Salem Discusses Effect of Arab Spring on Regional Players

Writing at Babylon & Beyond, Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center Paul Salem notes that the regional uprisings have not caused any shift in the region’s strategic balance. He notes that rather than gaining influence, Iran’s soft power has decreased as it’s regime looks increasingly repressive in light of the new revolutionary models of Egypt and Tunisia. While Saudi Arabia remains worried about the effect of these transformations, it has maintained its sphere of influence through intervention in countries such as Bahrain. However, Salem notes that the kingdom will need to develop a new strategy to balance the demands by citizens for better governance and social justice while preventing a growth of Iranian influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council.  He also states that while the United States has suffered setbacks, it has not lost its leverage especially given U.S. support for protesters.  Salem highlights Israel’s anxiety over the events, pointing to the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, growing unrest in Syria and Jordan, and the recent Fatah-Hamas unity deal which points to the challenges ahead for Israel which include the Palestinian Authority’s unilateral move to declare Palestinian statehood and a potential Palestinian popular uprising.

Salem also states that Turkey has “bungled the opportunity to take advantage of this historic shift to bolster its influence in the Arab world” especially given the fact that the Arab people are itching to follow the Turkish model of a democratic state “with a vibrant civil society, political pluralism, secularism alongside Islam, and a productive and fairly balanced economy.”