Don’t Forget About Bahrain

Writing at Foreign Policy, Mohammed Ayoob states that while Libya is important, we should not forget about Bahrain where regime change may, in the long run, be an even more momentous event.  Bahrain is  not only located in a region with around 60 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40 percent of it’s natural gas reserves, it is also a member of the regional security organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose members share many characteristics of the Bahraini regime.  All Gulf monarchies are to varying degrees rentier states whose regimes consider their natural resources family property and use their resources to buy support from “largely politically apathetic subjects.”  With the exception of Oman, these regimes draw their legitimacy from Sunni Islam “bestowing upon them a sectarian character, potentially destabilizing for the regimes ” given the substantial Shia populations in these countries.

Ayoob argues that it is unsurprising that the “the first spark of the democratic movement in the Gulf be lit in Bahrain because it is the weakest link in the autocratic chain in that region.”  He also states that the regime has mishandled the situation and there by escalated protesters’ demands.  Lastly, he notes that if the pro-democracy movement succeeds in Bahrain it will not only have far reaching consequences on the autocratic Arab rulers as well as their external patrons and supporters, but will also tilt the regional balance of power in favor of Iran.