Libya: Analysts Discuss Post-Gadhafi Nation-Building

Writing in Foreign Affairs, James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey discuss the prospects for post-Muammar Gadhafi nation-building. A successful transition will necessitate ensuring security, creating representative institutions, stimulating the economy, and tempering expectations. The authors conclude that the Libyan people must “translate the euphoria of their recent gains into patience and steadfastness in the months and years ahead,” while the U.S. and international community “must apply the lessons of past reconstruction efforts tempering its expectations for rapid progress and responding to local needs while avoiding the impulse for unwanted intervention.”

In The Daily Star, Rami G. Khouri argues that the lessons from Libya “provide a strong emotional impetus as well as logistical pointers to the way forward for other Arabs.” Given the history of one-party rule and the scope of changes needed, transitions in Arab countries will take time and will progress at an inconsistent pace. Khouri predicts that Syrian opposition will learn from the example of the TNC, and international attention will focus on Syria, while transitions in Bahrain and Yemen will take significantly more time.

Max Boot asserts that despite the preparedness of the TNC, “there remains a real danger of catastrophe” in post-Gadhafi Libya. To counter this threat, NATO or the U.N. should be prepared to offer economic assistance, expert advice, and likely peacekeeping troops. Finally, Gloria Goodale and Daniel B. Wood describe how the Libyan-American community continues to support the movement to oust leader Muammar Gadhafi, by joining the fight in Libya, supporting the TNC, and using social media sites to organize the opposition.