POMED Notes: One Year Later: Has the Arab Spring Lived Up to Expectations?
On Thursday, the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University hosted a panel on the progression of the Arab Spring one year out. The speakers were John Esposito, university professor and founding director of the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, Heba Raouf Ezzat, a professor in political theory at Cairo University, and Radwan Ziadeh, a fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. The event was moderated by Farid Senzai, director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.
For full event notes, continue reading below. Or click here for a full text of the PDF
Farid Senzai started off detailing the progression of events leading up to the Arab Spring, and that no one, academics, policymakers, or even the protestors, expected the scale, or success of the protest. While some countries have experienced regime change and elections, others are still mired in violence. Proposing his first question to the panelist, Senzai asked their reflections on what has happened since the Arab Spring and what the future holds.
The entire panel agreed they did not expect the Arab Spring to occur, while their opinions varied on the final outcome of the “revolutions” that began a year ago. Esposito said that Tunisia was the first country to oust its authoritarian leader, and its continued progress should prove as a model. Tunisian society has remained balanced and, so far, there has been freedom and pluralism in its national unity. Focusing country specifically, Esposito said the biggest problem facing Egypt was the military returning power to the civilian government unimpeded, and that the process in Tunisia will rest on whether the minority parties work in the democratic process or embark on a “scorched earth campaign.”
Heba Raouf Ezzat did not feel things are going well in terms of development, and used Egypt as an initial example. While the country has experienced multiple elections, the revolution still continues on the street. The Egyptian military has not withdrawn as initially promised, and by not doing so, has allowed mistrust to creep into the democratic process. While removing President Hosni Mubarak is only considered the tip of the iceberg in the “deep security state,” not addressing the social economic gap between poor and rich, with those benefitting under Mubarak continuing to rule, is problematic. Ezzat felt that by not addressing those issues, Egypt has not experienced a significant change since the revolution.
Radwan Ziadeh broke the Arab Spring into two different types. There were the “uprisings” in Tunisia and Egypt, and the “revolutions” in Libya and Yemen. Libya was considered the true revolution because there were no previous state institutions, a centralized government, and with the Libyans “finding their voice” they will need to create everything from scratch. Ziadeh was concerned as to how this militarization will affect the future civil process.
Senzai posed a question asking the panelists their thoughts on the Islamist winning a majority of the seats in all the elections they participated in. Esposito credited the Islamist victories to the lack of political parties that were allowed to form under the dictators. If a person wanted to vote against the regime, the Islamic parties were the only outlet. The political climate in the Arab Spring countries now favors the political parties that were viewed as a symbol of resistance under the previous institutions. Ezzat believes the victories are yielded from the degree of trust people place in their politicians, and hold those with religious beliefs in a higher regard. A benefit that Ezzat sees with the current democratic process is Islamist have not monopolized the dialogue, partly due to the younger generation not being concerned with criticizing them. Ziadeh said the Islamist did not organize the uprisings but have benefitted the most, partly due to being the most recognized opposition of the regimes.
In the question and answer session, Ziadeh responded that President Basar al-Assad has isolated the country, and economic sanctions will adversely affect the population, only direct intervention will cause him to step down. Ziadeh believes a coalition needs to be formed to move past the U.N. Security Council’s failed vote, something along the lines of what previously took place in Kosovo. Esposito felt the lack of international action leveled at Syria and Yemen involves the fear of what will follow those fallen leaders. Esposito felt a majority of the action needs to come from a strong unified Arab League, or at the least, a strong Gulf State presence. In closing, Ezzat responded that the international community could best support the Arab Spring with funding education, libraries, and scholarships, without any interference in the democratic process. Esposito believes there should be an easing of military assistance, while IMF and in-country private investment should fund education, the technology, and economic sector to assist with continued democratization.
