Syria: Analysts Discuss Downfall of Assad
As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad‘s crackdown continues, many analysts are questioning if the regime will fall. Andrew Tabler, with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, notes that Syria’s allies are pushing for reform, but not calling for the removal of Assad. Neighboring allies want Assad to stop the bloodshed and listen to the people, saying it is his only way out. The Obama Administration has stated that a military intervention in Syria is not a possibility, yet Tabler states that intervention could be an answer to ending the bloodshed.
Elliott Abrams, with the Council on Foreign Relations, describes several scenarios that would lead to Assad’s downfall, including military desertions or sectarian divisions. He argues that reform or a “cosmetic change” would not appease the Syrian people, and the lack of change will lead to continued bloodshed. However, anything that the U.S., the E.U., or regional Arab allies can do will shorten the conflict and could lead to a collapse of Assad’s regime.