“Algeria Will Be Next to Fall”

Bruce Riedel discusses the vulnerabilities and underlying tensions that could lead to unrest in Algeria. The Arab protest movement actually began in Algeria, with massive demonstrations in January. But the fear of returning to the chaos of the 1990′s soon tempered protesters. The war in Libya has been “deeply disturbing” for Algerians, and the NATO intervention recalled bitter memories of colonialism. Nevertheless, socioeconomic and political problems, including unemployment, a youth bulge, and a growing al-Qaeda presence, make Algeria “acutely vulnerable to the contagion of the antiregime and antiestablishment unrest that has rocked the rest of the Arab world.”

Thus, in sum ”Algeria is poised between its fear of returning to chaos and violence if the army and the regime loosen up and its underlying socio-economic difficulties that cry out for political and economic reform.” And moving forward, Riedel predicts that Algeria will be left to navigate these challenges without the interference or assistance of the U.S. or the European community.