November 12th, 2009 by Jason

A new Arab Reform Bulletin has been released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In this issue, Sam Parker explains why the passing of the Iraq election law provides a “fair” outcome for the Kurds while also offering a “small victory” to the anti-Kurd forces. The election law will allow Kurds on the 2009 voting rolls to vote normally, despite fears by anti-Kurd politicians that Kurds are moving to Kirkuk en masse to alter political outcomes. However, the law also stipulates a mechanism to investigate fraud, should the voting outcome appear suspicious. Parker concludes that the “national elections law debate is emblematic of the current state of Iraqi politics: slow, messy, and factionalized, but ultimately democratic and successful in achieving the minimum necessary to carry Iraq forward without falling apart.”

Ibrahim Al-Houdaiby contends that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt will face a “leadership challenge” after Mohamed Mahdi Akef steps down in January as General Guide. According to Al-Houdaiby, no potential successor possesses the same “historical legitimacy” or ability to bridge internal divides as Akef. Therefore, the MB must “institutionalize decision-making to sustain itself,” as they have begun to do already under Akef. In addition, Al-Houdaiby discusses how the increasing popularity of Salafism and the continuing crackdown by the Egyptian regime “pushes the Brotherhood in a less moderate direction.” Finally, Al-Houdaiby explores how the next Guide might be elected, whether through compromise, dictate by the more powerful conservatives or through a temporary appointment until important MB leaders are eventually released from prison.

Saif Nasrawi also writes about Egypt but focuses on the growing political awareness and clout of the labor movement.  For the past several decades, the state-controlled Egyptian Trade Unions Federation (EFTU) has held a monopoly on representing workers, but now several developments have begun to chip away at the government’s predominance. According to the president of the Independent Real Estate Tax Collectors Union, the EFTU is “a mere extension of the National Democratic Party-backed businessmen government.” As such, Nasrawi contends that while the labor movement has focused on “neutralizing the state’s political and security apparatuses,” it avoids directly confronting the regime like Kifaya and other opposition movements.

Omran Al-Risheq asks what happened to Hamas in the West Bank. While Hamas has suffered several security setbacks at the hands of the Israelis and Fatah, Al-Risheq contends Hamas has also made a conscious decision to maintain a low profile. Hamas believes that President Abbas, unlike Yasser Arafat, would not think twice about destroying Hamas if they prove “too much of a nuisance.” Hamas also is convinced that time is on their side as Abbas fails to make progress on the peace process and especially a settlement freeze. According to Al-Risheq, “West Bank Palestinians view Hamas as a symbol of resistance to Israeli and U.S. domination, whereas Gazans - who have had a chance to test governance by Hamas - sees its performance as similar to, if not worse than, that of the corrupt PA leadership.”

Omar Ashour declares “a post-jihadist era has began” that delegitimizes political violence and criticizes Islamists who still partake in violence. Ashour specifically cites ‘Abbud al-Zumur of the Egyptian Islamic Group, whose new book “argues for the necessity of electoral participation as well as for alliance with the ideological ‘other.’” This book is the latest example of a resurgent wave in Islamist thinking that acknowledges “the inevitable acceptance of democratization.”

In the final article, Aziz Douai chronicles the recent struggles of Morocco’s independent press. According to Douai, “a feisty Moroccan press with a new breed of independent journalists has grown in influence and popularity despite mixed signals from the palace.” A new press code legislated in 2002 provides a new opening for journalistic freedom, but the government has left open loopholes to “constrain and silence critical and independent publications.” Meanwhile, the effort to enact a new press code has stalled amongst “in-fighting and petty feuds” within the independent press establishment.

Posted in Algeria, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Hamas, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Israel, Journalism, Legislation, Libya, Military, Morocco, Muslim Brotherhood, North Africa, Palestine, Political Islam, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Publications, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism |