POMED Notes: The Arab Spring: Implications for US Policy and Interests

On Thursday, the Middle East Institute in concert with Freedom House hosted a discussion panel on the implications of the Arab Spring for US policy and interests in the Middle East region. The discussion panel was also charged with introducing a planned and authored by numerous scholars in cooperation with MEI entitled, The Arab Spring: Implications for US Policy and Interests. Discussants on the panel were scholars who participated in the planning and writing of the policy paper, including; Alan Keiswetter, scholar and principle coordinator and author of the policy paper, Charles Dunne, Director of the MENA division at Freedom House, Amb. Arthur Hughes, Amb. Molly Williamson, and Kate Seelye, Vice President of MEI who moderated the panel. Discussants were allowed to give opening statements followed by questions taken from the audience.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

Keiswetter was the first to speak and made a few remarks about the Arab Spring in general and its impact on American power in the region- specifically that American power had been weakened in the region and “that there are key limits to American power in the region.”  Keiswetter notes that the Arab Spring has posed some challenges for the United States and it’s traditional allies in the region, especially the Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, Keiswetter asserts, “that our common interests are stronger then our disagreements. We will continue to have strong relationships with these countries.” On terrorism, Keiswetter discussed the fact that the Arab Spring “has shown the bankruptcy of the Al’Qaeda ideology” but the ensuing chaos in the region as a result of the dramatic changes taking place could be taken advantage of by groups like Al’Qaeda. Keiswetter also noted that “there is no higher revolutionary factor then unemployed educated male youth. This is the result of decades of bad leadership but now, a 20-30 year old can help stage a revolution through the use of the internet and social media.” Finally, Keiswetter stated that promotion of democracy is a strong U.S. interest, but that the governments who come to power through a democratic process won’t necessarily be governments the United States finds itself naturally aligned with; “we will have to ‘walk and chew gum’ at the same time” notes Keiswetter.

Hughes was the next to speak and discussed the implications of the Arab Spring for peace negotiations and the general change in geopolitical strategies as a result of the changes in the region. In his opinion, the prospects for peace between Israel and the Arab world weren’t optimistic before the Arab Spring.  Hughes asked the question of what are the Israeli perceptions of the Arab Spring and discussed how Israel organizes its national security. According to Hughes, Israel organizes its national security along four basic principles: 1) a strong military; 2) a qualitative technological edge; 3) nuclear capabilities; 4) and the US commitment to Israel’s security. According to Hughes, Israel has stepped up its cooperation with the Palestinian Authority security forces has gone well and is also allowing for the development of Palestinian institutions and an embryonic State. Still, Hughes notes that the Arab Spring has brought changes to the Israeli landscape since January of this year. Hughes notes that the revolution in Egypt and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood as the main benefactor of the fall of Mubarak is a “clear gain for Hamas and a loss for Israel.” He also notes that the situation in Syria is very serious and could also have a large impact on the peace process.

Williamson was next to speak and mostly discussed oil and its place within the Arab Spring narrative. Williamson noted that “the planet currently consumes more then 88million barrels a day of oil…[and that] forty percent of all oil comes from the Middle East” and goes through three different channels to reach prospective markets, one of them being the Suez canal. Williamson also noted that the projection for demand shows an increase of thirty-five to forty-five percent, which will mostly come from dynamic countries in East Asia. Still, Williamson points out that close to a third of all oil produced in the Middle East is being used by the producing countries themselves, who are using more oil to develop themselves. Furthermore, Williamson states that “there is no silver bullet for the issue of oil” and that “the focus on traditional hydrocarbons will increase in the near future.” Williamson then pivoted to the issue of employment and a government’s ability to meet the demand of its population, which is why Williamson points out that sixty percent of the region’s population is under 30 and the largest swath are under 18 and without jobs; “those who can respond to these demands, have been able to forestall greater unhappiness.” She further points out that “we are seeing a greater emphasis in oil producing countries to develop their own societies and educational opportunities.”

Dunne was the last to speak and noted that he felt the world was watching “a fourth wave of democratization” within the MENA region. Dunne also stressed that “the political compact between the rulers and the ruled has changed fundamentally, no longer can rulers simply take the people for granted- no longer can the United States take these people for granted either.” Dunne also discussed how the definition of what it means to be a legitimate ruler has changed and how more and more, people want to see leaders go through a democratic process and the individual can use mass action, mass political action in the streets to effect political change much faster then in the past. Still, Dunne explains that mass action of this sort also has its limits and that “unless there is effective political movements to channel this action, then these changes are diminished somewhat.”  Dunne also stressed that governments “are increasingly wily and cunning in adapting their strategies to deal with these situations…usually through a mix of “pho-reform”, and the ability of rulers to adapt to electronic social action.” Dunne also highlighted the increasing ability to track and crackdown on online activism. Dunne then pivoted to the discussion of women and their role in the latest revolutions and their prominent role in all the revolution thus far, but “how do we extend their participation in these movements and in terms of change?” Lastly, Dunne stated that he thought the Middle East would be looking at “the ushering in of more representative governments and greater stability and peace between neighbors.” In terms of how this will impact U.S. interests in the region, Dunne stressed that when the U.S. can help to shape change it should do so to either minimize damage to U.S. interests or to help promote U.S. interests as well if it can.

After opening statements questions were taken from the audience that range from further elaboration on the role of women to how to US can help shape the change currently happening within the region. Regarding women, Dunne discussed the need to build civic society capacity in numerous countries where women have had prominent roles. Dunne further expressed his hope that the suddenly politically active role women in the region are playing would be solidified and gave some examples from Libya, Bahrain and Egypt. Regarding what the U.S. can do, Hughes was quick to point out that the Arab Spring, these revolutions were “their revolutions, their countries, their futures, we (the USA) cannot lead on this. Americans like to tell people what to do, it’s in our nature to do this.” Dunne also stated that while “they (the US administration) doesn’t want to take over these revolutions and put an American stamp on it…[but] there are cases where vigorous American diplomacy is needed, such as Egypt.”