists gather to support the hunger strike of a prominent Bahraini activist,” she wrote.

Civil society organizations in the Middle East are also tackling the international aspect of human rights in the region. They have done so by addressing the issues which they think are the most important priorities, while publishing their own assessments and prescriptions for change. These groups are also “challenging what they consider to be international powers’ insincere treatment and violations of human rights in the region. What is new… are increased efforts by Middle Eastern activists to use their strengthened position to make their voices heard by world powers.”

Mokhtari is adamant that authoritarian political structures must be dismantled in order to give human rights the attention they require. If the structures are not replaced she said, “Concessions in areas such as women’s rights can too easily be used as a substitute for or distraction from political rights.”  While she does concede that Western organizations have been moderately successful in campaigning for the advancement of human rights, she is emphatic that “the big picture and net effect of Western and particularly U.S. policies in the region hardly support Western governments’ claims to being on the side of human rights in the Middle East.” With that in mind, Mokhtari is confident that Middle Eastern actors will increasingly come to shape the future of human rights promotion in the region.

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U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Keeping Operations, Herve Ladsous, confirmed that plans are underway regarding a peacekeeping force to Syria, should the regime and the opposition agree to a cease-fire. The final decision will be contingent upon the U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi’s ability to negotiate the cease-fire, preferably before Eid al-Adha on October 26, and a confirmation vote by the U.N. Security Council. The regime has continued to conduct air raids on Aleppo and neighboring districts “and the daily death toll continues to exceed 100,” according to the Director of the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman. On 22 October, anti-Assad militants engaged Jordanian soldiers while attempting to “illegally enter Syria,” leading to the death of one Jordanian soldier.

A U.S. Department of State official declared“the onus of this kind of violence” as resting “squarely on the Assad regime.” Human Rights Watch also released a report on October 23, disproving the Syrian Army’s denials regarding the use of cluster bombs. According to a recent interview with Steven Heydemann of the United States Institute for Peace, Turkish citizens are also gravely “concerned about the possibility of war with Syria,” given the “economic and social consequences” as well as the potential for a refugee crises. Howard Eissenstat recently wrote that although the Turkish government has taken a “tough stance against the brutality of the al Assad regime,” they also have a dismal record on human rights. Eissenstat highlights the fact that freedom of speech is greatly limited and that a war with Syria could even be used by Turkish officials to increase ethnic violence against Kurdish populations and other minorities. On another note, Andrew J. Tabler and Jeffrey White of the The Washington Institute outlined their approach to identifying potential U.S. allies in Syria, should the next administration attempt to increase support for the Syrian opposition.

Photo Credit: El Watan

Algerian community guards in the province of Boumerdes held [French] a sit-in Tuesday outside their provincial headquarters to demand their pay from the month of June. The supplementary police force accused the government of suspending their pay because of their involvement in national protest marches demanding better salaries and benefits. After several hours of protesting, the group rose and marched to Boufarik to join other community guards and coordinate future actions.

Additionally, the Algerian Consumer Federation began [French] a boycott on red and white meat, set to last a week, to protest the soaring price of food in the country. Participation by federation members was around 30 percent, but the group has plans to boost those numbers to 50 or 60 percent, and will follow this first boycott with successive ones on vegetables and dried goods. The price for chicken in Algeria has nearly doubled in the past week, with mutton and beef prices rising beyond the reach of middle class consumers. The chief executive for the federation blamed the sharp increases on the “absence of public authorities” during Ramadan who normally try to control major fluctuations in price.

Algeria also rejected the Arab League call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, arguing that issues of sovereignty are beyond the council and can only be decided by the Syrian people. Iraq and Algeria were the only two members to reject the motion.

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Intense fighting between government forces and the Free Syrian Army continued in Damascus and Aleppo today. Syrian troops reportedly regained control over areas of Damascus taken by rebels last week, who have recently taken over several border crossings into Iraq and Turkey, as well. Yesterday rebels also began an offensive in Aleppo, a key government stronghold.

Meanwhile, the Syrian government said today that it will not use chemical weapons against its own people, except in the case of “exterior aggression,” alluding to a possible invasion. The U.S. weighed in, with Pentagon press secretary George Little telling reporters that “[Syria] should not think one iota about using chemical weapons.” U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon agreed, saying that “it would be reprehensible if anyone in Syria would use weapons of mass destruction.” Russia still maintains that the conflict must be resolved through negotiations rather than fighting, and President Vladimir Putin said that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad could lead to prolonged civil war.

The Arab League is offering al-Assad and his family a safe exit from power if he steps down, and also promised to give $100 million to Syrian refugees in neighboring countries. The Syrian government, however, rejected the offer: “We are sorry that the Arab League has descended to this level concerning a member state of this institution,” said Syrian foreign ministry spokesmen Jihad Makdissi. “This decision only concerns the Syrian people, who are the sole masters of fate of their governments.” The European Union also ratcheted up pressure on Syria today, tightening sanctions against regime-supporting countries, whose ships and airplanes must now be searched if they are suspected of transporting weapons or banned equipment to Syria.