Analysts Review Pitfalls of Regime Change in Damascus

Several analysts offer realist assessments of the potential pitfalls of ousting Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, called it a “doomsday scenario” which would exacerbate geopolitical and sectarian tensions. The article explains that on the Israeli front, the Assad regime has “reliably not attempted” to take back Golan in forty years. Turkey will be concerned about the unrest spreading to the Kurds in the Syrian North. The Gulf States worry about a sectarian conflict with its Shia populations as well as confrontation with empowered Sunni Islamists, both of which could emerge in the wake of Assad. Iran, which has already been accused by the US administration for helping Syria put down the current protest movement, could intervene further on behalf of its chief Arab state ally. David Lesch, professor of Middle East history at Trinity University in Texas, adds that Iraq, which has only recently benefitted from Syrian cooperation in controlling the border, may descend back into chaos as the US attempts to withdraw by year’s end. Regardless of the character of the opposition, which the article also calls into question, chaos would likely take hold should Assad fall. This is because the army, an institution that has maintained order in the Egyptian and Tunisian transitions, is tied to the regime, as Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma and writer for the blog Syrian Comment, argues. A counter-argument is offered by Riad Kahwaji of the Dubai-based Institute for Gulf and Near East Military Analysis who argues that Syria’s record of supporting terrorist groups undermines any argument that the regime is a force of stability.