Possibilities for a Post-Assad Syria

Bilal Y. Saab, writing for The National Interest, argues that a collapse of the regime would have ripple effects across the Middle East and the country’s network of external relations could collapse.  He outlines two ways in which a post-Assad Syria could develop.  On the positive side, Syrian intervention in Lebanese politics could essentially be eliminated along with its support for Hezbollah.  This would significantly weaken Hezbollah he argues.  The collapse of the Assad regime could also deprive Hamas of a political base in Damascus.  This development could help spur the stalled Peace Process between Israel and the Palestinians, he posits.  There could also be a regional power balance shift as a Sunni Syrian leadership may opt for terminating its partnership with Iran which would create an arc of Sunni states in the region which would greater serve U.S. interests.  Furthermore, a democratic Syria could help security and stability in Iraq.

On the negative side, regime collapse could lead to sectarian conflict which could spread to neighboring countries and destabilize the whole region.  This is particularly worrisome in Lebanon where the specter of armed sectarian conflict is never far from the surface.  If Syrian Kurds start to demand autonomy, the Turkish military may feel the need to get involved.  Saab also states that a new government in Syria could be dominated by a more militant and assertive group of Syrian nationalists that are determined to wrest the Golan Heights back from Israel.  The Syrian branch of the Muslim brotherhood, being more radical and extreme than its Egyptian counterpart, could invite al-Qaeda to “set up shop” in the country.  Saab indicates that the best outcome that would serve U.S. interests best would be for Bashar al-Assad to dismantle his regime but remain in power.