CNN Asks Experts to Comment on Future of “Arab Spring”

Given the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, CNN.com asked five experts to address how the “Arab Spring” will play out in the coming months.   Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, states that in the coming months we will see a new paradigm for political transition in the Middle East as dictators use more forceful means to quell popular uprisings. Nader Hashemi notes the misnomer of  ”Arab Spring” given the differing internal dynamics of the countries, but notes that the days are numbered for Arab dictators.   Parag Khanna, senior research fellow with the New America Foundation, argues that the region is likely to remain volatile especially  in Egypt during the lead up to parliamentary elections and in Bahrain where the government has suppressed the opposition instead of addressing its concerns.  He also notes the role the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf countries can play in supporting structural economic modernization throughout the region.

Julie Taylor, a political scientist at the RAND Corp., stated that in the next six months, we will likely see regime change in Yemen and Libya.  Taylor also notes the Syrian armed forces  commitment to President Bashar al-Assad and the strong support the regime will likely receive from Iran for a mass crackdown.  Feryal Cherif draws parallels between the events in Egypt and those in Syria where both leaders offered concessions in hopes of appeasing protesters, but tended to remain a step behind protesters’ demands.  She notes, however, that Syria lacks the presence of a strong civil society and experience with activism, which will likely hinder their movement.