POMED Notes: “Into the Syrian Revolution”

On Wednesday, the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted a discussion entitled “Into the Syrian Revolution.” The event featured Radwan Ziadeh, director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies and a member of the Syrian National Council (SNC), and Ammar Abdulhamid, founder of the Tharwa Foundation and a human rights activist.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

Abdulhamid began the discussion by outlining the current situation in Syria’s ongoing unrest, which he believes is undergoing a militarization phase due to the Assad regime’s unyielding oppression and a growing sense that nonviolence is not working. He added that Bashar Al’Assad is clinging to his narrow base of support, and is no longer concerned about maintaining his image in the international community. He views the Free Syria Army as a legitimate force to challenge government forces, but maintains that the lack of support from the SNC and the international community has stunted its progress. As a result, Assad remains confident in his current position, and the human costs are increasing, Abdulhamid asserted.

Abdulhamid  also stated that the massacres in Homs are equivalent to the mass killings witnessed in Hama in 1982. Abdulhamid criticized the international community’s inaction in Syria, but was also critical of the SNC for not endorsing specific requests that may advance their cause and encouraged SNC members to develop a “unified and pragmatic ideology.” The revolution proves, Abdulhamid believes, that the “barrier of fear has been broken,” but if the revolution fails, sectarian rifts will widen. He predicted a protracted, low-intensity conflict for the foreseeable future, and assessed that Assad may prevail without the unification of the opposition and the international community.

Next, Radwan Ziadeh offered his assessment of the situation on the ground, stating that the will of the people must continue to face the army. He estimated that 10-20% of security forces have defected, but that a larger ratio is needed. Additionally, the regime has perpetrated unprecedented torture against prisoners to instill fear into dissenters, and many Syrians view demonstrating as a “suicide mission.” The regime has even resorted to accusing protesters, including Christians, of having links to al-Qaeda to legitimize their response. Ziadeh sees the Arab League as an integral body that may change international opinion if they choose to intervene.

Ziadeh added that the United States can play a critical role in the coming months, and that it interests would be best served to depose Assad and minimize Iranian influence in Syria. So far, Ziadeh contends, U.S. rhetoric has been positive, but there has been little action to match it. He hopes that the U.S. will work with its Arab peers while the SNC organizes more effectively to incorporate minorities and avoid sectarian language.

During a question and answer session, both panelists expanded on their presentations. Abdulhamid asserted that the past five decades of Ba’ath party rule has indoctrinated minority groups and made unification especially difficult. He also acknowledged the possibility of civil war in the future due to the deep sectarian divides, and he urged the protestors to view the unrest through a group lens, though he admitted this may be difficult due Syrians’ “broken sense of identity.” Abdulhamid said that the SNC has potential, but is “hap-hazard” at the moment and must acknowledge the realities of “this critical period,” and must revise its tactics to keep the revolution alive.

Ziadeh urged protesters to exhaust all nonviolent methods of dissent before resorting to violence, and reiterated that the international community is not meeting the needs of the Syrian people. Additionally, Syria’s enormous army presents a challenge for demonstrators, and Ziadeh stressed that the business community in Syrian does not support Assad’s regime. Abdulhamid exhorted the SNC to explain the consequences of the revolution to Syria, and suggested that an alternative to the SNC may arise. He ended by stating that external and internal opposition members have “failed our people,” but he remains hopeful for the future of the revolution.