POMED Notes: Yemen’s Awakening: Reporting from Change Square, Sanaa

Last Thursday, The New America Foundation held a panel discussion about the revolution in Yemen and the implications of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s resignation from office and the formation of a new government. Program Associate Jonathan Guyer of the New America Foundation moderated the discussion panel, which consisted of Laura Kasinof, Yemen correspondent for The New York Times, and Mohammed Albasha spokesman for the Embassy of the Republic of Yemen.

For full event notes continue reading, or click here for the pdf.

Guyer introduced the panel and discussed the need for more public attention on the situation in Yemen and briefly noted the importance of the outcomes in Yemen in terms of its effect on American foreign policy in a number of areas including the issue of terrorism. Guyer then allowed for both panelists to give opening remarks followed by a question and answer session from the audience.

Kasinof was the first to speak and discussed the situation in Yemen vis-à-vis her experience as a correspondent living and working in Yemen itself. Kasinof noted that “Yemen has reached a new level of chaos that is very worrisome…there is very little area in which the Yemeni government does have control.” Kasinof described the GCC initiative and its effects as merely “a re-shuffling of elites” without addressing the real demand for reform. Kasinof then went on to discuss the fact that the revolution started out with young people and student groups protesting and that a vast array of ideologies were present among the protesters ranging from Islamists to socialists. She also noted that considering how armed the entire Yemeni population is, the revolution has been surprisingly peaceful. Kasinof also spoke of the city of Taiz and how Taiz -having a more well-educated and political class of people- was being especially punished by the Yemeni government for their participation in the revolution and because of this, Yemeni tribes from the surrounding area entered the city to help defend its people against government troops. Furthermore, Kasinof felt that the armed elites were “using the protesters as pawns and tools and when protesters got killed it was viewed badly by the international community and so the regime caught on and stopped shooting protesters. Some protesters have left because they were tired of being pawns in a three-way tussle between General Ali Mohsen al’Ahmar, Abdullah Ali Saleh, and Hamid al’Ahmar.” Kasinof concluded that in the case of Taiz, the fact that government troops are all from the North has revived old wounds over the North-South divide and as such there is the potential for further fracturing of Yemeni society. Mohammad further expressed concern over what he dubbed as the “Somalization” of Yemen, of “warlords trying to carve out territory from the homeland.” He also noted that while the youth started this revolution, they “failed to create a proper political platform.” He also admitted that there have been a lot of human rights violations, “there were a lot of mistakes made in the beginning of the uprising, the government did not protect protesters and so tribal militants entered the conflict.” Mohammad also noted with extreme concern that there has been a breakdown in social services and the prospect of famine looms large. He also admitted that “at least 3 provinces are not under the control of the Yemeni government frankly” including Abayaan region, where there are over one thousand fighters battling government forces.

After opening statements, questions were taken from the audience. Questions ranged from what the U.S. government and the international community can do to help Yemen to terrorism policy in Yemen. Kasinof noted that any help that would help “get the guns off the streets” and help demilitarize Yemeni society would go a long way to help bring peace to Yemen. Mohammad expressed his support for the GCC initiative and said it was the best deal currently on the table and said elections in 2013 would be very important. Mohammad further stressed that the GCC initiative called for “national dialogue” and he expressed hope that such dialogue would lead to a stable peace within Yemeni society. Regarding terrorism, Kasinof noted that no one in Sanaa was overly concerned with the death of American born Al-Qaeda leader Anwar al’Awlaki. Mohammad pointed out that Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur al’Hadi was the first Yemeni official to acknowledge that US drones were operating in Yemen. Furthermore, he noted that there are

Other questions focused on whether there were things Yemeni leaders could do to allow private sector growth to occur within the country. Another question asked was whether there was renewed interest in secession in the South. In response to the former, Mohammad said plainly, “that without security there can be no prosperity.” Regarding a renewed push for a secessionist movement, Mohammad responded that some of the demands of those who wish for secession were in fact legitimate and that the next government must deal with these issues in a pragmatic fashion. He concluded by noting that in his opinion “if the next government has a sort of federated state-system I think this is the best system going forward… you cannot run Yemen in the current centralized format. I can respect the struggle of the youth and the secessionists but they need a political plan, they need plan B and work with the realities on the ground.” Kasinof concluded that it is “very difficult to predict what is going to happen in Yemen…[but] I think everyone realizes that the situation in Yemen isn’t over yet.”