Ongoing Power Struggle in Yemen

Writing in Foreign Policy, Jeb Boone discusses the ongoing power struggle in Yemen. The departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh from the capital did not signal a resolution of the political struggle. Boone breaks the conflict down by region, and argues that ”while Sana’a's power brokers look to posture themselves to take seats of power, the Yemeni government has lost total control over the rest of the country.” The next government “will face the almost insurmountable task of recreating a state out of a county that has descended into regional control.”

Bernard Haykel also speculates on Yemen’s political future. While Saudi Arabia favors Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar as the next leader, he is not a viable candidate and would likely be unacceptable to the majority of Yemenis. At present, there is no leading candidate for the next ruler, as Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi lacks “the charisma or the authority to rule” beyond the transition, the street protesters do not have a unified leadership, and established opposition groups do not represent these protesters. Haykel predicts that the best outcome will be a national unity government with representatives from many divergent factions. But even if Saleh steps down, democracy is not guaranteed. Whether a peaceful transition occurs, or the country descends into civil war, will “depend largely on both what the Saudis do and what ordinary Yemenis are going to do.”

Haykel also notes that the United States has been “myopic” in its focus on the Al-Qaeda threat, since the organization’s presence is small, and it only exists because of the weak nature of the state and Saleh’s efforts to use the terrorist threat for political advantage.