Will Tunisian-Style Revolution Spread?

A piece in Foreign Policy outlines possibilities for a Tunisia-style revolt happening elsewhere in the Arab world.  Five countries are singled out as particularly ripe for such events: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Jordan as they share many of the same problems at the root of Tunisia’s revolt – a government legitimacy deficit, economic stagnation, endemic corruption, high unemployment, and a demographic youth bulge.  Laurie A. Brand, also writing for Foreign Policy, argues that a replication of Tunisia will not happen in Jordan.  She states that current protests in Jordan are targeting the government led by Prime Minister Samir al-Rifai. However, the PM and his cabinet have little real influence on policy matters, as they are decided by the King and his close advisors in practice.  In Jordanian society, however, the King is usually viewed as “being above the fray” she argues.  Amr el-Shobaki, in a piece for AlMasry AlYoum, also openly doubts that Egypt will follow the path of Tunisia.  El-Shobaki cites Egypt’s highly sectarian and divided society, poverty, illiteracy, and underdevelopment as reasons why Egyptians cannot unite in the same way Tunisians did.