Libyan Analysis Roundup: NATO, U.S. Leadership, Arab Spring

Brian Whitaker from the Guardian newspaper noted the current victory over the regime of Muammar Gadhafi, but stressed that the work ahead will be the hardest. He opposed any comparison of Libya to Iraq or Afghanistan noting the initial positive statements of the Transitional National Council and the arrest, not extrajudicial killing, of Saif al-Islam Gadhafi. He noted the social divisions within Libya but expressed optimism that these are not as deep or divisive as those in Iraq. He also noted the positive benefit of having the security services destroyed by NATO, saying that this will give political leaders an upper hand during the transition phase.

Blake Houndshell from Foreign Policy wrote of the apparent vindication of President Barack Obama‘s “lead from behind” strategy. He noted the relatively insignificant cost of the military operations, but noted there will be difficult work ahead in building state institutions. He stated that some mistakes will be made, but disagreed with Richard Hass President of the Council on Foreign Relations in the Financial Times that Libya needs an international stability force. Hass noted the lack of institutions in Libya and concluded that an international stability force would likely be needed to “restore and maintain order.” Daniel Serwer, from the Middle East Institute and Johns Hopkins University, also supported the foreign stability force option in a recent policy memorandum. He desired the formation of an international force under the U.N. umbrella and led by the E.U. with A.U. and Arab League participation to prevent the emergence of another authoritarian Libya or the breakup of the country. He noted the U.S. minimal interests in the country would allow it to play a more supportive role in this force.

Philip Zelikow, writing for the Financial Times, argued that the fall of Tripoli will reinvigorate the Arab Spring and increase pressure on Syria. He also noted the possibility of a unique Libyan solution to the problems of stability, unity, and division of resources.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) writing for the Guardian newspaper on Sunday condemned the NATO intervention as violating U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973. He called on the U.S. to work with the African Union to secure a peaceful resolution to the conflict, and he called for an immediate end to the war.