POMED Notes: “Saudi Arabia in the Shadow of the Arab Revolt”

On Friday, the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center held a discussion with David Ottaway, senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, with a welcome by Dr. Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, who opened the discussion by describing Ottaway’s new paper and how it relates Saudi Arabia to the Arab Spring. 

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

David Ottaway began by discussing the Arab spring in the context of Egypt and the lessons learned from their revolution. He noted the slow development of the Egyptian revolution, and that few people anticipated the revolution. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are different in many ways, such as the absence of a functioning civil society in Saudi Arabia compared to Egypt’s well-developed network of NGOs and institutions.

Ottaway discussed the notion of Saudi exceptionalism, in that Saudis feel blessed to have the two holiest sites in Islam and massive oil reserves. Many people in Saudi Arabia feel that they are above the challenge of democratization in the region, as they have a history of warding off external threats, from Arab socialism in the 1950’s and 60’s, to coping with Al-Qaeda. He added that the Saudis are confident that the ruling family can cope with outside challenges because they have “done this before,” when confronted with a hostile Gamel Abdel Nasser and revolutionary Iran.

However, Saudi exceptionalism is not impervious to social unrest. There are many discussions in the Saudi society about social problems, and he noted that the welfare state in Saudi Arabia no longer works and that real calls for change are developing. While in Saudi Arabia, Ottaway could “feel the pace of change” taking place with more pressure for reform. With this pace, Saudis are talking and complaining more within the free press, trying to swell the call for reform.

Ottaway talked about some impressions he received on his recent visit and by studying Saudi Arabia in the context of the Arab Spring. For example, the Saudi middle class is under immense economic pressure, which is a becoming a major source of dissent. He noted that “in 20 years, the average standard of living of the middle class will be cut in half.” The dynamics of change are also transforming, as the call for reform is now coming from the bottom up, instead of the ruling family.

He ended by discussing the Saudi leadership and potential problems. The Saudi king is well respected, yet his successors are not. Additionally, the current leadership is facing health and age issues, with a young society pressing for change, which puts immense pressure on the leadership to cope with the issue of succession and reform.

Dr. Haleh Esfandiari asked about the role of the Shi’a in the call for reforms in Saudi Arabia. Ottaway said that they are the most willing to take to the streets and the most confrontational because they feel ignored by the central government and believe the leadership does not take their complaints seriously. However, there is a split within the Shi’a community, as the leadership in the Eastern Province is more moderate and has called for a calming of the Shi’a youth.

A question was raised about the large block in Saudi Arabia resisting change and reform, and how they are acting in wake of the Arab spring. Ottaway noted that the religious establishment is not happy with the reforms that have taken place, especially in the realm of women’s rights. They are a very powerful force in the country and are pushing for a more Islamic state. The king is caught between the Islamists and reformists, though has conventionally gone against the religious right in reforms.