POMED Notes: “Elections and Reform in Morocco and Tunisia”
On Wednesday, the Brookings Institution hosted an event entitled “Elections and Reform in Morocco and Tunisia.” Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Daniel L. Byman moderated the event. The panel included President of The Maghreb Center Nejib Ayachi, Assistant Professor of International Relations at McDaniel College Anouar Boukhars, and Ph.D. Candidate at Georgetown University Sarah Yerkes.
For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.
Byman introduced the panel by stating that while democratic change in the region is still uncertain, a glimmer of hope still shines in North Africa. The two case-studies for the event’s discussion were Tunisia, which has pursued the route of elections toward transition, and Morocco, where top-down reform has dominated.
Ayachi began his remarks by giving introductory information about Tunisia, noting the strength of its national unity, its ethnic and religious homogeneity, the lack of tribal-based social systems, and the history of secularism. He added that while Tunisia has experienced financial growth, this growth was accompanied by deepened inequalities, especially to the exclusion of youth and Tunisians in the hinterland. “Transition from above,” Ayachi said, was simply not accepted by Tunisians demanding “genuine change.”
Ayachi then recounted the results of Tunisia’s October 23 Constituent Assembly elections, citing the victory of Islamist party Ennahda. He claimed that Ennahda’s success was due to its cultivation of “informal family networks,” as well as its employment of “conservative discourse to reassure people” who were concerned about an uncertain future. Ayachi added that the example of Ennahda proves that “Islamists have evolved,” preferring a “strategy based on compromise” with more liberal, secular parties. Ennahda, with its leader’s intentions to “make [Tunisia] a democratic model for the region,” has also adapted its rhetoric to the social, political, and economic context in Tunisia.
Then, Boukhars spoke about Morocco, stating that “after Tunisia’s landmark elections, it’s time for Morocco to replicate” the success, but such a replication will be difficult, as people in Morocco are not as “motivated” as Tunisians were. “Pluralities are still skeptical” that an election will usher in a drastic change from the status quo. Tunisia shares similarities with Morocco, however, in that Islamist forces are expected to fare well in Morocco’s elections. The Justice and Development Party (PJD), Boukhars argued, is an “election favorite.” He predicted that voter turnout in Morocco’s case would be much lower than that in Tunisia, given the lack of trust among Moroccans for political parties. The July 1 constitutional referendum brought new laws that give parliament the opportunity to play a more assertive role in government, and the turnout for the referendum was relatively high. Voting for political parties is different from voting in a constitution referendum, Boukhars added, and in the case of the former, the “enthusiasm of the electorate is not there.”
Boukhars also mentioned several possible outcomes of Morocco’s parliamentary elections, asserting that concern that the PJD will win a vast majority is “overblown.” One reason the PJD will not fare as well as some analysts predict, he said, is that the Islamist vote is divided between the PJD and the Justice and Charity Party, an illegal but tolerated Islamist group more popular than the PJD in rural areas. Furthermore, “districting laws disadvantage Islamists.” If the PJD were to win, it would likely experience great difficulty in forming a coalition to govern, effectively lending credence to the claims that voting will fail to change the political landscape in Morocco. Boukhars added that given the new constitutional reforms, political parties have an “unprecedented opportunity” to push for democratic reform. He also noted that “transitional period[s]” are naturally characterized by “limited levels of democracy,” but “as political competition becomes” the routine, “levels of democracy will be drawn up.” The most important factor differentiating Morocco from Tunisia, Boukhars said, is that the Moroccan King Muhammad “still enjoys enormous legitimacy and popularity.”
Yerkes then discussed the question of women’s rights in a government dominated by Islamist parties as well as the implications of continued economic troubles for the success of political transition. In reference to Tunisia, Yerkes asserted that the U.S. must “pay careful attention” to ensure that Ennahda follows through with its promises to protect the virtually-equal rights of women. With regard to the threat posed to the transition by economic unrest, Yerkes argued that the U.S. must pursue a policy of political reform coupled with economic efforts. Joining economic and political projects, she claimed, would help counter instability.
A positive development in Morocco, Yerkes added, is the quota for youth. Among the lessons to be learned from Tunisia is that “elections can be carried out” in a relatively short time frame, without excessive fraud, and with high voter participation. Tunisia also proves that the military can serve as the “guardian of the process” of transition so long as the norm involves its return to the barracks. Furthermore, there needs to be a “long-term political culture change” that cannot be accomplished by elections. The way in which the U.S. has approached its relationship with Ennahda in Tunisia “shows that the U.S. is willing to work with moderate Islamist parties” as long as these parties “play by the rules.” Yerkes predicted that these Islamist parties are best suited to win elections in the short term.
During the question and answer session, the panelists agreed that Ennahda would likely not secure “41 percent” of the coming year’s vote, considering the challenges of governing and satisfying the population during a time of transition. Yerkes also reiterated her claim that Tunisia can serve as a model for the region and the international community by demonstrating the importance of joining political training and reform to human development. The State Department’s Office of Transition Initiatives is uniquely poised with executing this task, Yerkes added. Finally, Ayachi argued that the economies of North Africa would “fare much better” if they were integrated through a regional body.
