POMED Notes: The United States and Egypt: Between Islamists and Generals

On Friday, the Women’s Foreign Policy Group hosted a panel on the relationship of the United States and Egypt by examining what the ruling leadership of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) means for the future of Egyptian society, and U.S. policy. The speaker was Michele Dunne, director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. The panel was moderated by Patricia Ellis, president of the Women’s Foreign Policy Group.

For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF

Dunne addressed three evolutions within the Egyptian political structure – political developments and party competition, unhealthy influences of the SCAF, and the position of U.S. military aid towards Egypt- that have taken place since the transfer of power to the military leadership. These changes will force leaders, in both countries, to reassess future relations at a time when neither side wants to engage the issue.

When the SCAF first assumed the mantle of power they lifted the long-held restrictions on political party formation. In turn, this allowed the formation of 50 political parties, 27 of which ran for governmental positions, and 15 won seats. Dunne felt the first round of elections exemplified real attempts at transparency by the SCAF, a reason why the Egyptian population broadly accepts their legitimacy, but she feels the military is now acting as an unhealthy influence on Egyptian politics.

Dunne believes that since the SCAF has ruled Egypt there has been a mismanagement of the country, both economically and within civil society, and they are now attempting to manipulate the transition of power. After a year in power, the SCAF has gone through more than half of the Egyptian reserve, and is now seeking a loan in the 11^th hour from the International Monetary Fund to avoid hyper-inflation, or a currency collapse. More startling has been the military’s campaign against civil society. The recent raids focused at NGO’s, U.S. and Egyptian, that promote democracy and rule of law are an effort of the military to limit transparency.

Dunne said the recent actions of the SCAF have placed the U.S. in a difficult position. The recent acts of the SACF against Egyptian civil society make it entirely possible for Congress not to approve the 1.3 billion dollars of aid given to the Egyptian military. Dunne believes the Egyptian military has not adhered to the certification process, but feels restricting aid to Egypt in the current transition, while not doing so in the Mubarak era, sends a discordant message on supporting an emerging democracy.

In response to a question on the future of women’s rights in Egypt, Dunne responded that 70 percent of parliament being held by Islamists will be an issue, but the Muslim Brotherhood understands there are certain “red lines” within the U.S. interest, women’s rights being one of those. Dunne addressed the rebalancing of the 1.3 billion dollars of Egyptian aid and felt this has turned into a contentious issue for both sides. While the aid has not kept pace with inflation, Egyptians feel the aid ties their hands and is a bribe, while U.S. counterparts want to get results for the payments. As a counter, Europe should offer fewer restrictions on trade to Egypt. While re-examining Egyptian military aid the U.S. needs to broaden beyond mostly focusing on Egypt’s relationship with Israel. Dunne closed with an assessment that the Egyptian public has had “an overdose on leadership” and this aversion to not wanting to be viewed as seeking power led to no one wanting to proclaim a leader.