February 10th, 2010 by Jessica

As the anniversary of Iran’s Islamic revolution approaches tomorrow, many speculate on the outcome of potential protests on what has traditionally been a national holiday.  An interesting article in The Christian Science Monitor argues that the success or failure of such movements depends on the motivations and strategy of those involved, and that the role of internet tools like Facebook and Twitter may be overstated. Peter Ackerman of the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict in Washington comments, “unless there is a strategy for creating loyalty shifts to the other side and a set of goals everyone can unify around, you’re not going to get where you need to be.”  Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi announced his participation in the protests on his website, which could cause an escalation in tensions. Ali Motahari a member and supporter of the current regime, in a letter to Mousavi, admonishes the Green Movement leader, suggesting that his actions are blocking the very reforms that he his seeking to implement.

While the Green Movement has incorporated technology into its strategy to keep activism alive, the regime has also formulated strategies to countermand the opposition. Clifford D. May of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies comments on the steps taken by Iranian government to quell the demonstrations. May’s article compares Iran’s preparation to a “Chinese solution,” describing the importation of approximately 300,000 “volunteers”.  Green Movement protesters appear undeterred by these numbers, with speculation that the numbers of opposition members will approach, “3 million increasingly angry people, demanding freedom and justice.”  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced the opposition, suggesting that its participants were being manipulated by Western countries.

In an interesting interview at Foreign Policy, Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who later become disillusioned with the movement and the regime, voices the belief that the February 11th protests will be a turning point for both the regime and the opposition. Sazegara predicts that following the protests, the balance of power between the nation and the regime with change in favor of the Iranian people, leading to a “final action” against the regime, “In any movement like that, there is an action that the government can’t return from. Many sources of its power will be overcome by the people … We think the regime can rely only on 30,000 troops among the police, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basij. They don’t have any volunteers, they have lots of cracks now, and after Feb. 11 they will have less than that. They are melting gradually in front of the nation.”

Posted in Iran, Protests |