POMED Notes: Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution: One Year Later
On Friday, the Middle East Institute hosted Ashraf Khalil, journalist and author of Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation, published by St. Martin’s Press on January 3, 2012 .Khalil analyzed the status quo in Egypt today and reasons for both optimism and pessimism as the country enters its second year of the post-Mubarak era.
For more on this event, continue reading below, or click here for the PDF
On Friday, the Middle East Institute hosted Ashraf Khalil, journalist and author of Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation, published by St. Martin’s Press on January 3, 2012 .Khalil analyzed the status quo in Egypt today and reasons for both optimism and pessimism as the country enters its second year of the post-Mubarak era.
Ashraf Khalil introduced the lecture by defining the current Egyptian situation as “mystifying.” He described a fluid and complex situation over the past months. He reminded the audience that while protests were still going on in October and November in 2011, polling offices were settled and credible elections led to the merge of a Constituent Assembly.
Khalil moved on to the “Golden Age of the Revolution,” the 18 days before former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on February 11th 2011. As a witness of the events, he remembered how the protesters were self-disciplined, cleaning up the square, organizing the security and avoiding sexual harassment. However, as soon as the President was ousted, the atmosphere changed and became “depressing.” Months after these events, the assessment was that the Tunisian revolution was a clear success whileEgypt was still struggling despite elections and the set-up of democratic institutions. According to Khalil, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) is the main reason explaining whyEgypt’s post-revolution process is not going smoothly. InTunisia, “the army is just an army,” and guarantees the defense of the state against main national threat. InEgypt, the army spreads out from its role boundaries, holds executive power and is an important economic actor for the country. Despite the recent elections, the SCAF succeeded to force political organizations, notably the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), to negotiate with it.
Khalil proposed then his pessimistic and optimistic perspectives concerningEgypt’s future. The reasons for pessimism are first the split of the country according to different groups. The activists are still taking the streets and maintaining pressure on the political institutions. They are seen by local media as “fanatic, and standing on the way of stability.” Khalil stated that the last clashes in November and December were unpopular; however the protesters succeeded to get two important concessions from the SCAF: it would organize the Presidential elections in June 2012 instead of January 2013 and it would leave power.
Khalil also pointed out the failure of the “interpersonal behavior.” He regretted that the good conduct that he witnessed during the ‘18 days’ did not last. He first blamed Mubarak’s regime, which implemented a corrosive atmosphere declining citizens’ trust in their fellows and in the state’s institutions. The institutions were highly corrupted. In addition, Khalil complained about the lack of respect for the “idea of community.” The lecturer blamed theU.S.for its policy favoring ‘stability’ instead of ‘democracy’ because of the fear of Islamists. However “stability was not stable,” and now theU.S.should back the people’s will to choose the leader as a promise of stability. Khalil does not consider the rise of Islamists as a reason for pessimism. The MB wants the Presidential elections to be held soon, because it assumes that it will win, however, the lecturer asserted that in the long-term, secularism will increase its influence on the political scene. The MB is not Salafists, it is pragmatic and its political agenda will be so. Nevertheless, the Salafists were the biggest surprise of the Parliament elections as they won nearly 30 percent of the seats. But the lecturer anticipated a decline of the party and could not really imagine a close coalition with the MB as the Salafists “annoy” them.
According to Khalil, the major reason for optimism is thatEgyptis entering in a point of no return. Egyptian people will not tolerate the rise of an authoritarian regime anymore and claim for democracy.
The audience asked about the raid against the American NGOs in December 2011. Khalil admitted his surprise to the hard reaction from the SCAF. He believed that the purpose of arresting foreign NGOs was to hide attacks against local pro-democratic NGOs. Khalil also suggested that the SCAF believed that these foreign workers were spies. Finally, he called the army to be “just an army,” stepping back from executive power, and accepting to dismantle its economic assets and properties. The army should not even have a veto on foreign affairs as it is currently trying to negotiate.
