POMED Notes: Wright’s “Rock the Casbah”

On Wednesday, Robin Wright, Distinguished Scholar for the United States Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center, discussed her new book Rock the Casbah, which focuses on a new phase of Islamic activism termed “counter-jihad” by Wright. The discussion was moderated by Hala Esfandiari, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center. Video footage of the event can be found online.

For full notes, continue reading. Or click here for the pdf.

Wright began by noting that the Arab upheavals constitute the “greatest single wave of empowerment in the early twenty-first century.” Each rebellion has impacted the politics and security of the region, and redefined who is empowered in the Middle East and the larger Islamic world. Wright outlined major causes of the unrest, and specifically focused on the youth. Two-thirds of the region is under the age of 30, and for the first time the majority of youth are literate and moving beyond the basic goal of subsistence. Additionally, women are now “decisively a political force.”

The major theme of the uprisings has been the overwhelming desire of citizens “to use civil disobedience not violence.” Wright predicted that all 22 Arab countries will change significantly over the coming years, and all leaders “will have their powers changed in significant ways,” even if the majority manage to stay in power “for now.”

A secondary theme of the uprisings has been a challenge to extremism in addition to authoritarianism. Wright has termed this rejection of militancy the “counter-jihad,” and argues that it will define the coming decade.

Moving to a discussion of her book, Wright asserted that the political changes sweeping the Middle East should be understood in the context of larger cultural and social changes. She provided examples of hip-hop artists, comedians, writers, and comic book authors who have utilized new cultural mediums to challenge extremism and authoritarianism. These examples show how “the medium and the message is changing across the region.” For example, comic books are “proactively trying to create new models” for younger generations, as alternatives to extremist ideologies. The West should not make the mistake of interpreting the embrace of Western mediums as a signal that youth desire to conform to Western models. Rather, the “counter-jihad” uses tools that are both religiously and culturally familiar.

Wright also discussed the phenomenon of “the pink hijab.” Women are now expressing themselves in new ways, as they desire to be fashionable in the 21^st century while also maintaining their religious beliefs. The recent trend of women re-donning the hijab does not reflect the reemergence of support for religious extremism, and in Egypt does not signal support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

After discussing these cultural trends, Wright discussed a recent survey supported by USAID and the International Republic Institute (IRI) focusing on Tunisia. She cited the unprecedented 86% of those surveyed who planned to vote, and noted that the future is quite uncertain as 72% do not know who they will vote for. Wright implied that these results demonstrate that the “hysteria about Islamists” is unfounded. However, Wright noted that 84% support a political system that is Islamist in some way. This statistic demonstrates how the “counter-jihad” is a reclaiming of Islam, and how Tunisians desire to incorporate Islam because it is in “their political comfort zone.” Wright also said the statistic that 41% supported the 50% quota for women in the National Assembly is “rather encouraging.”

Wright concluded by predicting that the “next decade is going to be both Islamic and democratic.” It will be a “time of unprecedented transformation,” as a new generation redefines politics, society, and culture. It will be very hard for the U.S. to determine how to be most helpful in supporting these transformations, and “we are only at the beginning of the beginning,” as “change takes a long time.”

During the question and answer session, Wright noted the difference between the current, 4^th phase of Islamic revival, and previous phases. For the first time, people are being proactive, sending the message that “this is our moment, and we will define it.” And she reiterated that while Western idioms or ideas might be used, it is “very important for us to listen, and not try to be too heavy-handed as they make a lot of their own mistakes and have to learn for themselves.” The U.S. must resist the urge to take too large of a role, even with good intentions.

Wright also noted that a real Islamic spectrum has emerged in the region. The uprisings will redefine Islamist and extremist movements alike. And in regard to Egypt, Wright said that she has never feared the Muslim Brotherhood, and it is unlikely that the group will overwhelm the political system. More generally, while religion has and will continue to guide people, this does not mean that it will take over the government.

The region’s monarchies are a particular challenge for the U.S., and have exposed hypocrisies in U.S. foreign policy. Wright cited Bahrain as an example, and asserted that the U.S. “should have the same common values” in policies towards all countries in the region. Wright predicted that if the United States does not do more now to address the underlying unhappiness and tensions in the Gulf countries, we will pay the price in the future.