Amid Fears of Massacre, Ex-UN Observer Says Assad’s Fall is Inevitable

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As Syrian troops prepare to renew their assault on the northern city of Aleppo, the U.S. Department of State has said it fears that government forces are preparing to carry out a massacre. The former head of the U.N. Observer mission to Syria, however, believes that the fall of Bashar al-Assad is inevitable. Major General Robert Mood told Reuters, “In my opinion it is only a matter of time before a regime that is using such heavy military power and disproportional violence against the civilian population is going to fall.”

However, the fight between rebels and government forces, which Mood characterized as “David versus Goliath,” may not bring an end to the conflict. According to Peter Apps, many foreign powers doubt that the disorder will end with the exit of Assad. “His Alawite minority might well fight on,” wrote Apps, “if only to try to protect itself against the ethnic backlash that could follow his fall. The wider state – including the mainstream army left largely unused in favor of elite Alawite units – could collapse.”

Meanwhile, According to opposition forces, Syrian lawmaker and Baath party member Ikhlas Badawi, who represents the province of Allepo, has defected to Turkey. Badawi, who was part of the widely criticized May parliamentary elections, was chosen by authorities to run for parliament on behalf of  state backed labor and farmers unions. She told reporters, “I have crossed to Turkey and defected from this tyrannical regime … because of the repression and savage torture against a nation demanding the minimum of rights.”

In addition, David Pollock reported on a trip to meet with over 100 Syrian opposition figures. Summarizing his four main observations he wrote, “First, one of my strongest impressions is that things are not what they seem. It is very difficult on the ground to be sure who it is that you are really talking to and what they represent. Second, Turkish officials maintain a striking degree of control over Syrian opposition forces inside Turkey. Third, the Muslim Brotherhood is pervasive not only within the Syrian National Council (SNC), but among many opposition groups – mostly outside Syria. Lastly, there is a striking cynicism and anger among fighters within Syria toward the outside world for not providing enough practical support.”