POMED Notes: “Hezbollah in the Wake of the Arab Spring”

On Tuesday, the Middle East Institute hosted a presentation by Randa Slim, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and Levant expert, which discussed the future of Hezbollah in the context of the Arab Spring. Slim addressed the way that Hezbollah views the Arab Spring, the domestic strategies of Hezbollah in the changing landscape of the Middle East, and how the Arab Spring affected the standing of Hezbollah in the region. Kate Seelye, Vice President of the Middle East Institute gave a brief introduction and moderated the question and answer session.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.Slim began by discussing Hezbollah’s view of the ongoing conflict in Syria, contending that they believe that the outcome will be civil war or the survival of Assad’s regime, though sectarian strife is a serious concern in either scenario. The loss of Assad would represent a large blow to Hezbollah because of the close ties between the two entities, and would also harm the broader alliance with Iran. Slim labeled Syria the “lynchpin” between Hezbollah and Iran, with Iran underpinning Hezbollah’s military strategies.

At the same time, Slim suggested, Hezbollah has had to focus considerable resources on their domestic political issues to ensure that their coalition stayed intact. Slim cited the example of Hezbollah’s rejection of funding for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a commission that exists to investigate and punish the perpetrators of the assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri. Regardless of the future of Syria’s Assad, Hezbollah will remain a legitimate representative for a large portion of Lebanese people, Slim stated. She also asserted that Hezbollah is unlikely to escalate tensions with Israel because the political risks are too high.

With regards to the effects of the Arab Spring on Hezbollah, Slim believes that Hezbollah risks becoming “out of sync” with popular Arab politics. The Arab Spring “has redefined Arab politics,” she added, focusing less on the Israel-Palestine peace process, and focusing more energy on ending the rule of autocrats. In addition, Hezbollah’s close ties with Iran and Bashar al-Assad have seriously hurt its standing in the Arab street, Slim suggested.

During a question and answer session, Slim addressed a range of topics. She said there is a reasonable possibility that Iran will continue to invest in Hezbollah and may aim to forge a new alliance that includes Iraq. This may also lead to a stronger rivalry between Turkey and Iran in the coming years, according to Slim. In response to a question about the role of Saudi Arabia in the situation, Slim suggested that the Saudis had apparently not intervened in a large manner as of yet, though she acknowledged talk that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may intend to do so. Additionally, she admitted that Iran has a vested interest in the situation in Bahrain, but that Bahraini opposition had kept Iran at a distance and rejected any overtures.

When asked about United States policy during the Arab Spring and toward Hezbollah, Slim contended that it was good policy that the U.S. had not yet recognized any of the Syrian opposition before they prove to be coherently unified. She added that the best plan for the U.S. government was to urge Middle Eastern governments to provide protection for all citizens.