Libya: Leaked TNC Plans for Post-Gadhafi

The U.K. newspaper, The Times, has obtained (subscription required) a leaked copy of the Libyan Transitional National Council’s (TNC) plans for the immediate post-Gadhafi period. The plan, created with significant Western, especially British help, preserves much of the “regimes security infrastructure to avoid an Iraq-style collapse into anarchy.” The 70 page plan reveals the rebel leaderships belief that a “successful advance on Tripoli is unlikely, as is the death of Colonel Gadhafi in a NATO bombing raid.” The rebels believe he will most likely be ousted by a popular uprising.

The plan relies highly on a significant portion of the security apparatus defecting to the rebels, a risky and potentially divisive position.

The plan calls for:

• “a 10,000-15,000 strong “Tripoli task force” of guards, resourced and supported by the United Arab Emirates, to take over the Libyan capital, secure key sites and arrest high-level Gaddafi supporters;
• claims that 800 serving Gaddafi government security officials have already been recruited covertly to the rebel cause inside Tripoli, are being vetted and are ready to form the “backbone” of a new security apparatus;
• planning for approximately 5,000 policemen, now serving in units not ideologically committed to the Gaddafi regime, to be transferred immediately to the new interim government’s forces to prevent a security vacuum.”

The plan also calls for Western Nafusa mountain-area troops to enter Tripoli, not eastern Benghazi based troops, so that there is “no external imposition on Tripolitanians.”

There is also an international plan to supply $500m of gas and petrol to western Libya and a U.N. plan, with support from regional countries, to deliver immediate humanitarian assistance.

The plan has three scenarios for regime change:

Most likely: an uprising from within Tripoli, intense NATO bombing, Gadhafi flees

Less likely: increased international diplomatic pressure, many Gadhafi family defections

Least likely: rebel forces arrive in Tripoli, suicide bombings throughout the city.

The messages that the TNC wants to send to Gadhafi officials are clear: “Gaddafi officials are increasingly defecting — so should you,” and “Gaddafi has no political support left.”