POMED Notes: Congressional Hearing “Iran and Syria: Next Steps”

On Thursday the House Committee on Foreign Affairs hosted a hearing entitled “Iran and Syria: Next Steps.” The hearing was chaired by Chairwoman Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL). Also in attendance was Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA), Vice Chairman Elton Gallegly (R-CA), Gerry Connolly (D-VA), David Cicilline (D-RI), Albio Sires (D-NJ), Michael McCaul (R-TX), Chris Smith (R-IN), Bill Johnson (R-OH), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Jean Schmidt (R-OH), Jeff Duncan (R-SC), Ted Deutch (D-FL), Ben Chandler (D-KY), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Eliot Engel, (D-NY), Donald M. Payne (D-NJ), Dennis Cardoza (D-CA), Brad Sherman (D-CA), Dan Burton (R-IN), and Steve Chabot (R-OH). The witnesses were Ambassador John R. Bolton, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Olli J. Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School; and Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Notes on the event are located below the break, or can be accessed in PDF form here.

On Thursday the House Committee on Foreign Affairs hosted a hearing entitled “Iran and Syria: Next Steps.” The hearing was chaired by Chairwoman Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL). Also in attendance was Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA), Vice Chairman Elton Gallegly (R-CA), Gerry Connolly (D-VA), David Cicilline (D-RI), Albio Sires (D-NJ), Michael McCaul (R-TX), Chris Smith (R-IN), Bill Johnson (R-OH), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Jean Schmidt (R-OH), Jeff Duncan (R-SC), Ted Deutch (D-FL), Ben Chandler (D-KY), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Eliot Engel, (D-NY), Donald M. Payne (D-NJ), Dennis Cardoza (D-CA), Brad Sherman (D-CA), Dan Burton (R-IN), and Steve Chabot (R-OH). The witnesses were Ambassador John R. Bolton, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Olli J. Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School; and Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) opened the hearing discussing the “twin threats” of Iran and Syria in relation to their nuclear capabilities. She called for increased sanctions on Iran and Syria, for the realization that American strategy towards Syria and Iran “can no longer be bifurcated,” and that the U.S. must work to “definitively deny the Iran-Syria axis the wherewithal to continue their dangerous policies.”

Howard Berman (D-CA) again called for Iran to follow the U.N. Security Council directives to suspend all uranium enrichment but stressed that all options should remain on the table in dealing with this threat to American interests. He also discussed the Arab Spring and its connection with Syria. Berman said the Arab Spring appeals to American’s democratic consciousness and bedrock values but is concerned that it may threaten U.S. interests. He cited Bahrain and Yemen as examples where interests, the 5^th Fleet and counterterrorism efforts respectively, may be imperiled if democratic governments blossom. In addressing the Syrian uprising directly, he asserted that President Bashar al-Assad has relinquished all legitimacy. Berman hopes the uprising in Syria will break the Hezbollah, Iran, Syria axis, and hopes that a new Syrian regime will break Sunni terror groups like Hamas. He rejects the “devil we know” debate vis-à-vis President Assad.

Michael McCaul (R-TX), the Vice President for the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, believes Iran is the “greatest threat we have.” Gerry Connolly (D-VA) reminded the committee that as the Arab Spring unfolds, we must not be distracted from the security issues facing the United States. Bill Johnson (R-OH) commented that the engagement process with Iran and Syria has not been working and that the increased economic pressure has had an effect. He would like to continue and escalate this pressure.

Albio Sires (D-NJ) inquired how long it would take for Iran to make a nuclear bomb. Steve Chabot (R-OH) is frustrated with the Obama administration’s policy on Syria and disappointed with President Barack Obama’s statement that President Assad can still reform. Brian Higgins (D-NY) noted the role of youth and technology as the driving force behind the Arab Spring. He described a dynamic Iranian population as the best force to challenge the current regime. In Syria, he noted the use of technology, especially YouTube, as a method to break and expose the regime’s repression. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) expressed an eagerness to listen to the witness’s testimony and described Iran and Syria as “bad actors.”

Ambassador John Bolton focused his prepared testimony on the threat to American interests that Syria and Iran would play if they secured nuclear weapons technology. He described Iran and Syria as interconnected and that Iran has been helping to support the al-Assad regime. Bolton described the past twenty years of attempted engagement with Iran as “squandered” time and noted the only viable options left for the U.S. are (1) regime change or (2) the use of force to prevent a nuclear armed Iran.

Olli J. Heinonen discussed the nuclear dossiers of Iran and Syria, especially their technical capabilities and the timeline to highly enriched nuclear material. He noted that Iran would be able to generate enough fissile material for a nuclear devise sometime in 2012. Heinonen also highlighted the lack of cooperation from Syria in regards to the now destroyed Dair Alzour nuclear site.

Dr. Robert Satloff first discussed the urgency and opportunity for change in Syria. He lamented the slow pace by the Obama administration in calling for regime change in Syria, contrasted with that of Egypt. He believes the U.S. will suffer damage regionally if it “permits a chasm to open between its public posture on Syria and the tide of popular opinion inside Syria and across the region that America professes to support.” He notes that the Syrian people have spoken with as much clarity as those in Tunisia and Egypt have and that it is time for the U.S. to “speak – and act – with similar clarity and determination.” He offered many explicit policy proposals for the U.S. to act upon, including:

• Create an international contact group on Syria to show international and regional support for the Syrian people
• Consider the establishment of “humanitarian relief zones” in areas along the Syrian border
• Raise the level of U.S. dialogue with the transitional leadership of the Syrian opposition and find ways to provide the opposition with funds, training, materiel, and support
• Use the bully pulpit to agitate for change, including President Obama outlining a clearer picture on the urgency of political change in Syria

On Iran, Dr. Satloff argues the U.S. should focus its efforts in two areas: (1) increasing the believability that the U.S. will use all means necessary to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capability, and (2) expand support for Iranian democrats. This support should include:

• Outreach to the Iranian people, through increased educational, arts, and cultural engagement
• Provide access to software that enables Iranians to circumvent internet censorship, and other technologies to “break the regime’s communications monopoly”

During the Q&A, Dr. Satloff reiterated his belief that President Obama must call for President Assad to relinquish power. He also noted that in Iran and Syria, U.S. interests and values coincide, unlike in Egypt where American interests in keeping President Mubarak in power were contrary to American democratic values.

Brad Sherman asked Ambassador Bolton about the benefits of supporting dissident elements in Syria.  Bolton argued the U.S. should provide whatever assistance the Syrian opposition needs. Dr. Satloff agreed with this position.