Yemen Unstable Before Presidential Elections

A Yemeni soldier was reported dead when unidentified gunmen opened fire after an explosion went through a polling station in Aden. Government security forces were deployed to the area in anticipation of mass protests on election day. The Southern Movement, a separatist group, “has called on its supporters to boycott Tuesday’s election in which Vice-President Abd Rabbou Mansour al-Hadi will be the only candidate,” and some armed members have been arrested by security forces to ameliorate potential violence. Although only one soldier died in Aden, “three soldiers were also wounded in a clash with southern separatists near a polling booth in the southern Lahij province in the same day.” Though Hadi has gotten vocal support from President Barack Obama, there have been concerns that Yemen will follow in Egypt’s path and have a government that continues to be ruled by the military. ”The new government should more actively engage with youth, the Houthis and the Southern Movement. The political process will remain in jeopardy if these constituencies remain outside the political process,” said U.N. Yemen envoy Jamal Benomar.

Continuing to add to the instability of Yemen, a rift in the armed forces between outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh‘s relatives and a defected army general threatens to spoil political transition and tip Yemen into war. ”In November we were on the brink of civil war,” said Mohammed Abulahoum, a former official in Saleh’s party who quit to form his own. “Now we have a political settlement that should close the door on Saleh and his family for ever.” Although Saleh would no longer be in power after the elections, he has strong allies that surrounded him during his rule who could still have strong influences in the government. ”Saleh might not rule the country but he could still play kingmaker,” said Abdullah Al-Faqih, a professor of political science at Sanaa University. “He still has his ruling party, a son commanding the armed forces and allies holding the key ministries, he remains a political force to be reckoned with.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein has warned of increased Iranian activity in Yemen that is taking advantage of the unstable nation. As Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the al Qaeda branch in Yemen, continues to be destabilize the country, Feierstein said, “We do definitely see a rise in Iranian finance, efforts on the part of Iran to increase its influence not only with Zaydi Shia elements but with Sunni elements as well.”