Jadaliyya Roundtable on Syria: Part Two

As part of a Jadaliyya Roundtable, editors of the blog asked analysts Steven Heydemann, Fred Lawson, David Lesch and Patrick Seale to respond to a series of questions on the current situation in Syria.  In part two of the roundtable, contributors were asked to respond to the following question:  ”What do you consider to be missing or exaggerated in the discussion/writings/policy on the Syrian uprisings?”

In response, Heydemann states that the current debate in Washington seems to reflect revived dreams of “‘flipping’ Syria through regime change, and re-defining the regional balance of power in ways that would work decisively to America’s advantage.” They ignore, however, the realities of what democratic transition in Syria would look like.  He calls  for a long-term approach in which the U.S. helps develop the capacity of the Syrian opposition and also noted Syria’s history of republican government in the 1940s and 1950s.  Lawson notes that many have seemed to ignore reports that protests began in these small towns not due to local grievances and not grievances against the regime.  He also questions the role of economic strain of the drought and industrial, commercial and agricultural circumstances as drivers of protests.  Lesch notes the exclusive coverage of the extreme anti-government groups and pro-government groups, and states that in reality it will be the silent majority — including different elite groups — that will determine the course.  Seale argues that analysts have ignored the mind-set of Bashar Al Assad who feels a sense of pride for enduring “the many crises he has had to deal with in his decade of power” and the legitimacy he has gained for his anti-Israel and anti-West sentiments.  He stated in his speech that he had other priorities to be concerned with such as stability and protection of citizens and apologized for failing to enact reform.