Iran: Protests Continue, Mousavi Fired

Time reports that security forces fired tear gas and beat opposition protesters who were attending a memorial for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri today.  According to one Isfahan resident who tried to attend the memorial, “tens of thousands gathered outside for the memorial but were savagely attacked by security forces and the Basijis.” Iran’s head of police warned that there would be a “fierce” confrontation if “illegal” protests continued.

In addition to such clashes in Isfahan and elsewhere, Juan Cole cites a militia raid against the office of reformist cleric Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei in Qom, and  Gregg Carlstrom provides more details from several reformist websites. Cole argues such tactics reveal the regime’s concern “about liberalizing clergymen who might assume the mantle of Montazeri, a regime critic with impressive scholarly credentials.”

The Lede blog reports on the raid against Sanei’s office as well, while also relaying the decision of Montazeri’s family to cancel traditional mourning rituals held a week after death, which coincidentally lines up with Ashura, the Shi’ite day of mourning.  The family cited security concerns for their decision. Nonetheless, Nicholas Goldberg contends that Montazeri’s life and death show “that the revolution that was made in Qom could be undone in Qom as well.”

Meanwhile, opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi has been fired from his position as head of the Academy of Arts, apparently at the request of President Ahmadinejad. In response, the vast majority of faculty members have threatened to quit in solidarity. In a comprehensive piece covering the reaction to Montazeri’s death, Michael Allen observes that both Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi “appear increasingly marginal, trying to defend or revive the Islamic Republic within a green opposition that appears more inclined to push for regime change and a more secular, democratic republic.”

Elaborating further, Mea Cyrus at Tehran Bureau argues that opposition leaders like Montazeri, Mousavi, and Karroubi “are favored by educated, secular elite only because they share a common goal: ousting Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. But until the time comes when the opposition movement is capable of producing leaders of its own, religious figures and ex-officials, dead or alive, are a good base to build upon.”

Marty Peretz believes “that the Iranian regime is trembling, trembling from fear of its own people.” In agreement, John Bolton cites three reasons for the regime’s unpopularity: the poor economy, dissatisfied youth, and ethnic discontent.  While Bolton clamors for military strikes, Nader Mousavizadeh pleads for the U.S. to not give the Iranian regime a “lifeline” by imposing harsh sanctions or undertaking military strikes, actions the hardliners in Tehran hope to provoke. Instead, the U.S. should place the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom “at the core of every policy decision.”

Tony Karon blames the current impasse in nuclear negotiations on Iran’s internal turmoil and the Obama administration’s failure to adapt its goals while imposing strict deadlines.  He concludes, “with both Obama and Ahmadinejad having been painted into corners, the deadlock is unlikely to be broken by the sanctions that are expected to be put in place in the coming months.” Finally, Laura Rozen reports on a new simulation from Tel Aviv University that corroborates a previous Harvard simulation’s conclusion that U.S. unilateral sanctions would likely backfire.