Geopolitics and the Arab Spring

Writing in the Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Trita Parsi and Reza Marashi discuss the regional uprisings affect on the regional power-balance.  The others note Saudi Arabia and Israel’s disapproval of the Arab Spring given the strategic and political implications for their own countries.  Parsi and Marashi state that while Saudi leaders understood there was little they could do to prevent U.S. supported revolts in Egypt and Tunisia, they moved quickly and decisively to stand against the “winds of change” in Bahrain.  Israeli politicians, such as Martin Kramer, have also expressed fears on the implications of the Arab Spring and the United States’ calls for leaders to change the status quo,  stating that “In Israel, we are for the status quo.  Not only do we believe the status quo is unsustainable, we think it’s the job of the U.S. to sustain it.”

On the other hand, “[s]ince its inception, the Islamic Republic has calculated that the Arab street would ultimately overthrow pro-American dictatorships and the Israeli status quo in the region.”  And thus, Iran has been waiting for strategic instead of tactical changes in U.S. approach to the region and will continue to use “soft power among the Arab street” especially as the U.S.-Israeli-Saudi vertex declines due to conflicting interests.   The authors state, that aside for Syria, the regional unrest has in fact strengthened Iran in the short run, however it’s “ability to profit from the the fall of the pro-American dictatorships over the long run is uncertain.”  The authors also note Iran’s main competition will come from Turkey as the country tends to also challenge the U.S.-Israeli-Saudi vertex and does so through effective and “comprehensive soft power” and standing as an acceptable model for transitioning states.  However, Parsi and Marashi note, that the emerging power status may force Turkey to choose between its own interests and values.