Analysis: “Saudi Arabia and Qatar in a Time of Revolution”

The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program released its latest Gulf Analysis Paper, “Saudi Arabia and Qatar in a Time of Revolution,” by Bernard Haykel. The paper reviews both countries’ behavior during the Arab Spring and finds that they have been “proactive in the pursuit of revolutionary change” despite their conservative domestic policies. It notes that Qatar has been particularly assertive, treating the turbulence as an opportunity to seek the “more prominent position in regional politics” its leadership desires. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been more cautious, reflecting its initial “genuine concern…that the wave of revolts was unstoppable.”

Haykel reports that “the two countries have collaborated on some fronts and diverged on others.” In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia took the lead as both supported the monarchy. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia led the effort to forge a transition while Qatar was not involved. In Tunisia and Libya, Qatar prominently supported the revolutions and Saudi Arabia was more passive. Haykel identified the countries’ differences as their domestic situations and relationships with the Muslim Brotherhood. While “a close, even symbiotic, relationship exists between the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar…Riyadh will never forgive the Muslim Brotherhood for…educating and mobilizing two generations of radicalized Saudi subjects” and “siding with Saddam Hussein in 1990.”

Haykel argues that Qatar’s bond with the Brotherhood has allowed it to project significant influence in Tunisia, Egypt, with Hamas, and increasingly in Syria–influence that, along with perceived successes abroad, is leveraged into greater legitimacy at home. In contrast, Saudi Arabia has used extensive financial expenditures and repression to quell unrest. Haykel concludes that although Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s “tactics differ, their strategy seems unified. They seek to use their wealth as an instrument of their foreign policy, shaping the external environment in order to secure their internal one. So far, they are succeeding.”