Libya: Lessons On Intervention From A Bush Advisor

Meaghan O’Sullivan, former Deputy National Security Adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan, wrote an op-ed applying lessons from those conflicts US to Libya. The piece has elicited contrasting responses. Tom Ricks described “a visceral unhappiness reading it,” while Andrew Exum called it a mix of nostra culpa, honest talk and warnings.

One lesson: have clear goals. While the Bush administration explicit goals for Iraq, there were high-level disagreements over importance of democracy-building. This led to poor planning and resource allocation. The Obama administration has presented no acceptable outcome for Libya. Worse than vague aims is selling the best case scenario. Here, Obama has twice the troubles as his predecessor as more engagement could strain domestic support, while less engagement could disappoint Arab partners.  For coalitions bring more accountability without, for the US, reduced commitment. Here she draws on the uneventful Afghanistan handover to NATO in 2006. Finally, don’t rely on local forces too soon. External security is needed early on to build institutions. These lessons stem from the Bush administration’s late realization that political progress does not bring security. Social rifts need a period of stability before they can heal, laying the ground for coalitions.