On Tuesday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the United-States (IISS-US) hosted a round table followed by a discussion. The round table dealt with the Arab World perspective regarding the upheaval in Syria, particularly from the Gulf approach. The lecturer was Mr. Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the IISS-Middle East in Manama, Bahrain. The moderator was Mr. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East.

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Hokayem focused on two key points: Gulf Statesobserving the events in Syriaas an opportunity for their influence policy in the region, and the growing sectarian dimension of the Syrian crisis. Nevertheless, these two factors are closely related. The lecturer first wanted to draw the audience’s attention to how the Gulf diplomacy, vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis, has evolved through time, focusing on the sectarianism perspective.

The crisis in Syria announced opportunities for the Gulf  States, notably for Saudi Arabia. During the 2006 crisis in Lebanon, Syria came out victorious from a confrontation with Israel. The diminishing position of  Syriain the region could provide more opportunities for the Gulf actors dealing with Israel. Hokayem considered that for a long time Hamas was supported by Syria; but as Assad’s regime weakens they may seek out others sponsors and possible role in which Gulf States could file. Hokayem also reminded the audience that the bad relations between the Gulf  States and Syriawere nourished by provocative comments from President Bashar al-Assad, when he called the Arab leaders “half-men.” However, Hokayem insisted that Syria used to have strong relations with Qatar, alluding to the role the kingdom played to improve Syria’s image after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

The diplomacy from Gulf countries towards Syria has changed with the evolution of the revolution. First, the countries felt less concerned about Syria than the uprisings in Bahrain or Libya. Then, they were surprised to see the upheaval going. Until August 2011, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain delivered supporting messages to Syria.

Hokayem pointed out different propositions formulated until by the Gulf to find a solution in the crisis. They proposed their political and capital support if Assad would enlarge Syria’s government and shift away from its close ally, Iran. Turkey and Qatar encouraged to an ouverture. In the end,Syria rejected calls for change.

After continued unrest other countries in the region began to change their position towards Syria Turkey accused Syria of assaults directed against the Sunni community. Qatar closed its embassy in Damascus in July and contributed to Syria growing international isolation. The decisive shift happened in response to the Syrian regime’s escalation of violence during Ramadan and inevitably causes the Gulf States to break diplomatic relations. In August, Saudi King Abdullah, in a very popular speech for the Syrians, called for the end of the violence.

Hokayem discussed several suggestions that the Arab States and the Gulf  States could express to contribute to the end of the Syrian crisis. First, the lecturer emphasized that the Arab League pushing for a peaceful power transition was a significant shift in its diplomacy. He then proposed that the League strengthen the Syrian opposition by unifying the movement, essentially the Syrian National Council (SNC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA). In his third proposition, Hokayem suggested thatSaudi Arabia welcome President Assad and give him assets, though he admitted that the President would certainly not accept. Moreover, the Gulf countries could lead talks with Russia and Chinato and convince them of a multinational response. They could also search for support from South Africa, India, Pakistan and Morocco which are currently members of the U.N. Security Council to bring the U.N. to address the Syrian crisis. However,Russia is strongly linked to Syria, plus maintains dear relations withQatar.

Hokayem concluded that the Syrian crisis could be the beginning of “a new chapter for Saudi Arabia diplomacy” in the region where the kingdom could be more influential. However he noticed that the Saudis still do not know very well the local actors in Syria, especially the opposition, which may limit Saudi action.

The audience asked several questions on the evolution that Hokayem can predict about the Syrian crisis. He reckoned the Syrian regime has the means to sustain itself for a while. It has loyal soldiers and a wide range of powerful weapons. On the other hand, the assets of the regime decrease as the economy is blocked (no electricity, no tourism, no trade etc). On the possibility of an international intervention, Hokayem said that it could limit a spreading risk of instability in the region, but it should occur before the violence in Syria became overwhelming (sectarian violence, Kurdish conflict, violence spreading out of Syrian borders etc.) A question was asked concerning the Gulf perception on U.S. policy on Syria. Hokayem responded the policy was firstly seen as “floated” until the U.S. believed that the regime would fall.