POMED Notes: “Tunisia, Act 2″

On Monday, SAIS hosted numerous panelists to discuss the upcoming free elections in Tunisia, the “Arab Spring” in general, and what panelists saw next for Tunisia. Kurt Volker, managing director of Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) moderated the panel discussion, which included: Mohamed Salah Tekaya, Tunisian ambassador to the United States, Tamara Wittes, deputy assistant secretary for Near Eastern Affairs and deputy special coordinator for Middle East Transitions at the State Department, Mohamed Ali Malouche, president of the Tunisian American Young Professionals, Breis De Schetere, representing the European Union, Daniele Moro, visiting scholar for the Center for Transatlantic Relations and Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy.

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Moro opened up the panel with a brief introduction followed by a discussion of his experience traveling through Tunisia and remarking that it was amazing to watch a country “that has never experienced democracy before” transition towards a democratic system. Moro also spent some time discussing the uniqueness of Tunisian society with its almost “European” liberalness, and yet also there are conservative undertones that remain present.

McInerney spoke next and discussed how there is a real dearth of information within the English language media regarding the elections and to that effect, his organization had published a simple guide to the Tunisia elections. McInerney went on to discuss the issue of political polling within Tunisia and how it being a new phenomena, its not clear how accurate the polling is and whether there may be several unforeseen factors that will lead to surprising electoral results. McInerney stated that he personally believed that the leading Islamic political party, El’Nahda would not win an outright majority. He did state however the biggest danger of the elections was if the major political parties reject the results of the election as not credible, “a lot of smaller parties may say they were cheated, but if the biggest parties think its fair is should be ok.” McInerney noted that as the political parties have come closer to the day of the election, they have become more realistic in terms of their parties’ chances in the elections. Lastly, McInerney noted that it was probable the election would result in a fragmented constituent assembly in which there would be a split between leftist and Islamic parties.

Tekaya was next to speak and spoke of how the elections were a historic event for Tunisia and would provide “an opportunity to shape the future of the country.” The ambassador also noted “Many new civil society organizations have been created…numerous periodicals have been created. There is free discussion, restrictions on the free press have been lifted” and yet he acknowledged that his country still face many challenges. The ambassador stressed that the transitional government “want[s] to make sure the elections are organized and transparent in a credible way. The success of elections will have far reaching impact on the success of the country. We are hoping to move forward with everything and see a good transition in Tunisia.”

Malouche was the next to speak and spoke about the importance of economic prosperity in ensuring a good democratic transition. He spoke about the challenges the youth of Tunisia faced, including the economic situation: “I think its important for the next government to really… implement visible economic measure to mollify the youth and ensure that there is a path towards steady growth.” He also expressed the need for a way to introduce young Tunisians to entrepreneurship and the need for seed money to help fund such entrepreneurial endeavors- that he also felt could benefit both the U.S. and Tunisia.

Wittes was next to speak and discussed how “getting Tunisia right” was very important both in terms of U.S. regional strategy, but also to the benefit of the region as a whole. Wittes noted that before the revolution, the U.S. “had only 2 million dollars in independent grants to help a few Tunisians struggling in this oppressive environment [under Ben Ali].” Now after the revolution, Wittes stated that the U.S. sees “potential not only in partnering between governments, but also partnerships at the business and civil society levels.” Wittes also mentioned the return of the Peace Corps to Tunisia, and how it was a “potent symbol of how the US partners with countries…and a symbol of lasting partnership.” Wittes also noted the need to create quick economic growth, and the possible role the U.S. could play in helping to ensure that happened. Wittes concluded by stating that the main resource of Tunisia was its people and that the main role of the U.S. “is to listen.”

Lastly, Schetere concluded opening statements by discussing how the EU could help Tunisia going forward. Schetere noted that, “Tunisia is at the forefront of democracy and transition in the Arab world so it’s important that Tunisia go well.” He also stated that it was crucial that the EU increase trade and liberalization of trade between the EU and Tunisia “to put Tunisia on the economic map” and that the EU looks forward to a “deep and comprehensive trade agreement” between Tunisia and the EU. Lastly, Schetere discussed the need to develop a good relationship between the people of the EU and Tunisia, specifically the helping to develop relationships and partnerships between intellectuals, students, academics and businessmen from Tunisia and the EU. Schetere also mentioned the EU would be interested in providing support to Tunisian civil society organizations.

After opening statements, the panel was opened up to questions from the audience. Questions focused a discussion of potential election outcomes, what if the worst should happen and election results were rejected or a fragmented constituent assembly could not agree on a coalition government. Takeya stated that “there has to be consensus for the future, common understanding within Tunisian society is needed. There are difficulties along the way but we were able to come together and reach consensus.” McInerney also noted there had been promising signs over the past few weeks in terms of coalition building and noted that, “once those coalitions start to form, there will be a desire by other parties not to be left out. There should be more willingness after the elections then before to see eye to eye and compromise.”

Other questions focused on whether there was a disconnect between American values and American strategic interests (in the Middle East), and if this was the case, what should the U.S. do to fix this contradiction. Wittes stated that the “strategic imperative is to support democratic transitions across the region…that is the policy the president implemented in May and the policy we stick to. We feel supporting democratic transition is helpful [to our national interests].”